Short Trade on AERO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1877.74 AERO at 0.418$ per unit. Take profit: 0.4073 (2.54 %) & Stop Loss: 0.4222 (1.03 %)
10 Aug 2026 at 11:13:11
hyperliquid
AERO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
10 Aug 2026 11:13
→ 23:00
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.4179$
Qty 1877.7403 AERO
Size 784.7265$ (margin 100$) (leverage 8)
Risk Setup
TP 0.4073 (+2.54%)
TP $ 19.9$
SL 0.4222 (-1.03%)
SL $ 8.07$
RR 2.47
Status
loss
PnL
-0.03%
/ -0.26$
MAE -0.43%
MFE +1.20%
1.2R
expires
10 Aug 23:13
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 64711)
#36 / 49
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 10/08/2026 11:00
score du 10/08/2026 11:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6445
Quality Score
0.5
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
74 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
1
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
10/08 11:02
10/08 11:02
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#36 / 49
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
74 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+3
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+3
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.03 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#36 / 49
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
74 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+3
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.03 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.02×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 2.66×ATR |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 1d | — | — | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : bear_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 10/08 11:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 10/08 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 10/08 10:00 Score : +3 / ±6 |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.029%
(0.0043)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.197% | 1.2R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.197% | 1.2R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +1.197% | 1.2R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +1.197% | 1.2R | -0.093% | 0.1R | 12.8× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.197% | 1.2R | -0.428% | 0.4R | 2.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.197% | 1.2R | -2.161% | 2.1R | 0.6× | 288 |
computed 1 day ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 2.46
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | — | ||||||||||||||||
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | — | — | 0.54 | range_medium | +0.52% | -0.34 | 10/08 08:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
48%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | near 0.0ATR | — | 0.55 | range_low | -0.02% | +0.00 | 10/08 10:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | balanced | volatile_reversal | range_medium |
33%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | near -0.2ATR | — | 0.58 | range_low | -0.38% | +0.06 | 10/08 10:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h | ↑ up | mid | 4b | — | 0.435×ATR | p0 | -1.145×ATR | p63 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 2b | — | 3.616×ATR | p71 | -0.89×ATR | p43 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 10b | — | 6.099×ATR | p90 | -0.77×ATR | p40 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7368
- reason: down_bo width=1.75×ATR dur=31b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.42217044
- tp_price: 0.40725889
- atr:
- score: 0.73678224430117
- expires_at: 2026-08-11T03:13:04.161081
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.73678224430117
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0117
- obi_top10 : 0.0817
- micro_price : 0.41325818
- spread_pct : 0.072604
- mid_price : 0.41335
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.42
- ask_wall_size : 68183.4
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0299
- obi_top5_std : 0.1299
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6976
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.42519
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.41837
- balance_zone_mid:
0.42178
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786266000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786374000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.7467
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
31
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7368
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786370400
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.41837
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6774
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.1178
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
8
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
12
