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Short Trade on KAITO

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13 Aug 2026 at 20:10:08 hyperliquid

Short Trade on KAITO (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 261.93 KAITO at 0.431$ per unit. Take profit: 0.4204 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.4617 (7.07 %)

KAITO SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 13 Aug 2026 20:10 → 22:00 · 1 hour

Position

Entry 0.4312$

Qty 261.9267 KAITO

Size 112.9349$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0.4204 (+2.5%)

TP $ 2.83$

SL 0.4617 (-7.07%)

SL $ 7.99$

RR 0.35

Status win PnL +2.50% / +2.83$ MAE -0.07% MFE +5.18% 0.7R expires 14 Aug 02:10

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 68616)
#45 / 45 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 13/08/2026 20:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.0365

Quality Score
0.382
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
100 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
1 OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
7.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
13/08 20:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#45 / 45 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
7.07 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#45 / 45 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
7.07 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear —
4h clear —
1d near 0.00×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up early OK
4h ↓ down late BLOCKED
1d ↓ down late BLOCKED
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : bear_low

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 1

ml_regime : bear_high

Strategic (1D) : range_high (0)

Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1)

Tactical (1H) : range_low (0)

13/08 20:00

Score : +1

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high_confirmed (+3)

12/08 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

13/08 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

13/08 19:00

Score : +6 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot)
range compression range_breakdown_risk
Strategic range compression — 0
Operational bear transition — +1
Tactical range range — 0
Micro — —
MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 0.80
Transition risk : 0.20
Score contribution (this trade) +1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score —
Impulse : —
% Positive (universe)
15m —
1h —
4h —
24h —
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m — —
4h — —
24h — —
Dispersion : —
Universe : —
Regime confidence : 0.63
Snapshot évalué : 13/08 20:00 · env range_with_pressure

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1H
Score brut
0.3815
Score SMA
0.3795
Rank
#45 / 45
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0365
Rank Norm SMA
0.0427
Calculé le
13/08/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.2371 r1h: -1.387% · r4h: 1.186% · r1d: -5.32% · r3d: -33.83% · ema21_slope: -0.3311% · dist_ema21: -3.759%
Force Relative 25% 0.2784 rs_1h: -1.274% · rs_4h: 1.092% · rs_1d: -5.30% · rs_3d: -33.05% · beta_24h: 0.608
Volume 20% 0.1444 rvol_20: 0.30× · zscore_50: -0.833 · trend: -63.17%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7456 ADX: 35.1 (trend) · Chop: 44.0 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.880% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -7.073% (0.0305)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +2.447% 0.4R -0.000% 0.0R — 12
2h +2.597% 0.4R -0.070% 0.0R 37.3× 24
4h +5.151% 0.7R -0.070% 0.0R 74.0× 48
6h ★ +5.179% 0.7R -0.070% 0.0R 74.4× 72
8h +7.950% 1.1R -0.070% 0.0R 114.2× 96
12h +7.950% 1.1R -0.070% 0.0R 114.2× 144

computed 4 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 6.29
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate grind expansion bear_high_confirmed
52%
noisy_chop 48% late near 0.0ATR — 0.36 bear_high -5.12% -1.00 12/08 20:00
4h ↓ down range range moderate fading compression bear_high
50%
choppy 47% late — — -0.02 bear_medium -1.00% -1.00 13/08 16:00
1h ↓ down range range moderate grind compression bear_high
58%
noisy_chop 38% early — — -0.05 range_low -0.68% -0.23 13/08 19:00
15m ↓ down range range moderate balanced compression bear_high
59%
noisy_chop 42% early — — 0.06 range_low -0.11% +0.06 13/08 19:45
5m —

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down late 15b — 7.786×ATR p83 -3.051×ATR p100
4h ↓ down late 73b — 24.606×ATR p100 -3.012×ATR p94
1h ↑ up early 3b — 1.031×ATR p0 -1.279×ATR p58
15m ↓ down early 5b — 1.759×ATR p12 -0.786×ATR p44

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 0.4617129
  2. tp_price: 0.42039075
  3. atr: 0.01221716
  4. expires_at: 2026-08-14T06:10:08+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 45
  2. total: 45
  3. score: 0.2371
  4. delta_2h: -0.0743
  5. extension_atr: -1.1
  6. trend_phase:
  7. trend_direction:
  8. rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.0365
  9. confidence: 1

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.4312 0.4617 0.4204 0.35 0.3052
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.4312
  • Stop Loss: 0.4617
  • Take Profit: 0.4204

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.4617 - 0.4312 = 0.0305

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.4312 - 0.4204 = 0.0108

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0108 / 0.0305 = 0.3541

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
112.9349 100 261.9267 1.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.0305

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0305 = 262.3

Taille de position USD = 262.3 x 0.4312 = 113.1

Donc, tu peux acheter 262.3 avec un stoploss a 0.4617

Avec un position size USD de 113.1$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 262.3 x 0.0305 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 262.3 x 0.0108 = 2.83

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 2.83$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 262.3
  • Taille de position USD 113.1
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 2.83
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 0.3541

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
2.5 % 2.83 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
7.07 % 7.99 $
PNL PNL %
2.83 $ 2.50
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-0.0696 % 0.98 % 1
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.4312 0.4617 0.4204 0.35 0.3052
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.4312
  • Stop Loss: 0.4617
  • Take Profit: 0.4204

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.4617 - 0.4312 = 0.0305

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.4312 - 0.4204 = 0.0108

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0108 / 0.0305 = 0.3541

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
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Extra SL data

                              Array
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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -7.073% (0.0305)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +2.447% 0.4R -0.000% 0.0R — 12
2h +2.597% 0.4R -0.070% 0.0R 37.3× 24
4h +5.151% 0.7R -0.070% 0.0R 74.0× 48
6h ★ +5.179% 0.7R -0.070% 0.0R 74.4× 72
8h +7.950% 1.1R -0.070% 0.0R 114.2× 96
12h +7.950% 1.1R -0.070% 0.0R 114.2× 144

computed 4 weeks ago

Commentaires

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