Short Trade on PENGU (momentum_pullback_v1)
With 131147.54 PENGU at 0.00606$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006027 (0.61 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006125 (1.01 %)
15 Aug 2026 at 00:15:11
hyperliquid
PENGU
SHORT
momentum_pullback_v1
hyperliquid
15 Aug 2026 00:15
→ 03:45
· 3 hours
Position
Entry 0.006064$
Qty 131147.541 PENGU
Size 795.2787$ (margin 100$) (leverage 8)
Risk Setup
TP 0.006027 (+0.61%)
TP $ 4.85$
SL 0.006125 (-1.01%)
SL $ 8$
RR 0.61
Status
win
PnL
+0.61%
/ +4.85$
MAE -0.56%
MFE +1.17%
1.2R
expires
15 Aug 12:15
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 69927)
#45 / 49
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 15/08/2026 00:00
score du 15/08/2026 00:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.1726
Quality Score
0.432
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
86 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
1
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
15/08 00:02
15/08 00:02
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#45 / 49
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
86 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.01 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#45 / 49
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
86 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.01 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.10×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.05×ATR |
| 1d | near | -0.04×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 15/08 00:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 14/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 14/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1) 14/08 23:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | transition | — | +1 |
| Tactical | range | transition | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.87
Transition risk :
0.13
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.67
Snapshot évalué : 15/08 00:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.4315
Score SMA
0.4878
Rank
#45
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1726
Rank Norm SMA
0.3292
Calculé le
15/08/2026 00:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3971 | r1h: -0.670% · r4h: -0.573% · r1d: -2.00% · r3d: -5.12% · ema21_slope: -0.0735% · dist_ema21: -0.545% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4127 | rs_1h: -0.537% · rs_4h: -0.600% · rs_1d: -1.57% · rs_3d: -3.94% · beta_24h: 1.573 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1518 | rvol_20: 0.12× · zscore_50: -0.723 · trend: -76.02% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5256 | ADX: 33.2 (trend) · Chop: 69.3 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.671% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_pullback_v1 (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.006%
(0.0001)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.099% | 0.1R | -0.561% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.363% | 0.4R | -0.561% | 0.6R | 0.7× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.940% | 0.9R | -0.561% | 0.6R | 1.7× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.940% | 0.9R | -0.561% | 0.6R | 1.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.171% | 1.2R | -0.561% | 0.6R | 2.1× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 1.66
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early | near 0.0ATR | — | 0.73 | bear_high | -5.24% | -0.06 | 14/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | — | — | 0.58 | bear_medium | -1.31% | -0.35 | 14/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bear_medium |
58%
|
noisy_chop 43% | early | — | — | 0.46 | range_low | -0.73% | -0.18 | 14/08 23:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | strong | explosive | compression | range_low |
43%
|
noisy_chop 45% | mid | — | — | 0.49 | range_low | +0.00% | +0.02 | 14/08 23:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 6b | — | 2.483×ATR | p0 | -0.249×ATR | p13 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 27b | — | 5.66×ATR | p93 | -1.123×ATR | p68 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 6b | — | 1.325×ATR | p2 | -0.821×ATR | p51 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 6b | — | 3.27×ATR | p48 | -1.343×ATR | p63 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_pullback_v1 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.006125
- tp_price: 0.00602717
- atr: 1.473E-5
- expires_at: 2026-08-15T16:15:11+00:00
Details
- rank: 43
- total: 50
- score: 0.3971
- avg_rank_8h: 41.5
- rank_velocity: 1.5
- pullback_depth_atr: 6.99
- trigger_price: 0.006094
- fip_24h: -0.083
- confidence: 0.857
Signal Details
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006064 | 0.006125 | 0.006027 | 0.61 | 0.008789 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.006064
- Stop Loss: 0.006125
- Take Profit: 0.006027
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006125 - 0.006064 = 6.1E-5
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006064 - 0.006027 = 3.7E-5
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 3.7E-5 / 6.1E-5 = 0.6066
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 795.2787 | 100 | 131147.541 | 8.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 6.1E-5
Taille de position = 8 / 6.1E-5 = 131147.54
Taille de position USD = 131147.54 x 0.006064 = 795.28
Donc, tu peux acheter 131147.54 avec un stoploss a 0.006125
Avec un position size USD de 795.28$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 131147.54 x 6.1E-5 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 131147.54 x 3.7E-5 = 4.85
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 4.85$
Résumé
- Taille de position 131147.54
- Taille de position USD 795.28
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 4.85
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.6066
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.61 % | 4.85 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.01 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 4.85 $ | 0.61 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5607 % | 55.74 % | 6 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006064 | 0.006125 | 0.006027 | 0.61 | 0.008789 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.006064
- Stop Loss: 0.006125
- Take Profit: 0.006027
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006125 - 0.006064 = 6.1E-5
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006064 - 0.006027 = 3.7E-5
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 3.7E-5 / 6.1E-5 = 0.6066
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_pullback_v1 (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.006%
(0.0001)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.099% | 0.1R | -0.561% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.363% | 0.4R | -0.561% | 0.6R | 0.7× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.940% | 0.9R | -0.561% | 0.6R | 1.7× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.940% | 0.9R | -0.561% | 0.6R | 1.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.171% | 1.2R | -0.561% | 0.6R | 2.1× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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