Short Trade on ARB (momentum_rotation_score)
With 3825.88 ARB at 0.0746$ per unit. Take profit: (100 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07666 (2.8 %)
13 Aug 2026 at 08:10:05
hyperliquid
ARB
SHORT
momentum_rotation_score
hyperliquid
13 Aug 2026 08:10
→ 11:05
· 2 hours
Position
Entry 0.07457$
Qty 3825.884 ARB
Size 285.2962$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 0 (+100%)
TP $ 285.3$
SL 0.07666 (-2.8%)
SL $ 8$
RR
Status
loss
PnL
-1.26%
/ -3.6$
MAE -1.60%
MFE +0.00%
0.0R
expires
13 Aug 11:10
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 68010)
#42 / 48
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 13/08/2026 08:00
score du 13/08/2026 08:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3201
Quality Score
0.436
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
94 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
1
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
3.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
13/08 08:00
13/08 08:00
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#42 / 48
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
94 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#42 / 48
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
94 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.69×ATR |
| 4h | near | -1.33×ATR |
| 1d | near | -0.85×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 13/08 08:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 12/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2) 13/08 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 13/08 07:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | transition | — | +1 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.80
Transition risk :
0.20
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.63
Snapshot évalué : 13/08 08:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.4357
Score SMA
0.5031
Rank
#42
/ 48
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3201
Rank Norm SMA
0.3922
Calculé le
13/08/2026 08:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3296 | r1h: -0.268% · r4h: -1.140% · r1d: -5.46% · r3d: -6.77% · ema21_slope: -0.1698% · dist_ema21: -1.725% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4020 | rs_1h: 0.028% · rs_4h: -0.523% · rs_1d: -4.27% · rs_3d: -4.20% · beta_24h: 0.850 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1772 | rvol_20: 0.25× · zscore_50: -0.837 · trend: -25.27% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6728 | ADX: 32.3 (trend) · Chop: 50.1 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.013% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★
3h)
Initial Risk: -2.803%
(0.0021)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.496% | 0.2R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.435% | 0.5R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 3h ★ | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.596% | 0.6R | 0.0× | 36 |
| 4h | +0.335% | 0.1R | -1.596% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.563% | 0.2R | -1.596% | 0.6R | 0.4× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.563% | 0.2R | -1.743% | 0.6R | 0.3× | 144 |
computed 3 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.14
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | near -0.8ATR | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -4.24% | -0.68 | 12/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | explosive | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
57%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | near -1.3ATR | — | 0.57 | bear_medium | -0.87% | -0.26 | 13/08 04:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 51% | late | near -0.7ATR | — | 0.44 | bear_low | -0.89% | -0.49 | 13/08 07:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | balanced | compression | bear_medium |
60%
|
choppy 47% | mid | — | — | — | range_low | -0.34% | -0.17 | 13/08 07:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 32b | — | 6.53×ATR | p83 | -1.156×ATR | p53 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 8b | — | 3.728×ATR | p75 | -1.696×ATR | p86 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 4b | — | 2.793×ATR | p40 | -1.743×ATR | p84 |
| 15m | ↑ up | mid | 5b | — | 0.526×ATR | p4 | -1.787×ATR | p60 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07457 | 0.07666 | 0.1471 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07457
- Stop Loss: 0.07666
- Take Profit:
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07666 - 0.07457 = 0.00209
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07457 - = 0.07457
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.07457 / 0.00209 = 35.6794
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 285.2962 | 100 | 3825.884 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00209
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00209 = 3827.75
Taille de position USD = 3827.75 x 0.07457 = 285.44
Donc, tu peux acheter 3827.75 avec un stoploss a 0.07666
Avec un position size USD de 285.44$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 3827.75 x 0.00209 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 3827.75 x 0.07457 = 285.44
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 285.44$
Résumé
- Taille de position 3827.75
- Taille de position USD 285.44
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 285.44
- Risk-Reward Ratio 35.6794
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 100 % | 285.3 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.8 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -3.6 $ | -1.26 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5958 % | 56.94 % | 1 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07457 | 0.07666 | 0.1471 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07457
- Stop Loss: 0.07666
- Take Profit:
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07666 - 0.07457 = 0.00209
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07457 - = 0.07457
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.07457 / 0.00209 = 35.6794
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★
3h)
Initial Risk: -2.803%
(0.0021)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.496% | 0.2R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.435% | 0.5R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 3h ★ | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.596% | 0.6R | 0.0× | 36 |
| 4h | +0.335% | 0.1R | -1.596% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.563% | 0.2R | -1.596% | 0.6R | 0.4× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.563% | 0.2R | -1.743% | 0.6R | 0.3× | 144 |
computed 3 weeks ago
Commentaires
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