Short Trade on ONDO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1924.12 ONDO at 0.331$ per unit. Take profit: 0.3209 (3.14 %) & Stop Loss: 0.3354 (1.24 %)
14 Aug 2026 at 00:50:46
hyperliquid
ONDO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
14 Aug 2026 00:50
→ 12:50
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.3313$
Qty 1924.1222 ONDO
Size 637.4425$ (margin 100$) (leverage 6)
Risk Setup
TP 0.3209 (+3.14%)
TP $ 20.01$
SL 0.3354 (-1.24%)
SL $ 7.89$
RR 2.54
Status
win
PnL
+1.59%
/ +10.14$
MAE -0.40%
MFE +2.65%
2.1R
expires
14 Aug 12:50
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 68784)
#39 / 44
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 14/08/2026 00:00
score du 14/08/2026 00:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2512
Quality Score
0.448
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
90 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
1
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
14/08 00:46
14/08 00:46
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#39 / 44
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
90 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.24 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#39 / 44
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
90 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.24 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.10×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 3.24×ATR |
| 1d | near | 0.31×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 14/08 00:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 13/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 14/08 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 14/08 00:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.4478
Score SMA
0.4917
Rank
#39
/ 44
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2512
Rank Norm SMA
0.3707
Calculé le
14/08/2026 00:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4433 | r1h: -0.177% · r4h: -0.812% · r1d: -0.74% · r3d: -2.13% · ema21_slope: -0.0176% · dist_ema21: -0.448% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4725 | rs_1h: -0.035% · rs_4h: -0.653% · rs_1d: -0.36% · rs_3d: -0.96% · beta_24h: 1.611 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1490 | rvol_20: 0.27× · zscore_50: -0.765 · trend: -62.00% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4459 | ADX: 8.8 (weak) · Chop: 53.9 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.740% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.238%
(0.0041)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.154% | 0.1R | -0.220% | 0.2R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.154% | 0.1R | -0.401% | 0.3R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.528% | 0.4R | -0.401% | 0.3R | 1.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.977% | 1.6R | -0.401% | 0.3R | 4.9× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.647% | 2.1R | -0.401% | 0.3R | 6.6× | 143 |
| 24h | +3.003% | 2.4R | -0.401% | 0.3R | 7.5× | 288 |
computed 4 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 3.13
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid | near 0.3ATR | — | 0.63 | bear_high | -4.59% | -0.79 | 13/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early | — | — | 0.53 | bear_medium | -1.08% | -0.14 | 14/08 00:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early | near 0.1ATR | — | 0.58 | range_low | -0.69% | -0.07 | 14/08 00:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | explosive | expansion_after_compression | range_low |
44%
|
noisy_chop 44% | mid | near -0.1ATR | — | — | range_low | -0.17% | -0.07 | 14/08 00:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 15b | — | 5.198×ATR | p75 | -1.505×ATR | p75 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 8b | — | 1.236×ATR | p0 | -0.818×ATR | p49 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 9b | — | 1.905×ATR | p19 | -0.835×ATR | p54 |
| 15m | ↑ up | mid | 2b | — | 1.335×ATR | p0 | -1.281×ATR | p69 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8988
- reason: down_bo width=2.91×ATR dur=62b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.33544774
- tp_price: 0.32089565
- atr:
- score: 0.89875246882509
- expires_at: 2026-08-14T16:50:38.684642
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.89875246882509
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.1038
- obi_top10 : 0.0007
- micro_price : 0.33144506
- spread_pct : 0.030175
- mid_price : 0.33145
- bid_wall_price : 0.326
- bid_wall_size : 1799169.8
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.332
- ask_wall_size : 1707713.8
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.1037
- obi_top5_std : 0.0004
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6907
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.338935
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.331445
- balance_zone_mid:
0.33519
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786460400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786680000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.906
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
62
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8988
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786676400
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.331445
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.871
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.0601
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
5
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
10
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00257741 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
62
inside_close_ratio
0.871
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.0601
Signaux confirmants (7)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:50 | 0.33129000 | -0.003% |
| 2 | 00:56 | 0.33129000 | -0.003% |
| 3 | 01:04 | 0.33129000 | -0.003% |
| 4 | 03:08 | 0.33109000 | -0.063% |
| 5 | 03:15 | 0.33109000 | -0.063% |
| 6 | 05:38 | 0.32961000 | -0.51% |
| 7 | 05:44 | 0.32961000 | -0.51% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6907ms
Confidence avant OB :
90%
→
90%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.104
avg -0.104
± 0.000
OBI Top 10
0.001
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.3315
Micro Price
0.3314
Spread
0.0302%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.3260
Size
1,799,169.80
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.3320
Size
1,707,713.80
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3313 | 0.3354 | 0.3209 | 2.54 | 0.349 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.3313
- Stop Loss: 0.3354
- Take Profit: 0.3209
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.3354 - 0.3313 = 0.0041
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.3313 - 0.3209 = 0.0104
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0104 / 0.0041 = 2.5366
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 637.4425 | 100 | 1924.1222 | 6.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0041
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0041 = 1951.22
Taille de position USD = 1951.22 x 0.3313 = 646.44
Donc, tu peux acheter 1951.22 avec un stoploss a 0.3354
Avec un position size USD de 646.44$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1951.22 x 0.0041 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1951.22 x 0.0104 = 20.29
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.29$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1951.22
- Taille de position USD 646.44
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.29
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5366
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.14 % | 20.01 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.24 % | 7.89 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 10.14 $ | 1.59 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.4014 % | 32.44 % | 13 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3313 | 0.3354 | 0.3209 | 2.54 | 0.349 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.3313
- Stop Loss: 0.3354
- Take Profit: 0.3209
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.3354 - 0.3313 = 0.0041
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.3313 - 0.3209 = 0.0104
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0104 / 0.0041 = 2.5366
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.238%
(0.0041)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.154% | 0.1R | -0.220% | 0.2R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.154% | 0.1R | -0.401% | 0.3R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.528% | 0.4R | -0.401% | 0.3R | 1.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.977% | 1.6R | -0.401% | 0.3R | 4.9× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.647% | 2.1R | -0.401% | 0.3R | 6.6× | 143 |
| 24h | +3.003% | 2.4R | -0.401% | 0.3R | 7.5× | 288 |
computed 4 weeks ago
Commentaires
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