Short Trade on LIT (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 71.99 LIT at 2.266$ per unit. Take profit: 1.9879 (12.26 %) & Stop Loss: 2.3768 (4.9 %)
13 Aug 2026 at 18:40:49
hyperliquid
LIT
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
13 Aug 2026 18:40
→ 06:40
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 2.2657$
Qty 71.9923 LIT
Size 163.1131$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 1.9879 (+12.26%)
TP $ 20$
SL 2.3768 (-4.9%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+1.53%
/ +2.49$
MAE -0.74%
MFE +2.72%
0.6R
expires
14 Aug 06:40
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 68533)
#43 / 44
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 13/08/2026 18:00
score du 13/08/2026 18:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3870
Quality Score
0.442
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
14.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
13/08 18:32
13/08 18:32
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#43 / 44
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.90 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#43 / 44
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.90 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.28×ATR |
| 4h | near | -1.22×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.80×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium_confirmed (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 13/08 18:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 12/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 13/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 13/08 18:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.4418
Score SMA
0.5058
Rank
#43
/ 44
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3870
Rank Norm SMA
0.4916
Calculé le
13/08/2026 18:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4004 | r1h: -0.608% · r4h: -2.117% · r1d: -2.74% · r3d: -2.80% · ema21_slope: -0.0796% · dist_ema21: -2.329% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3661 | rs_1h: -0.685% · rs_4h: -2.623% · rs_1d: -2.72% · rs_3d: -2.00% · beta_24h: 1.066 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2946 | rvol_20: 0.87× · zscore_50: -0.333 · trend: -6.69% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4749 | ADX: 14.3 (weak) · Chop: 56.0 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.819% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -4.904%
(0.1111)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.057% | 0.0R | -0.693% | 0.1R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.521% | 0.1R | -0.742% | 0.2R | 0.7× | 24 |
| 4h | +2.419% | 0.5R | -0.742% | 0.2R | 3.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.613% | 0.5R | -0.742% | 0.2R | 3.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.723% | 0.6R | -0.742% | 0.2R | 3.7× | 143 |
| 24h | +2.900% | 0.6R | -0.742% | 0.2R | 3.9× | 288 |
computed 4 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 2.19
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bull_high |
68%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early | — | — | — | bear_high | -5.12% | +0.91 | 12/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
47%
|
noisy_chop 34% | mid | near -1.2ATR | — | 0.30 | bear_medium | -0.87% | -0.17 | 13/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | near 0.3ATR | — | 0.31 | range_low | -0.45% | -0.45 | 13/08 18:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high_confirmed |
58%
|
noisy_chop 50% | late | — | — | — | range_low | +0.12% | -0.36 | 13/08 18:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early | 10b | — | 2.037×ATR | p0 | +0.472×ATR | p28 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 7b | — | 2.289×ATR | p18 | -1.136×ATR | p68 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 7b | — | 4.01×ATR | p85 | -1.962×ATR | p94 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 7b | — | 3.892×ATR | p73 | -2.014×ATR | p86 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7836
- reason: down_bo width=2.19×ATR dur=29b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
- stop_price: 2.37682292
- tp_price: 1.98789269
- atr:
- score: 0.88361858484106
- expires_at: 2026-08-14T10:40:41.401812
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.88361858484106
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1592
- obi_top10 : 0.2116
- micro_price : 2.2625
- spread_pct : 0.044209
- mid_price : 2.2625
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 2.29
- ask_wall_size : 15246.4
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.1612
- obi_top5_std : 0.007
- pressure_side : bid
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7026
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
2.4196
- balance_zone_bottom:
2.32545
- balance_zone_mid:
2.372525
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786557600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786658400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.1906
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
29
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: forming
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8836
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786647600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
2.32545
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8276
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
3
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.3902
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
3
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
5
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.04297924 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
29
inside_close_ratio
0.8276
bars_since_breakout
3
distance_to_edge_atr
1.3902
Signaux confirmants (6)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:40 | 2.26570000 | 0% |
| 2 | 18:47 | 2.26570000 | 0% |
| 3 | 18:52 | 2.26820000 | +0.11% |
| 4 | 18:58 | 2.26820000 | +0.11% |
| 5 | 19:06 | 2.26820000 | +0.11% |
| 6 | 19:11 | 2.26810000 | +0.106% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↑ bid
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7026ms
Confidence avant OB :
88%
→
78%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.159
avg 0.161
± 0.007
OBI Top 10
0.212
Microstructure
Mid Price
2.2625
Micro Price
2.2625
Spread
0.0442%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
2.2900
Size
15,246.40
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.2657 | 2.3768 | 1.9879 | 2.5 | 4.2491 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 2.2657
- Stop Loss: 2.3768
- Take Profit: 1.9879
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 2.3768 - 2.2657 = 0.1111
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 2.2657 - 1.9879 = 0.2778
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2778 / 0.1111 = 2.5005
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 163.1131 | 100 | 71.9923 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.1111
Taille de position = 8 / 0.1111 = 72.01
Taille de position USD = 72.01 x 2.2657 = 163.15
Donc, tu peux acheter 72.01 avec un stoploss a 2.3768
Avec un position size USD de 163.15$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 72.01 x 0.1111 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 72.01 x 0.2778 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 72.01
- Taille de position USD 163.15
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5005
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 12.26 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.9 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 2.49 $ | 1.53 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.7415 % | 15.12 % | 13 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.2657 | 2.3768 | 1.9879 | 2.5 | 4.2491 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 2.2657
- Stop Loss: 2.3768
- Take Profit: 1.9879
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 2.3768 - 2.2657 = 0.1111
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 2.2657 - 1.9879 = 0.2778
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2778 / 0.1111 = 2.5005
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -4.904%
(0.1111)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.057% | 0.0R | -0.693% | 0.1R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.521% | 0.1R | -0.742% | 0.2R | 0.7× | 24 |
| 4h | +2.419% | 0.5R | -0.742% | 0.2R | 3.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.613% | 0.5R | -0.742% | 0.2R | 3.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.723% | 0.6R | -0.742% | 0.2R | 3.7× | 143 |
| 24h | +2.900% | 0.6R | -0.742% | 0.2R | 3.9× | 288 |
computed 4 weeks ago
Commentaires
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