Short Trade on BTC (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 0.038 BTC at 62836$ per unit. Take profit: 62304.6489 (0.85 %) & Stop Loss: 63048.5404 (0.34 %)
16 Aug 2026 at 18:06:15
hyperliquid
BTC
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
16 Aug 2026 18:06
→ 21:00
· 2 hours
Position
Entry 62836$
Qty 0.03764 BTC
Size 2365.1406$ (margin 100$) (leverage 24)
Risk Setup
TP 62304.6489 (+0.85%)
TP $ 20$
SL 63048.5404 (-0.34%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-0.34%
/ -8$
MAE -1.35%
MFE +0.25%
0.7R
expires
17 Aug 06:06
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 71611)
#21 / 36
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 16/08/2026 18:00
score du 16/08/2026 18:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3922
Quality Score
0.565
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
86 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
1
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
432.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
16/08 18:00
16/08 18:00
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#21 / 36
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
86 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+5
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.34 %
TIGHT
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#21 / 36
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
86 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.34 %
TIGHT
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.23×ATR |
| 4h | near | 0.13×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.01×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low_confirmed rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 16/08 18:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 15/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+2) 16/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 16/08 17:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1577
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | expansion | — | +1 |
| Tactical | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.87
Transition risk :
0.13
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.67
Snapshot évalué :
16/08 18:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
16/08/2026 18:00
Score brut
0.5654
Score SMA
0.4338
Rank
#21
/ 36
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3922
Rank Norm SMA
0.1574
Calculé le
16/08/2026 18:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4798 | r1h: -0.194% · r4h: -0.353% · r1d: -0.35% · r3d: -0.89% · ema21_slope: 0.0010% · dist_ema21: -0.228% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5000 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.00% · rs_3d: 0.00% · beta_24h: 1.000 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.7001 | rvol_20: 2.27× · zscore_50: 1.700 · trend: 28.17% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6768 | ADX: 21.2 (weak) · Chop: 19.7 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.5489 | ATR%: 0.165% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.338%
(212.5404)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.251% | 0.7R | -0.232% | 0.7R | 1.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.251% | 0.7R | -0.232% | 0.7R | 1.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.251% | 0.7R | -0.614% | 1.8R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.251% | 0.7R | -1.151% | 3.4R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.251% | 0.7R | -1.351% | 4.0R | 0.2× | 143 |
| 24h | +0.251% | 0.7R | -2.776% | 8.2R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.25
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | — | near -0.3ATR | — | — | — | — | 15/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_medium |
57%
|
noisy_chop 32% | early | near 0.1ATR | — | — | — | — | — | 16/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | volatile_reversal | range_low |
32%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late | near -0.2ATR | — | — | — | — | — | 16/08 17:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | expansion_after_compression | range_low |
45%
|
noisy_chop 47% | late | near -0.1ATR | — | — | — | — | — | 16/08 18:00 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 26b | — | 3.148×ATR | p21 | -0.655×ATR | p40 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 14b | — | 1.891×ATR | p0 | -0.822×ATR | p43 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 5b | — | 4.402×ATR | p82 | -1.413×ATR | p78 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 2b | — | 2.689×ATR | p31 | -2.24×ATR | p85 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8608
- reason: down_bo width=2.31×ATR dur=54b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 63048.54043136
- tp_price: 62304.64892159
- atr:
- score: 0.86081178452688
- expires_at: 2026-08-17T10:06:07.968773
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.86081178452688
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0445
- obi_top10 : 0.0445
- micro_price : 62847.18283663
- spread_pct : 0.000159
- mid_price : 62847.15
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0508
- obi_top5_std : 0.0054
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7054
- aggregation_tick : 100
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
63160
- balance_zone_bottom:
62916
- balance_zone_mid:
63038
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786726800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786917600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.3149
