Short Trade on ARB (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 4301.77 ARB at 0.0781$ per unit. Take profit: 0.0735 (5.95 %) & Stop Loss: 0.08001 (2.38 %)
11 Aug 2026 at 11:07:01
hyperliquid
ARB
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
11 Aug 2026 11:07
→ 19:35
· 8 hours
Position
Entry 0.07815$
Qty 4301.7691 ARB
Size 336.1833$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 0.0735 (+5.95%)
TP $ 20$
SL 0.08001 (-2.38%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-2.38%
/ -8$
MAE -3.40%
MFE +1.05%
0.4R
expires
11 Aug 23:06
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 65864)
#20 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 11/08/2026 11:00
score du 11/08/2026 11:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5497
Quality Score
0.544
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
71 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
2
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
11/08 11:00
11/08 11:00
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#20 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
71 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+5
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.38 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#20 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
71 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.38 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 0.69×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.12×ATR |
| 1d | near | 0.29×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low_confirmed rules_regime_5m : bear_low Score : 2 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : bear_low_confirmed (+1) 11/08 11:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 10/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 11/08 08:00 Tactical (1H) : range_high (0) 11/08 10:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.5435
Score SMA
0.5436
Rank
#20
/ 46
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5497
Rank Norm SMA
0.6115
Calculé le
11/08/2026 11:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4768 | r1h: -0.588% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.69% · r3d: -0.38% · ema21_slope: -0.0141% · dist_ema21: -0.623% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5154 | rs_1h: -0.227% · rs_4h: 0.421% · rs_1d: 0.35% · rs_3d: 1.42% · beta_24h: 1.252 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4851 | rvol_20: 1.49× · zscore_50: 0.398 · trend: 25.09% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4971 | ADX: 16.9 (weak) · Chop: 55.9 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.846% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.380%
(0.0019)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.947% | 0.4R | -0.512% | 0.2R | 1.9× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.947% | 0.4R | -0.512% | 0.2R | 1.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.049% | 0.4R | -0.512% | 0.2R | 2.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.049% | 0.4R | -1.523% | 0.6R | 0.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.049% | 0.4R | -3.404% | 1.4R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.049% | 0.4R | -3.404% | 1.4R | 0.3× | 288 |
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.93
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | near 0.3ATR | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -3.51% | -0.71 | 10/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | — | — | 0.61 | range_medium | -0.29% | +0.25 | 11/08 08:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | range_high |
37%
|
noisy_chop 42% | early | — | — | 0.36 | bear_low | -0.92% | -0.08 | 11/08 10:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | expansion_after_compression | range_low |
38%
|
noisy_chop 43% | mid | near -0.9ATR | — | — | range_low | -0.48% | -0.03 | 11/08 10:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 30b | — | 5.864×ATR | p83 | -0.184×ATR | p7 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 9b | — | 1.817×ATR | p0 | +0.199×ATR | p12 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 2b | — | 1.564×ATR | p0 | -0.824×ATR | p46 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 9b | — | 3.448×ATR | p57 | -1.318×ATR | p65 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7142
- reason: down_bo width=1.98×ATR dur=33b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
- stop_price: 0.0800097
- tp_price: 0.07350075
- atr:
- score: 0.81418248723901
- expires_at: 2026-08-12T03:06:53.279173
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.81418248723901
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.3295
- obi_top10 : 0.0533
- micro_price : 0.07805743
- spread_pct : 0.128205
- mid_price : 0.07805
- bid_wall_price : 0.0776
- bid_wall_size : 1421598.4
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.0787
- ask_wall_size : 1424661.08
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.3329
- obi_top5_std : 0.0042
- pressure_side : bid
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7128