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00390444 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
31
inside_close_ratio
0.6774
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.1178
Signaux confirmants (50)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:13 | 0.41791000 | +0.002% |
| 2 | 11:19 | 0.41535000 | -0.61% |
| 3 | 11:25 | 0.41535000 | -0.61% |
| 4 | 11:31 | 0.41535000 | -0.61% |
| 5 | 11:37 | 0.41535000 | -0.61% |
| 6 | 11:42 | 0.41367000 | -1.012% |
| 7 | 11:48 | 0.41367000 | -1.012% |
| 8 | 11:53 | 0.41408000 | -0.914% |
| 9 | 11:59 | 0.41408000 | -0.914% |
| 10 | 12:06 | 0.41408000 | -0.914% |
| 11 | 12:11 | 0.41490000 | -0.718% |
| 12 | 12:17 | 0.41490000 | -0.718% |
| 13 | 12:23 | 0.41498000 | -0.699% |
| 14 | 12:28 | 0.41498000 | -0.699% |
| 15 | 12:35 | 0.41498000 | -0.699% |
| 16 | 12:41 | 0.41492000 | -0.713% |
| 17 | 12:47 | 0.41492000 | -0.713% |
| 18 | 12:53 | 0.41447000 | -0.821% |
| 19 | 12:58 | 0.41447000 | -0.821% |
| 20 | 13:06 | 0.41447000 | -0.821% |
| 21 | 13:11 | 0.41427000 | -0.869% |
| 22 | 13:17 | 0.41427000 | -0.869% |
| 23 | 13:23 | 0.41561000 | -0.548% |
| 24 | 13:29 | 0.41561000 | -0.548% |
| 25 | 13:35 | 0.41561000 | -0.548% |
| 26 | 13:41 | 0.41569000 | -0.529% |
| 27 | 13:47 | 0.41569000 | -0.529% |
| 28 | 13:52 | 0.41445000 | -0.826% |
| 29 | 13:58 | 0.41445000 | -0.826% |
| 30 | 14:06 | 0.41445000 | -0.826% |
| 31 | 14:11 | 0.41496000 | -0.704% |
| 32 | 14:17 | 0.41496000 | -0.704% |
| 33 | 14:22 | 0.41504000 | -0.684% |
| 34 | 14:28 | 0.41504000 | -0.684% |
| 35 | 14:35 | 0.41504000 | -0.684% |
| 36 | 14:41 | 0.41453000 | -0.806% |
| 37 | 14:47 | 0.41453000 | -0.806% |
| 38 | 14:52 | 0.41497000 | -0.701% |
| 39 | 14:58 | 0.41497000 | -0.701% |
| 40 | 15:06 | 0.41497000 | -0.701% |
| 41 | 15:11 | 0.41546000 | -0.584% |
| 42 | 15:17 | 0.41546000 | -0.584% |
| 43 | 15:23 | 0.41620000 | -0.407% |
| 44 | 15:28 | 0.41620000 | -0.407% |
| 45 | 15:35 | 0.41620000 | -0.407% |
| 46 | 15:40 | 0.41822000 | +0.077% |
| 47 | 15:47 | 0.41822000 | +0.077% |
| 48 | 15:53 | 0.41794000 | +0.01% |
| 49 | 15:58 | 0.41794000 | +0.01% |
| 50 | 16:06 | 0.41794000 | +0.01% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6976ms
Confidence avant OB :
74%
→
74%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.012
avg 0.030
± 0.130
OBI Top 10
0.082
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.4134
Micro Price
0.4133
Spread
0.0726%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.4200
Size
68,183.40
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.4179 | 0.4222 | 0.4073 | 2.47 | 0.4094 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.4179
- Stop Loss: 0.4222
- Take Profit: 0.4073
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.4222 - 0.4179 = 0.0043
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.4179 - 0.4073 = 0.0106
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0106 / 0.0043 = 2.4651
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 784.7265 | 100 | 1877.7403 | 8.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0043
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0043 = 1860.47
Taille de position USD = 1860.47 x 0.4179 = 777.49
Donc, tu peux acheter 1860.47 avec un stoploss a 0.4222
Avec un position size USD de 777.49$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1860.47 x 0.0043 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1860.47 x 0.0106 = 19.72
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.72$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1860.47
- Taille de position USD 777.49
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.72
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4651
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.54 % | 19.9 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.03 % | 8.07 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -0.26 $ | -0.03 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.4283 % | 41.62 % | 17 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.4179 | 0.4222 | 0.4073 | 2.47 | 0.4094 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.4179
- Stop Loss: 0.4222
- Take Profit: 0.4073
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.4222 - 0.4179 = 0.0043
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.4179 - 0.4073 = 0.0106
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0106 / 0.0043 = 2.4651
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.029%
(0.0043)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.197% | 1.2R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.197% | 1.2R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +1.197% | 1.2R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +1.197% | 1.2R | -0.093% | 0.1R | 12.8× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.197% | 1.2R | -0.428% | 0.4R | 2.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.197% | 1.2R | -2.161% | 2.1R | 0.6× | 288 |
computed 1 day ago
Commentaires
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