Long Trade on MORPHO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 209.12 MORPHO at 1.963$ per unit. Take profit: 2.0584 (4.87 %) & Stop Loss: 1.9245 (1.95 %)
10 Aug 2026 at 23:39:21
hyperliquid
MORPHO
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
10 Aug 2026 23:39
→ 11:30
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 1.9628$
Qty 209.1181 MORPHO
Size 410.4571$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 2.0584 (+4.87%)
TP $ 19.99$
SL 1.9245 (-1.95%)
SL $ 8.01$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+1.22%
/ +5$
MAE -1.05%
MFE +1.90%
1.0R
expires
11 Aug 11:39
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 65306)
#15 / 50
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 10/08/2026 23:00
score du 10/08/2026 23:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4826
Quality Score
0.578
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
10/08 23:31
10/08 23:31
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#15 / 50
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+3
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+2
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.95 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#15 / 50
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+2
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.95 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 0.76×ATR |
| 4h | near | 0.21×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.67×ATR |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : bear_low (-1) 10/08 23:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) 10/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 10/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 10/08 23:00 Score : +3 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.5783
Score SMA
0.5522
Rank
#15
/ 50
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4826
Rank Norm SMA
0.5359
Calculé le
10/08/2026 23:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6169 | r1h: 1.375% · r4h: 2.484% · r1d: 1.29% · r3d: 5.51% · ema21_slope: -0.0236% · dist_ema21: 1.581% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.7024 | rs_1h: 1.397% · rs_4h: 2.443% · rs_1d: 2.90% · rs_3d: 6.83% · beta_24h: 0.513 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2058 | rvol_20: 0.47× · zscore_50: -0.211 · trend: -35.14% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5099 | ADX: 15.9 (weak) · Chop: 53.3 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.825% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.951%
(0.0383)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.336% | 0.2R | -0.662% | 0.3R | 0.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.336% | 0.2R | -0.851% | 0.4R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.336% | 0.2R | -1.004% | 0.5R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.070% | 0.6R | -1.050% | 0.5R | 1.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.895% | 1.0R | -1.050% | 0.5R | 1.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.895% | 1.0R | -1.050% | 0.5R | 1.8× | 288 |
computed 6 days ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 1.12
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | range_high |
40%
|
noisy_chop 29% | early | — | — | 0.57 | bear_high | -4.25% | +0.38 | 10/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion | bull_high |
66%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | — | near 0.2ATR | 0.26 | range_medium | -0.42% | +0.64 | 10/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | normal | bull_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 35% | late | — | — | 0.30 | bear_low | -0.83% | +0.31 | 10/08 23:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bull_medium |
55%
|
noisy_chop 51% | late | — | near 0.2ATR | — | range_low | -0.41% | +0.20 | 10/08 23:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 17b | — | 2.568×ATR | p0 | -0.15×ATR | p10 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 4b | — | 0.264×ATR | p0 | +1.503×ATR | p89 |
| 1h | ↑ up | late | 6b | — | 3.468×ATR | p67 | +1.961×ATR | p88 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 12b | — | 4.289×ATR | p89 | +1.984×ATR | p89 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.8838
- reason: up_bo width=2.11×ATR dur=58b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(+0.07)
- stop_price: 1.92454411
- tp_price: 2.05843973
- atr:
- score: 0.81383634547791
- expires_at: 2026-08-11T15:39:14.010544
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.81383634547791
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.2038
- obi_top10 : 0.1663
- micro_price : 1.95835
- spread_pct : 0.076624
- mid_price : 1.95835
- bid_wall_price : 1.93
- bid_wall_size : 46549
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 1.97
- ask_wall_size : 26855
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.2054
- obi_top5_std : 0.0016
- pressure_side : bid
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7145
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
1.9431
- balance_zone_bottom:
1.9092
- balance_zone_mid:
1.92615
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786212000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786417200
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.111
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
58
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8138
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786413600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
1.9431
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8103
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.2267
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
14
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
4
- regime : bull_high
- atr_entry : 0.01605892 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
58
inside_close_ratio
0.8103
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.2267
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↑ bid
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7145ms
Confidence avant OB :
81%
→
88%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.204
avg 0.205
± 0.002
OBI Top 10
0.166
Microstructure
Mid Price
1.9584
Micro Price
1.9584
Spread
0.0766%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
1.9300
Size
46,549.00
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
1.9700
Size
26,855.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.9628 | 1.9245 | 2.0584 | 2.5 | 2.1829 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1.9628
- Stop Loss: 1.9245
- Take Profit: 2.0584
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.9245 - 1.9628 = -0.0383
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.9628 - 2.0584 = -0.0956
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0956 / -0.0383 = 2.4961
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 410.4571 | 100 | 209.1181 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -0.0383
Taille de position = 8 / -0.0383 = -208.88
Taille de position USD = -208.88 x 1.9628 = -409.99
Donc, tu peux acheter -208.88 avec un stoploss a 1.9245
Avec un position size USD de -409.99$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -208.88 x -0.0383 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -208.88 x -0.0956 = 19.97
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.97$
Résumé
- Taille de position -208.88
- Taille de position USD -409.99
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.97
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4961
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.87 % | 19.99 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.95 % | 8.01 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 5 $ | 1.22 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.0495 % | 53.78 % | 9 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.9628 | 1.9245 | 2.0584 | 2.5 | 2.1829 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1.9628
- Stop Loss: 1.9245
- Take Profit: 2.0584
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.9245 - 1.9628 = -0.0383
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.9628 - 2.0584 = -0.0956
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0956 / -0.0383 = 2.4961
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.951%
(0.0383)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.336% | 0.2R | -0.662% | 0.3R | 0.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.336% | 0.2R | -0.851% | 0.4R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.336% | 0.2R | -1.004% | 0.5R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.070% | 0.6R | -1.050% | 0.5R | 1.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.895% | 1.0R | -1.050% | 0.5R | 1.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.895% | 1.0R | -1.050% | 0.5R | 1.8× | 288 |
computed 6 days ago
Commentaires
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