- aggregation_tick : 0.0001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.080675
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.079195
- balance_zone_mid:
0.079935
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786345200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786460400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.9813
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
33
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8142
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786456800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.079195
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8485
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.3989
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
8
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
3
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.000747 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
33
inside_close_ratio
0.8485
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.3989
Signaux confirmants (32)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:07 | 0.07815000 | 0% |
| 2 | 11:13 | 0.07815000 | 0% |
| 3 | 11:37 | 0.07843000 | +0.358% |
| 4 | 11:43 | 0.07843000 | +0.358% |
| 5 | 12:19 | 0.07816000 | +0.013% |
| 6 | 12:24 | 0.07816000 | +0.013% |
| 7 | 12:31 | 0.07816000 | +0.013% |
| 8 | 12:37 | 0.07826000 | +0.141% |
| 9 | 12:42 | 0.07826000 | +0.141% |
| 10 | 12:49 | 0.07826000 | +0.141% |
| 11 | 12:55 | 0.07826000 | +0.141% |
| 12 | 13:01 | 0.07826000 | +0.141% |
| 13 | 13:07 | 0.07813000 | -0.026% |
| 14 | 13:13 | 0.07813000 | -0.026% |
| 15 | 13:37 | 0.07824000 | +0.115% |
| 16 | 13:43 | 0.07824000 | +0.115% |
| 17 | 13:49 | 0.07834000 | +0.243% |
| 18 | 13:54 | 0.07834000 | +0.243% |
| 19 | 14:01 | 0.07834000 | +0.243% |
| 20 | 15:48 | 0.07811000 | -0.051% |
| 21 | 15:54 | 0.07811000 | -0.051% |
| 22 | 16:01 | 0.07811000 | -0.051% |
| 23 | 16:07 | 0.07830000 | +0.192% |
| 24 | 16:13 | 0.07830000 | +0.192% |
| 25 | 16:19 | 0.07871000 | +0.717% |
| 26 | 16:24 | 0.07871000 | +0.717% |
| 27 | 16:31 | 0.07871000 | +0.717% |
| 28 | 16:37 | 0.07863000 | +0.614% |
| 29 | 16:42 | 0.07863000 | +0.614% |
| 30 | 16:48 | 0.07849000 | +0.435% |
| 31 | 16:55 | 0.07849000 | +0.435% |
| 32 | 17:01 | 0.07849000 | +0.435% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↑ bid
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7128ms
Confidence avant OB :
81%
→
71%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.330
avg 0.333
± 0.004
OBI Top 10
0.053
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0781
Micro Price
0.0781
Spread
0.1282%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.0776
Size
1,421,598.40
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.0787
Size
1,424,661.08
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07815 | 0.08001 | 0.0735 | 2.5 | 0.09994 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07815
- Stop Loss: 0.08001
- Take Profit: 0.0735
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.08001 - 0.07815 = 0.00186
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07815 - 0.0735 = 0.00465
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00465 / 0.00186 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 336.1833 | 100 | 4301.7691 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00186
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00186 = 4301.08
Taille de position USD = 4301.08 x 0.07815 = 336.13
Donc, tu peux acheter 4301.08 avec un stoploss a 0.08001
Avec un position size USD de 336.13$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 4301.08 x 0.00186 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 4301.08 x 0.00465 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 4301.08
- Taille de position USD 336.13
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 5.95 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.38 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -2.38 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.4952 % | 104.84 % | 10 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07815 | 0.08001 | 0.0735 | 2.5 | 0.09994 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07815
- Stop Loss: 0.08001
- Take Profit: 0.0735
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.08001 - 0.07815 = 0.00186
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07815 - 0.0735 = 0.00465
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00465 / 0.00186 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.380%
(0.0019)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.947% | 0.4R | -0.512% | 0.2R | 1.9× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.947% | 0.4R | -0.512% | 0.2R | 1.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.049% | 0.4R | -0.512% | 0.2R | 2.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.049% | 0.4R | -1.523% | 0.6R | 0.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.049% | 0.4R | -3.404% | 1.4R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.049% | 0.4R | -3.404% | 1.4R | 0.3× | 288 |
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
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