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Short Trade on ARB

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12 Aug 2026 at 20:10:05 hyperliquid

Short Trade on ARB (momentum_rotation_score)

With 3303.55 ARB at 0.0744$ per unit. Take profit: (100 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07682 (3.25 %)

ARB SHORT momentum_rotation_score hyperliquid 12 Aug 2026 20:10 → 23:10 · 2 hours

Position

Entry 0.0744$

Qty 3303.5464 ARB

Size 245.7838$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0 (+100%)

TP $ 245.78$

SL 0.07682 (-3.25%)

SL $ 7.99$

RR

Status loss PnL -0.97% / -2.38$ MAE -1.22% MFE +1.03% 0.3R expires 12 Aug 23:10 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 67423)
#48 / 51 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 12/08/2026 20:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.4670

Quality Score
0.442
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
96 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
2 OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
3.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
12/08 20:00

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#48 / 51 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
96 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.25 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#48 / 51 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
96 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.25 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear —
4h clear 0.98×ATR
1d near -0.29×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
3/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down late BLOCKED
4h ↓ down late BLOCKED
1d ↓ down late BLOCKED
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : bear_low_vol

rules_regime : bear_low

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 2

ml_regime : bear_high

Strategic (1D) : range_high (0)

Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1)

Tactical (1H) : range_low (0)

12/08 20:01

Score : +1

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3)

11/08 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2)

12/08 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

12/08 19:00

Score : +6 / ±6

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1H
Score brut
0.4422
Score SMA
0.5273
Rank
#48 / 51
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4670
Rank Norm SMA
0.5371
Calculé le
12/08/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.2370 r1h: -0.511% · r4h: -4.125% · r1d: -7.93% · r3d: -4.97% · ema21_slope: -0.1784% · dist_ema21: -4.538%
Force Relative 25% 0.2748 rs_1h: -0.500% · rs_4h: -4.107% · rs_1d: -7.69% · rs_3d: -2.72% · beta_24h: 1.160
Volume 20% 0.4466 rvol_20: 0.90× · zscore_50: 0.305 · trend: 72.10%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7541 ADX: 30.5 (trend) · Chop: 19.7 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.139% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -3.253% (0.0024)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.035% 0.3R -0.296% 0.1R 3.5× 12
2h +1.035% 0.3R -0.296% 0.1R 3.5× 24
3h ★ +1.035% 0.3R -1.223% 0.4R 0.9× 36
4h +1.035% 0.3R -2.379% 0.7R 0.4× 48
8h +1.035% 0.3R -3.051% 0.9R 0.3× 96
12h +1.035% 0.3R -3.051% 0.9R 0.3× 144

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 3.06
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↓ down range range moderate grind compression bear_high
54%
noisy_chop 39% late near -0.3ATR — 0.71 bear_high -4.85% -0.60 11/08 20:00
4h ↔ neutral range range strong balanced expansion_after_compression bear_high_confirmed
56%
noisy_chop 38% late — — 0.59 bear_medium_confirmed -1.28% -0.34 12/08 16:00
1h ↓ down range range strong fading volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
43%
choppy 57% late — — 0.39 bear_low -1.08% -0.63 12/08 19:00
15m ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate fading expansion_after_compression bear_medium_exhausted
40%
choppy 45% late — — — range_low -0.38% -0.50 12/08 19:30
5m —

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down late 31b — 6.32×ATR p83 -0.791×ATR p36
4h ↓ down late 5b — 4.348×ATR p79 -2.78×ATR p98
1h ↓ down late 11b — 6.452×ATR p98 -4.191×ATR p100
15m ↓ down late 10b — 4.922×ATR p73 -2.724×ATR p83

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_score - SELL

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 0.07682164
  2. atr: 0.00080721
  3. expires_at: 2026-08-13T03:10:05+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 50
  2. total: 52
  3. score: 0.237
  4. confidence: 0.961

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.0744 0.07682 0.1317
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.0744
  • Stop Loss: 0.07682
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.07682 - 0.0744 = 0.00242

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.0744 - = 0.0744

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0744 / 0.00242 = 30.7438

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
245.7838 100 3303.5464 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.00242

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00242 = 3305.79

Taille de position USD = 3305.79 x 0.0744 = 245.95

Donc, tu peux acheter 3305.79 avec un stoploss a 0.07682

Avec un position size USD de 245.95$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 3305.79 x 0.00242 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 3305.79 x 0.0744 = 245.95

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 245.95$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 3305.79
  • Taille de position USD 245.95
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 245.95
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 30.7438

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
100 % 245.78 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
3.25 % 7.99 $
PNL PNL %
-2.38 $ -0.97
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-1.2231 % 37.6 % 14
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.0744 0.07682 0.1317
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.0744
  • Stop Loss: 0.07682
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.07682 - 0.0744 = 0.00242

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.0744 - = 0.0744

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0744 / 0.00242 = 30.7438

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
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Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -3.253% (0.0024)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.035% 0.3R -0.296% 0.1R 3.5× 12
2h +1.035% 0.3R -0.296% 0.1R 3.5× 24
3h ★ +1.035% 0.3R -1.223% 0.4R 0.9× 36
4h +1.035% 0.3R -2.379% 0.7R 0.4× 48
8h +1.035% 0.3R -3.051% 0.9R 0.3× 96
12h +1.035% 0.3R -3.051% 0.9R 0.3× 144

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

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