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Short Trade on KAITO

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14 Aug 2026 at 03:10:04 hyperliquid

Short Trade on KAITO (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 288.78 KAITO at 0.399$ per unit. Take profit: 0.3896 (2.48 %) & Stop Loss: 0.4272 (6.93 %)

KAITO SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 14 Aug 2026 03:10 → 09:10 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 0.3995$

Qty 288.7782 KAITO

Size 115.3785$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0.3896 (+2.48%)

TP $ 2.86$

SL 0.4272 (-6.93%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.36

Status loss PnL -0.74% / -0.86$ MAE -3.51% MFE +0.00% 0.0R expires 14 Aug 09:10 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 68928)
#46 / 46 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 14/08/2026 03:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.0930

Quality Score
0.326
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
100 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
2 OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
8.3M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
14/08 03:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#46 / 46 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.93 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#46 / 46 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.93 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear —
4h clear —
1d near -0.29×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
3/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down late BLOCKED
4h ↓ down late BLOCKED
1d ↓ down late BLOCKED
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : bear_low

rules_regime_5m : bear_low

Score : 2

ml_regime : bear_high

Strategic (1D) : range_high (0)

Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1)

Tactical (1H) : range_low (0)

14/08 03:00

Score : +1

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high_confirmed (+3)

13/08 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

14/08 00:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

14/08 02:00

Score : +6 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot)
range compression range_breakdown_risk
Strategic range compression — 0
Operational bear transition — +1
Tactical range range — 0
Micro — —
MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 0.80
Transition risk : 0.20
Score contribution (this trade) +1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score —
Impulse : —
% Positive (universe)
15m —
1h —
4h —
24h —
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m — —
4h — —
24h — —
Dispersion : —
Universe : —
Regime confidence : 0.63
Snapshot évalué : 14/08 03:00 · env range_with_pressure

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1H
Score brut
0.3257
Score SMA
0.3889
Rank
#46 / 46
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0930
Rank Norm SMA
0.0728
Calculé le
14/08/2026 03:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.0930 r1h: -1.474% · r4h: -2.101% · r1d: -11.07% · r3d: -38.36% · ema21_slope: -0.4675% · dist_ema21: -5.932%
Force Relative 25% 0.1696 rs_1h: -1.138% · rs_4h: -1.636% · rs_1d: -9.92% · rs_3d: -37.15% · beta_24h: 0.890
Volume 20% 0.2040 rvol_20: 0.70× · zscore_50: -0.554 · trend: -42.73%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7638 ADX: 37.2 (trend) · Chop: 43.9 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.706% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -6.934% (0.0277)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.000% 0.0R -2.936% 0.4R 0.0× 12
2h +0.000% 0.0R -3.509% 0.5R 0.0× 24
4h +0.000% 0.0R -3.509% 0.5R 0.0× 48
6h ★ +0.000% 0.0R -3.509% 0.5R 0.0× 72
8h +0.000% 0.0R -3.509% 0.5R 0.0× 96
12h +1.392% 0.2R -3.509% 0.5R 0.4× 144

computed 1 month ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate grind normal bear_high_confirmed
52%
noisy_chop 51% late near -0.3ATR — 0.36 bear_high -4.90% -1.00 13/08 20:00
4h ↓ down range range moderate fading compression bear_high
51%
choppy 50% late — — -0.02 bear_medium -1.17% -1.00 14/08 00:00
1h ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong fading compression bear_high
55%
noisy_chop 44% late — — -0.04 bear_low -1.02% -0.78 14/08 02:00
15m ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate fading compression bear_high
59%
noisy_chop 48% late — — 0.06 range_low -0.47% -0.35 14/08 02:45
5m —

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down late 16b — 8.472×ATR p83 -3.199×ATR p100
4h ↓ down late 75b — 27.36×ATR p100 -3.144×ATR p95
1h ↓ down late 8b — 3.107×ATR p72 -2.501×ATR p85
15m ↓ down late 14b — 3.558×ATR p67 -3.024×ATR p87

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 0.42724292
  2. tp_price: 0.3895515
  3. atr: 0.01108117
  4. expires_at: 2026-08-14T13:10:04+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 46
  2. total: 46
  3. score: 0.093
  4. delta_2h: -0.0924
  5. extension_atr: -2.49
  6. trend_phase:
  7. trend_direction:
  8. rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.093
  9. confidence: 1

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.3995 0.4272 0.3896 0.36 0.2864
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.3995
  • Stop Loss: 0.4272
  • Take Profit: 0.3896

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.4272 - 0.3995 = 0.0277

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.3995 - 0.3896 = 0.0099

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0099 / 0.0277 = 0.3574

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
115.3785 100 288.7782 1.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.0277

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0277 = 288.81

Taille de position USD = 288.81 x 0.3995 = 115.38

Donc, tu peux acheter 288.81 avec un stoploss a 0.4272

Avec un position size USD de 115.38$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 288.81 x 0.0277 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 288.81 x 0.0099 = 2.86

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 2.86$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 288.81
  • Taille de position USD 115.38
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 2.86
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 0.3574

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
2.48 % 2.86 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
6.93 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
-0.86 $ -0.74
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-3.5094 % 50.61 % 0
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.3995 0.4272 0.3896 0.36 0.2864
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.3995
  • Stop Loss: 0.4272
  • Take Profit: 0.3896

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.4272 - 0.3995 = 0.0277

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.3995 - 0.3896 = 0.0099

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0099 / 0.0277 = 0.3574

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
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Extra SL data

                              Array
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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -6.934% (0.0277)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.000% 0.0R -2.936% 0.4R 0.0× 12
2h +0.000% 0.0R -3.509% 0.5R 0.0× 24
4h +0.000% 0.0R -3.509% 0.5R 0.0× 48
6h ★ +0.000% 0.0R -3.509% 0.5R 0.0× 72
8h +0.000% 0.0R -3.509% 0.5R 0.0× 96
12h +1.392% 0.2R -3.509% 0.5R 0.4× 144

computed 1 month ago

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