Short Trade on ARB (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 8791.4 ARB at 0.0743$ per unit. Take profit: 0.072 (3.06 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07518 (1.23 %)
14 Aug 2026 at 06:06:53
hyperliquid
ARB
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
14 Aug 2026 06:06
→ 13:45
· 7 hours
Position
Entry 0.07427$
Qty 8791.402 ARB
Size 652.9374$ (margin 100$) (leverage 7)
Risk Setup
TP 0.072 (+3.06%)
TP $ 19.96$
SL 0.07518 (-1.23%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.49
Status
loss
PnL
-1.23%
/ -8$
MAE -1.29%
MFE +1.21%
1.0R
expires
14 Aug 18:06
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 69038)
#45 / 48
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 14/08/2026 06:00
score du 14/08/2026 06:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3227
Quality Score
0.424
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
3
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
14/08 06:00
14/08 06:00
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#45 / 48
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.23 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#45 / 48
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.23 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -1.18×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.84×ATR |
| 1d | near | -1.08×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bear_low_vol rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : bear_low Score : 3 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 14/08 06:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 13/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 14/08 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 14/08 05:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | transition | — | +1 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.80
Transition risk :
0.20
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.63
Snapshot évalué : 14/08 06:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.4237
Score SMA
0.4683
Rank
#45
/ 48
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3227
Rank Norm SMA
0.2561
Calculé le
14/08/2026 06:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3667 | r1h: -2.057% · r4h: -1.668% · r1d: -0.79% · r3d: -7.17% · ema21_slope: -0.0119% · dist_ema21: -1.269% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3817 | rs_1h: -1.784% · rs_4h: -0.662% · rs_1d: 0.78% · rs_3d: -4.80% · beta_24h: 1.442 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2741 | rvol_20: 0.85× · zscore_50: -0.363 · trend: -18.76% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4228 | ADX: 15.3 (weak) · Chop: 63.5 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.923% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.225%
(0.0009)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.067% | 0.1R | -0.458% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.175% | 0.1R | -0.458% | 0.4R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.175% | 0.1R | -0.821% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.337% | 0.3R | -1.293% | 1.1R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.212% | 1.0R | -1.293% | 1.1R | 0.9× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.872% | 1.5R | -1.508% | 1.2R | 1.2× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.8
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | near -1.1ATR | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -4.90% | -0.63 | 13/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | explosive | normal | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid | near -0.8ATR | — | 0.55 | bear_medium | -1.86% | -0.39 | 14/08 04:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | normal | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late | near -1.2ATR | — | 0.45 | bear_low | -1.59% | -0.01 | 14/08 05:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bear_medium_confirmed |
57%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late | near -0.1ATR | — | — | bear_low | -0.94% | +0.01 | 14/08 05:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 33b | — | 7.067×ATR | p89 | -1.267×ATR | p56 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 14b | — | 3.644×ATR | p75 | -0.591×ATR | p41 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 1b | — | 2.276×ATR | p30 | -1.57×ATR | p83 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 3b | — | 4.288×ATR | p82 | -2.559×ATR | p90 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8392
- reason: down_bo width=2.20×ATR dur=25b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.07517998
- tp_price: 0.07199504
- atr:
- score: 0.83921211177671
- expires_at: 2026-08-14T22:06:45.402622
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.83921211177671
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0535
- obi_top10 : 0.0176
- micro_price : 0.07422723
- spread_pct : 0.134771
- mid_price : 0.07425
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.0748
- ask_wall_size : 2893783.22
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0534
- obi_top5_std : 0.0001
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7042
- aggregation_tick : 0.0001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.07583
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.0744
- balance_zone_mid:
0.075115
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786615200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786701600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.2006
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
25
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: forming
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8392
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786698000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.0744
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.92
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.2001
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
6
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
6
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00064982 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
25
inside_close_ratio
0.92
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.2001
Signaux confirmants (19)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:06 | 0.07427000 | 0% |
| 2 | 06:12 | 0.07427000 | 0% |
| 3 | 07:18 | 0.07414000 | -0.175% |
| 4 | 07:24 | 0.07414000 | -0.175% |
| 5 | 07:31 | 0.07414000 | -0.175% |
| 6 | 07:48 | 0.07429000 | +0.027% |
| 7 | 07:54 | 0.07429000 | +0.027% |
| 8 | 08:01 | 0.07429000 | +0.027% |
| 9 | 08:18 | 0.07433000 | +0.081% |
| 10 | 08:24 | 0.07433000 | +0.081% |
| 11 | 08:31 | 0.07433000 | +0.081% |
| 12 | 08:48 | 0.07431000 | +0.054% |
| 13 | 08:54 | 0.07431000 | +0.054% |
| 14 | 09:01 | 0.07431000 | +0.054% |
| 15 | 11:07 | 0.07416000 | -0.148% |
| 16 | 11:12 | 0.07416000 | -0.148% |
| 17 | 11:18 | 0.07431000 | +0.054% |
| 18 | 11:24 | 0.07431000 | +0.054% |
| 19 | 11:31 | 0.07431000 | +0.054% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7042ms
Confidence avant OB :
84%
→
84%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.054
avg 0.053
± 0.000
OBI Top 10
0.018
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0743
Micro Price
0.0742
Spread
0.1348%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.0748
Size
2,893,783.22
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07427 | 0.07518 | 0.072 | 2.49 | 0.1507 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07427
- Stop Loss: 0.07518
- Take Profit: 0.072
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07518 - 0.07427 = 0.00090999999999999
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07427 - 0.072 = 0.00227
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00227 / 0.00090999999999999 = 2.4945
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 652.9374 | 100 | 8791.402 | 7.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00090999999999999
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00090999999999999 = 8791.21
Taille de position USD = 8791.21 x 0.07427 = 652.92
Donc, tu peux acheter 8791.21 avec un stoploss a 0.07518
Avec un position size USD de 652.92$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 8791.21 x 0.00090999999999999 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 8791.21 x 0.00227 = 19.96
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.96$
Résumé
- Taille de position 8791.21
- Taille de position USD 652.92
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.96
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4945
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.06 % | 19.96 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.23 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -1.23 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.2522 % | 102.2 % | 21 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07427 | 0.07518 | 0.072 | 2.49 | 0.1507 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07427
- Stop Loss: 0.07518
- Take Profit: 0.072
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07518 - 0.07427 = 0.00090999999999999
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07427 - 0.072 = 0.00227
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00227 / 0.00090999999999999 = 2.4945
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.225%
(0.0009)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.067% | 0.1R | -0.458% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.175% | 0.1R | -0.458% | 0.4R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.175% | 0.1R | -0.821% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.337% | 0.3R | -1.293% | 1.1R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.212% | 1.0R | -1.293% | 1.1R | 0.9× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.872% | 1.5R | -1.508% | 1.2R | 1.2× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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