Long Trade on ARB (CatchTheWave)
With 35421.74 ARB at 0.0795$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07998 (0.57 %) & Stop Loss: 0.0793 (0.29 %)
Long Trade on ARB (CatchTheWave)
With 35421.74 ARB at 0.0795$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07998 (0.57 %) & Stop Loss: 0.0793 (0.29 %)
Position
Entry 0.07953$
Qty 35421.7401 ARB
Size 2817.091$ (margin 100$) (leverage 28)
Risk Setup
TP 0.07998 (+0.57%)
TP $ 15.94$
SL 0.0793 (-0.29%)
SL $ 8.15$
RR 1.96
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5853
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -1.13×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.76×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 18.36×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium_confirmed (-1) Tactical (1H) : bear_low (-1) 12/08 00:00 Score : -2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.332043 15m : 0.590167 |
1H_regime : range_high 15m_regime : range_low 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 11/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 12/08 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 12/08 00:00 Score : -2 / ±6 |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5117 | r1h: 0.312% · r4h: 0.037% · r1d: -0.19% · r3d: 2.93% · ema21_slope: -0.0102% · dist_ema21: 1.005% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5433 | rs_1h: 0.204% · rs_4h: -0.315% · rs_1d: 0.35% · rs_3d: 4.44% · beta_24h: 2.119 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1808 | rvol_20: 0.39× · zscore_50: -0.779 · trend: -25.48% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6371 | ADX: 20.7 (weak) · Chop: 42.6 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.876% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.264% | 0.9R | -0.075% | 0.3R | 3.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.264% | 0.9R | -1.295% | 4.5R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.264% | 0.9R | -1.710% | 5.9R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.264% | 0.9R | -1.924% | 6.7R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.264% | 0.9R | -1.987% | 6.9R | 0.1× | 144 |
computed 2 weeks ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late | near 0.2ATR | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -4.75% | -0.44 | 11/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | range_high |
44%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early | — | near -0.8ATR | 0.60 | range_medium | -0.70% | +0.39 | 12/08 00:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | compression | bull_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 39% | mid | — | near -1.1ATR | 0.38 | bear_low | -0.86% | +0.05 | 12/08 00:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bull_low |
47%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | near -0.9ATR | — | — | range_low | -0.18% | +0.02 | 12/08 00:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 31b | — | 6.136×ATR | p83 | -0.263×ATR | p13 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 3b | — | 2.045×ATR | p0 | +0.405×ATR | p28 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 9b | — | 3.952×ATR | p73 | +0.66×ATR | p36 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 13b | — | 2.256×ATR | p34 | +0.514×ATR | p31 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
63706.2
4.34589E-5
63709
0.332043
63810.6
-0.00159368
63709
0.590167
64377.2
-0.0103808
63709
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0.08081
196
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0.6894
0.3395
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0.6361
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0.2917
0.603
0.5667
0.1071
0.0429
1
0.0551
0.1669
0.6
0.4
1
3
1
0.4934
0.6918
4.6387
0.55
1.1083
4.4466
0.1669
0
0.2543
0.12
0.0295
0.5553
0.518
0
0.5667
-2.9439
3.8497
1
0
0
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (8)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:36 | 0.07953000 | 0% |
| 2 | 00:42 | 0.07952000 | -0.013% |
| 3 | 00:48 | 0.07957000 | +0.05% |
| 4 | 00:54 | 0.07958000 | +0.063% |
| 5 | 01:01 | 0.07952000 | -0.013% |
| 6 | 01:07 | 0.07959000 | +0.075% |
| 7 | 01:24 | 0.07955000 | +0.025% |
| 8 | 02:01 | 0.07946000 | -0.088% |
Market Structure Score: 0
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 22:00:00 | 0.07892 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-11 22:10:00 | 0.07864 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 23:50:00 | 0.08041 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-12 00:20:00 | 0.07986 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-12 01:05:00 | 0.08081 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-12 01:45:00 | 0.08073 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-12 02:40:00 | 0.08003 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-12 03:40:00 | 0.08041 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-12 04:20:00 | 0.08022 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-12 04:35:00 | 0.07951 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 10:15:00 | 0.07932 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 10:45:00 | 0.07932 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 12:15:00 | 0.08047 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-11 15:30:00 | 0.07741 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 19:00:00 | 0.07733 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 20:00:00 | 0.07884 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-11 20:30:00 | 0.07884 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-12 01:00:00 | 0.08081 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-12 02:30:00 | 0.08003 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-12 04:30:00 | 0.07955 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 00:00:00 | 0.07748 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-10 07:00:00 | 0.08049 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-10 11:00:00 | 0.07904 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-10 13:00:00 | 0.08093 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-10 22:00:00 | 0.07917 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 01:00:00 | 0.0815 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-11 07:00:00 | 0.07922 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 12:00:00 | 0.08047 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-11 19:00:00 | 0.07733 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-12 01:00:00 | 0.08081 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07953 | 0.0793 | 0.07998 | 1.96 | 0.09233 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.0793 - 0.07953 = -0.00023000000000001
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07953 - 0.07998 = -0.00044999999999999
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00044999999999999 / -0.00023000000000001 = 1.9565
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2817.091 | 100 | 35421.7401 | 28.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / -0.00023000000000001 = -34782.61
Taille de position USD = -34782.61 x 0.07953 = -2766.26
Donc, tu peux acheter -34782.61 avec un stoploss a 0.0793
Avec un position size USD de -2766.26$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -34782.61 x -0.00023000000000001 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -34782.61 x -0.00044999999999999 = 15.65
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 15.65$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.57 % | 15.94 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.29 % | 8.15 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.15 $ | -0.29 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.6664 % | 230.43 % | 9 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07953 | 0.0793 | 0.07998 | 1.96 | 0.09233 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.0793 - 0.07953 = -0.00023000000000001
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07953 - 0.07998 = -0.00044999999999999
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00044999999999999 / -0.00023000000000001 = 1.9565
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.264% | 0.9R | -0.075% | 0.3R | 3.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.264% | 0.9R | -1.295% | 4.5R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.264% | 0.9R | -1.710% | 5.9R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.264% | 0.9R | -1.924% | 6.7R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.264% | 0.9R | -1.987% | 6.9R | 0.1× | 144 |
computed 2 weeks ago
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