Short Trade on XPL

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12 Aug 2026 at 18:10:04 hyperliquid

Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 3728.67 XPL at 0.0735$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07163 (2.49 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07561 (2.93 %)

XPL SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 12 Aug 2026 18:10 → 00:05 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 0.07346$

Qty 3728.665 XPL

Size 273.9189$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)

Risk Setup

TP 0.07163 (+2.49%)

TP $ 6.82$

SL 0.07561 (-2.93%)

SL $ 8.02$

RR 0.85

Status loss PnL -1.79% / -4.91$ MAE -2.39% MFE +0.54% 0.2R expires 13 Aug 00:10 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 67358)

#13 / 52 OUT

seuil : top 15
score du 12/08/2026 18:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.2700

Quality Score

0.546

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

92 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

1 OK

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

4.5M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
12/08 18:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#13 / 52 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

92 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

+7 OK

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

2.93 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#13 / 52 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

92 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

+7 OK

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

2.93 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

3/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	near	0.08×ATR
4h	near	-1.53×ATR
1d	near	0.45×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
4h	↓ down	early	OK
1d	↓ down	late	BLOCKED

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1	ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium_confirmed (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 12/08 18:00 Score : +1

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : bear_low

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 1

ml_regime : bear_high

Strategic (1D) : range_high (0)

Operational (4H) : bear_medium_confirmed (+1)

Tactical (1H) : range_low (0)

12/08 18:00

Score : +1

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 11/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 12/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 12/08 17:00 Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3)

11/08 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

12/08 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

12/08 17:00

Score : +6 / ±6

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Score brut

0.5463

Score SMA

0.4986

Rank

#13 / 52

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2700

Rank Norm SMA

0.3230

Calculé le

12/08/2026 18:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2958	r1h: -1.952% · r4h: -2.312% · r1d: -5.84% · r3d: -5.35% · ema21_slope: -0.1454% · dist_ema21: -2.417%
Force Relative	25%	0.2789	rs_1h: -1.845% · rs_4h: -2.410% · rs_1d: -5.65% · rs_3d: -2.81% · beta_24h: 0.937
Volume	20%	0.9360	rvol_20: 3.69× · zscore_50: 2.731 · trend: 65.44%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6708	ADX: 32.8 (trend) · Chop: 50.8 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.158% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -2.927% (0.0022)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.543%	0.2R	-1.240%	0.4R	0.4×	12
2h	+0.543%	0.2R	-2.203%	0.8R	0.3×	24
4h	+0.543%	0.2R	-2.393%	0.8R	0.2×	48
6h ★	+0.543%	0.2R	-2.393%	0.8R	0.2×	72
8h	+0.543%	0.2R	-3.240%	1.1R	0.2×	96
12h	+0.543%	0.2R	-3.335%	1.1R	0.2×	144

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.34

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bear_high	54%	noisy_chop 37%	late	near 0.5ATR	—	0.51	bear_high	-4.85%	-0.39	11/08 20:00
4h	↓ down	range	range	strong	explosive	normal	bear_high	60%	noisy_chop 40%	early	near -1.5ATR	—	0.40	bear_medium	-1.03%	-0.10	12/08 16:00
1h	↓ down	range	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	expansion	bear_high_confirmed	55%	noisy_chop 44%	late	near 0.1ATR	—	0.37	bear_low	-0.95%	-0.43	12/08 17:00
15m	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	strong	fading	expansion_after_compression	bear_medium_confirmed	57%	noisy_chop 50%	late	—	—	0.44	range_low	-0.24%	-0.18	12/08 17:45
5m	—

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	late	39b	—	7.598×ATR	p91	-0.703×ATR	p35
4h	↓ down	early	6b	—	2.233×ATR	p15	-0.881×ATR	p60
1h	↓ down	late	3b	—	2.398×ATR	p47	-2.241×ATR	p96
15m	↓ down	late	5b	—	4.544×ATR	p77	-2.563×ATR	p90

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 0.07560854
tp_price: 0.07162642
atr: 0.00085822
expires_at: 2026-08-13T04:10:04+00:00

Details

rank: 48
total: 52
score: 0.2958
delta_2h: -0.1009
extension_atr: -2.47
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.27
confidence: 0.922

Signal Details

Signaux confirmants (2)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	18:10	0.07346300	+0.004%
2	19:10	0.07399200	+0.724%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.07346	0.07561	0.07163	0.85	0.09601

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.07346
Stop Loss: 0.07561
Take Profit: 0.07163

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.07561 - 0.07346 = 0.00215
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.07346 - 0.07163 = 0.00183
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00183 / 0.00215 = 0.8512

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
273.9189	100	3728.665	3.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.00215

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00215 = 3720.93

Taille de position USD = 3720.93 x 0.07346 = 273.34

Donc, tu peux acheter 3720.93 avec un stoploss a 0.07561

Avec un position size USD de 273.34$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 3720.93 x 0.00215 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 3720.93 x 0.00183 = 6.81

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 6.81$

Résumé

Taille de position 3720.93
Taille de position USD 273.34
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 6.81
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.8512

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.49 %	6.82 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
2.93 %	8.02 $

PNL	PNL %
-4.91 $	-1.79

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-2.3931 %	81.77 %	2

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.07346	0.07561	0.07163	0.85	0.09601

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.07346
Stop Loss: 0.07561
Take Profit: 0.07163

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.07561 - 0.07346 = 0.00215
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.07346 - 0.07163 = 0.00183
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00183 / 0.00215 = 0.8512

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -2.927% (0.0022)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.543%	0.2R	-1.240%	0.4R	0.4×	12
2h	+0.543%	0.2R	-2.203%	0.8R	0.3×	24
4h	+0.543%	0.2R	-2.393%	0.8R	0.2×	48
6h ★	+0.543%	0.2R	-2.393%	0.8R	0.2×	72
8h	+0.543%	0.2R	-3.240%	1.1R	0.2×	96
12h	+0.543%	0.2R	-3.335%	1.1R	0.2×	144

computed 3 weeks ago

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