Short Trade on TRUMP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 377.95 TRUMP at 1.478$ per unit. Take profit: 1.4246 (3.58 %) & Stop Loss: 1.4987 (1.43 %)
11 Aug 2026 at 20:15:44
hyperliquid
TRUMP
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
11 Aug 2026 20:15
→ 23:15
· 2 hours
Position
Entry 1.4775$
Qty 377.9491 TRUMP
Size 558.4198$ (margin 100$) (leverage 6)
Risk Setup
TP 1.4246 (+3.58%)
TP $ 19.99$
SL 1.4987 (-1.43%)
SL $ 8.01$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.43%
/ -8.01$
MAE -1.46%
MFE +0.83%
0.6R
expires
12 Aug 08:15
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 66303)
#20 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 11/08/2026 20:00
score du 11/08/2026 20:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5473
Quality Score
0.522
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
75 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
2
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
11/08 20:02
11/08 20:02
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#20 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
75 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+3
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.43 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#20 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
75 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.43 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.15×ATR |
| 4h | near | 0.27×ATR |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bear_low_vol rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 2 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium_confirmed (+1) Tactical (1H) : bear_low (+1) 11/08 20:00 Score : +2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 10/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 11/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : range_high (0) 11/08 19:00 Score : +3 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.5218
Score SMA
0.5432
Rank
#20
/ 46
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5473
Rank Norm SMA
0.6312
Calculé le
11/08/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4698 | r1h: -0.397% · r4h: -0.142% · r1d: -0.07% · r3d: -0.55% · ema21_slope: -0.0577% · dist_ema21: -0.577% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4968 | rs_1h: -0.358% · rs_4h: -0.307% · rs_1d: 0.46% · rs_3d: 1.48% · beta_24h: 1.139 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3415 | rvol_20: 0.99× · zscore_50: 0.188 · trend: -12.06% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5888 | ADX: 17.0 (weak) · Chop: 44.7 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.835% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.435%
(0.0212)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.250% | 0.2R | -0.677% | 0.5R | 0.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.250% | 0.2R | -0.893% | 0.6R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.250% | 0.2R | -1.462% | 1.0R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.399% | 0.3R | -1.462% | 1.0R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.833% | 0.6R | -1.462% | 1.0R | 0.6× | 143 |
| 24h | +7.012% | 4.9R | -1.462% | 1.0R | 4.8× | 288 |
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.56
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | — | — | 0.50 | bear_high | -4.82% | -0.48 | 10/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | range_high |
36%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early | near 0.3ATR | — | 0.54 | bear_medium | -1.13% | +0.16 | 11/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | grind | expansion | range_high |
40%
|
noisy_chop 43% | mid | near 0.2ATR | — | 0.39 | bear_low | -1.18% | -0.16 | 11/08 19:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | compression | range_low |
42%
|
noisy_chop 44% | early | — | — | — | range_low | -0.45% | +0.04 | 11/08 19:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 38b | — | 6.862×ATR | p77 | -0.692×ATR | p29 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 4b | — | 2.3×ATR | p10 | -0.2×ATR | p19 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 5b | — | 1.553×ATR | p4 | -0.782×ATR | p66 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 13b | — | 1.807×ATR | p16 | -0.216×ATR | p12 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7467
- reason: down_bo width=3.00×ATR dur=51b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 1.49866687
- tp_price: 1.42458283
- atr:
- score: 0.7466772975355
- expires_at: 2026-08-12T12:15:36.833415
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.7466772975355
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0521
- obi_top10 : 0.0904
- micro_price : 1.47716224
- spread_pct : 0.067705
- mid_price : 1.4775
- bid_wall_price : 1.46
- bid_wall_size : 225864.96
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 1.48
- ask_wall_size : 230131.58
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0771
- obi_top5_std : 0.0223
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7139
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
1.515
- balance_zone_bottom:
1.48
- balance_zone_mid:
1.4975
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786312800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786492800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.9995
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
51
- balance_zone_quality: loose
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7467
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786489200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
1.48
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8235
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.2142
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
3
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
13
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.0116687 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
51
inside_close_ratio
0.8235
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.2142
Signaux confirmants (9)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20:15 | 1.47750000 | 0% |
| 2 | 20:21 | 1.47690000 | -0.041% |
| 3 | 20:27 | 1.47690000 | -0.041% |
| 4 | 20:33 | 1.47690000 | -0.041% |
| 5 | 20:39 | 1.47610000 | -0.095% |
| 6 | 20:45 | 1.47610000 | -0.095% |
| 7 | 20:51 | 1.47620000 | -0.088% |
| 8 | 20:57 | 1.47620000 | -0.088% |
| 9 | 21:04 | 1.47620000 | -0.088% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7139ms
Confidence avant OB :
75%
→
75%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.052
avg 0.077
± 0.022
OBI Top 10
0.090
Microstructure
Mid Price
1.4775
Micro Price
1.4772
Spread
0.0677%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
1.4600
Size
225,864.96
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
1.4800
Size
230,131.58
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4775 | 1.4987 | 1.4246 | 2.5 | 2.2468 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1.4775
- Stop Loss: 1.4987
- Take Profit: 1.4246
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.4987 - 1.4775 = 0.0212
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.4775 - 1.4246 = 0.0529
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0529 / 0.0212 = 2.4953
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 558.4198 | 100 | 377.9491 | 6.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0212
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0212 = 377.36
Taille de position USD = 377.36 x 1.4775 = 557.55
Donc, tu peux acheter 377.36 avec un stoploss a 1.4987
Avec un position size USD de 557.55$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 377.36 x 0.0212 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 377.36 x 0.0529 = 19.96
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.96$
Résumé
- Taille de position 377.36
- Taille de position USD 557.55
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.96
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4953
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.58 % | 19.99 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.43 % | 8.01 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.01 $ | -1.43 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.4416 % | 100.47 % | 5 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4775 | 1.4987 | 1.4246 | 2.5 | 2.2468 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1.4775
- Stop Loss: 1.4987
- Take Profit: 1.4246
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.4987 - 1.4775 = 0.0212
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.4775 - 1.4246 = 0.0529
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0529 / 0.0212 = 2.4953
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.435%
(0.0212)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.250% | 0.2R | -0.677% | 0.5R | 0.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.250% | 0.2R | -0.893% | 0.6R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.250% | 0.2R | -1.462% | 1.0R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.399% | 0.3R | -1.462% | 1.0R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.833% | 0.6R | -1.462% | 1.0R | 0.6× | 143 |
| 24h | +7.012% | 4.9R | -1.462% | 1.0R | 4.8× | 288 |
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
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