Short Trade on XRP

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14 Aug 2026 at 19:49:54 hyperliquid

Short Trade on XRP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 851.14 XRP at 0.998$ per unit. Take profit: 0.9745 (2.35 %) & Stop Loss: 1.0074 (0.94 %)

XRP SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 14 Aug 2026 19:49 → 07:45 · 11 hours

Position

Entry 0.998$

Qty 851.1381 XRP

Size 849.4528$ (margin 100$) (leverage 8)

Risk Setup

TP 0.9745 (+2.35%)

TP $ 20$

SL 1.0074 (-0.94%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -0.41% / -3.49$ MAE -0.92% MFE +0.04% 0.0R expires 15 Aug 07:49 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 69658)

#5 / 49 OUT

seuil : top 15
score du 14/08/2026 19:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.4416

Quality Score

0.630

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

76 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

1 OK

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

23.0M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
14/08 19:45

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#5 / 49 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

76 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

+8 OK

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

0.94 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#5 / 49 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

76 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

+8 OK

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

0.94 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	0.87×ATR
4h	near	-2.35×ATR
1d	clear	—

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↑ up	early	OK
4h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
1d	↓ down	late	BLOCKED

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1	ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : bear_low (+1) 14/08 19:00 Score : +2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : bear_low

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 1

ml_regime : bear_high

Strategic (1D) : range_high (0)

Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1)

Tactical (1H) : bear_low (+1)

14/08 19:00

Score : +2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 13/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 14/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1) 14/08 19:00 Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3)

13/08 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

14/08 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1)

14/08 19:00

Score : +6 / ±6

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Score brut

0.6302

Score SMA

0.5009

Rank

#5 / 49

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.4416

Rank Norm SMA

0.4500

Calculé le

14/08/2026 19:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.4268	r1h: -0.605% · r4h: -0.772% · r1d: -1.68% · r3d: -2.88% · ema21_slope: -0.0455% · dist_ema21: -1.008%
Force Relative	25%	0.4419	rs_1h: -0.521% · rs_4h: -0.698% · rs_1d: -0.64% · rs_3d: -1.67% · beta_24h: 0.565
Volume	20%	0.9849	rvol_20: 4.16× · zscore_50: 3.796 · trend: 88.71%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6316	ADX: 15.8 (weak) · Chop: 35.1 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 0.460% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -0.942% (0.0094)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.038%	0.0R	-0.301%	0.3R	0.1×	12
2h	+0.038%	0.0R	-0.331%	0.4R	0.1×	24
4h	+0.038%	0.0R	-0.922%	1.0R	0.0×	48
8h	+0.038%	0.0R	-0.922%	1.0R	0.0×	96
12h ★	+0.038%	0.0R	-0.922%	1.0R	0.0×	144
24h	+0.038%	0.0R	-0.922%	1.0R	0.0×	288

computed 1 month ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.13

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↓ down	range	range	moderate	fading	compression	bear_high	53%	noisy_chop 43%	late	—	—	0.86	bear_high	-5.26%	-0.62	13/08 20:00
4h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	strong	explosive	compression	bear_high	62%	noisy_chop 41%	late	near -2.3ATR	—	0.79	bear_medium	-1.74%	+0.00	14/08 16:00
1h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	strong	grind	volatile_reversal	bear_medium	54%	noisy_chop 39%	early	—	—	0.63	bear_low	-0.87%	-0.06	14/08 19:00
15m	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	expansion	range_low	44%	noisy_chop 40%	late	—	near 0.4ATR	—	range_low	-0.08%	-0.04	14/08 19:30
5m	—

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	late	24b	—	5.712×ATR	p80	-1.794×ATR	p91
4h	↓ down	late	18b	—	3.581×ATR	p56	-1.905×ATR	p90
1h	↑ up	early	1b	—	2.347×ATR	p46	-0.711×ATR	p38
15m	↑ up	late	5b	—	4.376×ATR	p80	+0.412×ATR	p24

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

long_trend: -1
confidence: 0.7574
reason: down_bo width=2.92×ATR dur=49b phase=fresh
stop_price: 1.00741918
tp_price: 0.97452205
atr:
score: 0.75741152986691
expires_at: 2026-08-15T11:49:47.385315
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.75741152986691

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : 0.0426
obi_top10 : 0.0522
micro_price : 0.99832426
spread_pct : 0.010017
mid_price : 0.99835
bid_wall_price : 0.994
bid_wall_size : 3607616
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price : 1
ask_wall_size : 4606737.6
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 5
obi_top5_mean : 0.0425
obi_top5_std : 0
pressure_side : neutral
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 6874
aggregation_tick : 0.001
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
1.0138
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
1.0001
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
1.00695
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1786575600
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1786748400
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
2.92
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
49
```
balance_zone_quality: tight
balance_zone_maturity: established
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.7574
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1786730400
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
1.0001
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.8571
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
5
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
0.4433
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
5
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
10
```
regime : bear_high
atr_entry : 0.0046918

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.8571

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

0.4433

Signaux confirmants (3)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	19:49	0.99802000	+0.002%
2	19:55	0.99802000	+0.002%
3	20:03	0.99802000	+0.002%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 6874ms Confidence avant OB : 76% → 76%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.043

avg 0.043 ± 0.000

OBI Top 10 0.052

Microstructure

Mid Price

0.9984

Micro Price

0.9983

Spread

0.0100%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price

0.9940

Size

3,607,616.00

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price

1.0000

Size

4,606,737.60

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.998	1.0074	0.9745	2.5	1.3976

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.998
Stop Loss: 1.0074
Take Profit: 0.9745

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 1.0074 - 0.998 = 0.0094000000000001
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.998 - 0.9745 = 0.0235
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0235 / 0.0094000000000001 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
849.4528	100	851.1381	8.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.0094000000000001

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0094000000000001 = 851.06

Taille de position USD = 851.06 x 0.998 = 849.36

Donc, tu peux acheter 851.06 avec un stoploss a 1.0074

Avec un position size USD de 849.36$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 851.06 x 0.0094000000000001 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 851.06 x 0.0235 = 20

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$

Résumé

Taille de position 851.06
Taille de position USD 849.36
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 20
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.35 %	20 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
0.94 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-3.49 $	-0.41

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-0.9218 %	97.87 %	2

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.998	1.0074	0.9745	2.5	1.3976

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.998
Stop Loss: 1.0074
Take Profit: 0.9745

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 1.0074 - 0.998 = 0.0094000000000001
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.998 - 0.9745 = 0.0235
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0235 / 0.0094000000000001 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -0.942% (0.0094)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.038%	0.0R	-0.301%	0.3R	0.1×	12
2h	+0.038%	0.0R	-0.331%	0.4R	0.1×	24
4h	+0.038%	0.0R	-0.922%	1.0R	0.0×	48
8h	+0.038%	0.0R	-0.922%	1.0R	0.0×	96
12h ★	+0.038%	0.0R	-0.922%	1.0R	0.0×	144
24h	+0.038%	0.0R	-0.922%	1.0R	0.0×	288

computed 1 month ago

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