Short Trade on AVAX (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 83.28 AVAX at 6.422$ per unit. Take profit: 6.1823 (3.74 %) & Stop Loss: 6.5185 (1.5 %)
11 Aug 2026 at 10:12:39
hyperliquid
AVAX
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
11 Aug 2026 10:12
→ 11:00
· 47 minutes
Position
Entry 6.4224$
Qty 83.2822 AVAX
Size 534.8718$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)
Risk Setup
TP 6.1823 (+3.74%)
TP $ 20$
SL 6.5185 (-1.5%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+3.74%
/ +20$
MAE -0.00%
MFE +4.83%
3.2R
expires
11 Aug 22:12
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 65815)
#36 / 46
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 11/08/2026 10:00
score du 11/08/2026 10:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3888
Quality Score
0.485
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
77 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
1
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
11/08 10:00
11/08 10:00
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#36 / 46
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
77 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.50 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#36 / 46
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
77 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.50 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.64×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.98×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.19×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 11/08 10:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 10/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 11/08 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1) 11/08 09:00 Score : +4 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.4854
Score SMA
0.5210
Rank
#36
/ 46
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3888
Rank Norm SMA
0.4558
Calculé le
11/08/2026 10:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4517 | r1h: -0.509% · r4h: -0.942% · r1d: -1.26% · r3d: -1.06% · ema21_slope: 0.0089% · dist_ema21: -0.677% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4667 | rs_1h: -0.278% · rs_4h: -0.743% · rs_1d: -0.65% · rs_3d: 0.23% · beta_24h: 1.126 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3386 | rvol_20: 1.02× · zscore_50: 0.154 · trend: -15.81% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4367 | ADX: 10.9 (weak) · Chop: 57.2 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.614% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.496%
(0.0961)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +4.828% | 3.2R | -0.002% | 0.0R | 3,017.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +4.828% | 3.2R | -0.002% | 0.0R | 3,017.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +4.828% | 3.2R | -0.002% | 0.0R | 3,017.8× | 48 |
| 8h | +4.828% | 3.2R | -0.002% | 0.0R | 3,017.8× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +4.828% | 3.2R | -0.002% | 0.0R | 3,017.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +4.828% | 3.2R | -1.836% | 1.2R | 2.6× | 288 |
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 60
ML Pullback Score: 7.29
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early | — | near -0.4ATR | 0.78 | bear_high | -3.51% | +0.07 | 10/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | range_high |
34%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early | near -1.0ATR | — | 0.63 | range_medium | +0.00% | +0.03 | 11/08 08:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | compression | bear_medium |
59%
|
noisy_chop 43% | mid | near -0.6ATR | — | 0.49 | range_low | -0.61% | -0.09 | 11/08 09:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | normal | range_low |
39%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | — | — | — | range_low | -0.17% | -0.06 | 11/08 09:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early | 10b | — | 1.742×ATR | p0 | -0.015×ATR | p2 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 9b | — | 1.184×ATR | p0 | -0.259×ATR | p19 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 2b | — | 1.888×ATR | p28 | -1.133×ATR | p66 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 10b | — | 4.041×ATR | p75 | -2.017×ATR | p87 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7716
- reason: down_bo width=2.89×ATR dur=36b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
- stop_price: 6.51845891
- tp_price: 6.18225274
- atr:
- score: 0.87156485760711
- expires_at: 2026-08-12T02:12:31.480787
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.87156485760711
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.2574
- obi_top10 : 0.3023
- micro_price : 6.4169973
- spread_pct : 0.015586
- mid_price : 6.4165
- bid_wall_price : 6.4
- bid_wall_size : 96670.6
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 6.52
- ask_wall_size : 80793
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.2548
- obi_top5_std : 0.0017
- pressure_side : bid
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7090
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
6.5707
- balance_zone_bottom:
6.45845
- balance_zone_mid:
6.514575
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786330800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786456800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.8901
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
36
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8716
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786453200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
6.45845
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8056
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.9282
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
3
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
4
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.03883905 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
36
inside_close_ratio
0.8056
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.9282
Signaux confirmants (4)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:12 | 6.42240000 | 0% |
| 2 | 10:18 | 6.41730000 | -0.079% |
| 3 | 10:24 | 6.41730000 | -0.079% |
| 4 | 10:30 | 6.41730000 | -0.079% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↑ bid
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7090ms
Confidence avant OB :
87%
→
77%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.257
avg 0.255
± 0.002
OBI Top 10
0.302
Microstructure
Mid Price
6.4165
Micro Price
6.4170
Spread
0.0156%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
6.4000
Size
96,670.60
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
6.5200
Size
80,793.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4224 | 6.5185 | 6.1823 | 2.5 | 7.8315 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 6.4224
- Stop Loss: 6.5185
- Take Profit: 6.1823
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 6.5185 - 6.4224 = 0.096100000000001
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 6.4224 - 6.1823 = 0.2401
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2401 / 0.096100000000001 = 2.4984
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 534.8718 | 100 | 83.2822 | 5.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.096100000000001
Taille de position = 8 / 0.096100000000001 = 83.25
Taille de position USD = 83.25 x 6.4224 = 534.66
Donc, tu peux acheter 83.25 avec un stoploss a 6.5185
Avec un position size USD de 534.66$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 83.25 x 0.096100000000001 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 83.25 x 0.2401 = 19.99
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.99$
Résumé
- Taille de position 83.25
- Taille de position USD 534.66
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.99
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4984
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.74 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.5 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 20 $ | 3.74 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.0016 % | 0.11 % | 1 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4224 | 6.5185 | 6.1823 | 2.5 | 7.8315 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 6.4224
- Stop Loss: 6.5185
- Take Profit: 6.1823
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 6.5185 - 6.4224 = 0.096100000000001
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 6.4224 - 6.1823 = 0.2401
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2401 / 0.096100000000001 = 2.4984
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
[2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 6.2302
[stop_loss] => 6.5185
[rr_ratio] => 2
[closed_at] => 2026-08-11 14:55:00+00
[result] => win
)
[2.5] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 6.18215
[stop_loss] => 6.5185
[rr_ratio] => 2.5
[closed_at] => 2026-08-11 15:00:00+00
[result] => win
)
[3] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 6.1341
[stop_loss] => 6.5185
[rr_ratio] => 3
[closed_at] => 2026-08-11 15:00:00+00
[result] => win
)
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.496%
(0.0961)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +4.828% | 3.2R | -0.002% | 0.0R | 3,017.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +4.828% | 3.2R | -0.002% | 0.0R | 3,017.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +4.828% | 3.2R | -0.002% | 0.0R | 3,017.8× | 48 |
| 8h | +4.828% | 3.2R | -0.002% | 0.0R | 3,017.8× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +4.828% | 3.2R | -0.002% | 0.0R | 3,017.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +4.828% | 3.2R | -1.836% | 1.2R | 2.6× | 288 |
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
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