Long Trade on XMR (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1.09 XMR at 404.16$ per unit. Take profit: 422.5751 (4.56 %) & Stop Loss: 396.794 (1.82 %)
14 Aug 2026 at 22:11:49
hyperliquid
XMR
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
14 Aug 2026 22:11
→ 10:10
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 404.16$
Qty 1.0861 XMR
Size 438.9443$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 422.5751 (+4.56%)
TP $ 20$
SL 396.794 (-1.82%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-0.59%
/ -2.6$
MAE -0.78%
MFE +1.20%
0.7R
expires
15 Aug 10:11
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 69841)
#12 / 50
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 14/08/2026 22:00
score du 14/08/2026 22:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5743
Quality Score
0.541
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
93 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
4.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
14/08 22:02
14/08 22:02
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#12 / 50
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
93 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#12 / 50
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
93 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.82×ATR |
| 4h | near | 0.01×ATR |
| 1d | near | -0.05×ATR |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (-1) Tactical (1H) : bear_low (-1) 14/08 22:00 Score : -2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3) 14/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 14/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 14/08 21:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | transition | — | -1 |
| Tactical | bear | transition | — | -1 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.87
Transition risk :
0.13
Score contribution (this trade)
-2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.67
Snapshot évalué : 14/08 22:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.5413
Score SMA
0.5050
Rank
#12
/ 50
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5743
Rank Norm SMA
0.5377
Calculé le
14/08/2026 22:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5906 | r1h: 0.879% · r4h: 1.266% · r1d: 1.69% · r3d: 5.69% · ema21_slope: 0.0230% · dist_ema21: 1.230% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.6484 | rs_1h: 0.859% · rs_4h: 1.107% · rs_1d: 2.56% · rs_3d: 6.90% · beta_24h: 0.399 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1485 | rvol_20: 0.47× · zscore_50: -1.063 · trend: -35.45% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4824 | ADX: 16.6 (weak) · Chop: 57.4 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.741% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.823%
(7.3660)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.307% | 0.2R | -0.252% | 0.1R | 1.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.727% | 0.4R | -0.252% | 0.1R | 2.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.977% | 0.5R | -0.252% | 0.1R | 3.9× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.198% | 0.7R | -0.252% | 0.1R | 4.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.198% | 0.7R | -0.782% | 0.4R | 1.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +3.061% | 1.7R | -0.782% | 0.4R | 3.9× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 4.46
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bull_high |
72%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late | — | near -0.1ATR | 0.50 | bear_high | -5.24% | +0.92 | 14/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
65%
|
noisy_chop 47% | early | — | near 0.0ATR | 0.30 | bear_medium | -1.55% | +0.44 | 14/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | balanced | normal | bull_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | — | — | 0.12 | bear_low | -0.80% | +0.23 | 14/08 21:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bull_low |
49%
|
ranging_calm 55% | late | — | — | 0.10 | range_low | -0.03% | +0.15 | 14/08 21:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 6b | — | 1.003×ATR | p0 | +1.703×ATR | p89 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 10b | — | 1.259×ATR | p0 | +0.71×ATR | p43 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 6b | — | 3.107×ATR | p70 | +1.55×ATR | p77 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 17b | — | 7.8×ATR | p96 | +3.651×ATR | p100 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.9315
- reason: up_bo width=2.44×ATR dur=66b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 396.79396251
- tp_price: 422.57509373
- atr:
- score: 0.93154490151056
- expires_at: 2026-08-15T14:11:41.590853
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.93154490151056
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1016
- obi_top10 : 0.0677
- micro_price : 404.315
- spread_pct : 0.032158
- mid_price : 404.315
- bid_wall_price : 403
- bid_wall_size : 672.38
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 405
- ask_wall_size : 612.352
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.1001
- obi_top5_std : 0.0014
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6800
- aggregation_tick : 1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
400.5
- balance_zone_bottom:
393.65
- balance_zone_mid:
397.075
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786525200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786759200
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.4374
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
66
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.9315
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786755600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
400.5
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7576
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.3023
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
9
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
8
- regime : bull_high
- atr_entry : 2.8103749 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
66
inside_close_ratio
0.7576
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.3023
Signaux confirmants (12)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22:11 | 404.16000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 22:17 | 404.16000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 22:22 | 404.57000000 | +0.101% |
| 4 | 22:29 | 404.57000000 | +0.101% |
| 5 | 22:35 | 404.57000000 | +0.101% |
| 6 | 22:40 | 403.70000000 | -0.114% |
| 7 | 22:47 | 403.70000000 | -0.114% |
| 8 | 22:53 | 403.84000000 | -0.079% |
| 9 | 22:59 | 403.84000000 | -0.079% |
| 10 | 23:06 | 403.84000000 | -0.079% |
| 11 | 01:41 | 404.73000000 | +0.141% |
| 12 | 01:47 | 404.73000000 | +0.141% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6800ms
Confidence avant OB :
93%
→
93%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.102
avg 0.100
± 0.001
OBI Top 10
0.068
Microstructure
Mid Price
404.3150
Micro Price
404.3150
Spread
0.0322%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
403.0000
Size
672.38
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
405.0000
Size
612.35
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 404.16 | 396.794 | 422.5751 | 2.5 | 524.57 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 404.16
- Stop Loss: 396.794
- Take Profit: 422.5751
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 396.794 - 404.16 = -7.366
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 404.16 - 422.5751 = -18.4151
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -18.4151 / -7.366 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 438.9443 | 100 | 1.0861 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -7.366
Taille de position = 8 / -7.366 = -1.09
Taille de position USD = -1.09 x 404.16 = -440.53
Donc, tu peux acheter -1.09 avec un stoploss a 396.794
Avec un position size USD de -440.53$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -1.09 x -7.366 = 8.03
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8.03$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -1.09 x -18.4151 = 20.07
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.07$
Résumé
- Taille de position -1.09
- Taille de position USD -440.53
- Perte potentielle 8.03
- Gain potentiel 20.07
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.56 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.82 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -2.6 $ | -0.59 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.7819 % | 42.9 % | 17 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 404.16 | 396.794 | 422.5751 | 2.5 | 524.57 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 404.16
- Stop Loss: 396.794
- Take Profit: 422.5751
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 396.794 - 404.16 = -7.366
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 404.16 - 422.5751 = -18.4151
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -18.4151 / -7.366 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.823%
(7.3660)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.307% | 0.2R | -0.252% | 0.1R | 1.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.727% | 0.4R | -0.252% | 0.1R | 2.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.977% | 0.5R | -0.252% | 0.1R | 3.9× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.198% | 0.7R | -0.252% | 0.1R | 4.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.198% | 0.7R | -0.782% | 0.4R | 1.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +3.061% | 1.7R | -0.782% | 0.4R | 3.9× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.