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
54
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8608
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786914000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
62916
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8704
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.759
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
3
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
6
- regime : bear_medium
- atr_entry : 105.40431364 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
54
inside_close_ratio
0.8704
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.759
Signaux confirmants (27)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:06 | 62836.00000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 18:12 | 62836.00000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 18:18 | 62897.00000000 | +0.097% |
| 4 | 18:24 | 62897.00000000 | +0.097% |
| 5 | 18:30 | 62897.00000000 | +0.097% |
| 6 | 18:36 | 62785.00000000 | -0.081% |
| 7 | 18:42 | 62785.00000000 | -0.081% |
| 8 | 19:06 | 62912.00000000 | +0.121% |
| 9 | 19:12 | 62912.00000000 | +0.121% |
| 10 | 19:18 | 62818.00000000 | -0.029% |
| 11 | 19:24 | 62818.00000000 | -0.029% |
| 12 | 19:30 | 62818.00000000 | -0.029% |
| 13 | 19:36 | 62818.00000000 | -0.029% |
| 14 | 19:42 | 62818.00000000 | -0.029% |
| 15 | 19:48 | 62876.00000000 | +0.064% |
| 16 | 19:54 | 62876.00000000 | +0.064% |
| 17 | 20:00 | 62876.00000000 | +0.064% |
| 18 | 20:06 | 62897.00000000 | +0.097% |
| 19 | 20:12 | 62897.00000000 | +0.097% |
| 20 | 20:18 | 62874.00000000 | +0.06% |
| 21 | 20:24 | 62874.00000000 | +0.06% |
| 22 | 20:30 | 62874.00000000 | +0.06% |
| 23 | 20:36 | 62760.00000000 | -0.121% |
| 24 | 20:42 | 62760.00000000 | -0.121% |
| 25 | 20:48 | 62898.00000000 | +0.099% |
| 26 | 20:54 | 62898.00000000 | +0.099% |
| 27 | 21:00 | 62898.00000000 | +0.099% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7054ms
Confidence avant OB :
86%
→
86%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.045
avg 0.051
± 0.005
OBI Top 10
0.045
Microstructure
Mid Price
62,847.1500
Micro Price
62,847.1828
Spread
0.0002%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62836 | 63048.5404 | 62304.6489 | 2.5 | 85927 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 62836
- Stop Loss: 63048.5404
- Take Profit: 62304.6489
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 63048.5404 - 62836 = 212.5404
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 62836 - 62304.6489 = 531.3511
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 531.3511 / 212.5404 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2365.1406 | 100 | 0.03764 | 24.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 212.5404
Taille de position = 8 / 212.5404 = 0.04
Taille de position USD = 0.04 x 62836 = 2513.44
Donc, tu peux acheter 0.04 avec un stoploss a 63048.5404
Avec un position size USD de 2513.44$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 0.04 x 212.5404 = 8.5
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8.5$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 0.04 x 531.3511 = 21.25
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 21.25$
Résumé
- Taille de position 0.04
- Taille de position USD 2513.44
- Perte potentielle 8.5
- Gain potentiel 21.25
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.85 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.34 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -0.34 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.4361 % | 128.95 % | 15 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62836 | 63048.5404 | 62304.6489 | 2.5 | 85927 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 62836
- Stop Loss: 63048.5404
- Take Profit: 62304.6489
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 63048.5404 - 62836 = 212.5404
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 62836 - 62304.6489 = 531.3511
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 531.3511 / 212.5404 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 62304.6489
[entry_price] => 62836
[stop_loss] => 63069.79444
[rr_ratio] => 2.27
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 01:00:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 62304.6489
[entry_price] => 62836
[stop_loss] => 63091.04848
[rr_ratio] => 2.08
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 01:00:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.3] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 62304.6489
[entry_price] => 62836
[stop_loss] => 63112.30252
[rr_ratio] => 1.92
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 01:05:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.5] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 62304.6489
[entry_price] => 62836
[stop_loss] => 63154.8106
[rr_ratio] => 1.67
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 01:30:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.338%
(212.5404)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.251% | 0.7R | -0.232% | 0.7R | 1.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.251% | 0.7R | -0.232% | 0.7R | 1.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.251% | 0.7R | -0.614% | 1.8R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.251% | 0.7R | -1.151% | 3.4R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.251% | 0.7R | -1.351% | 4.0R | 0.2× | 143 |
| 24h | +0.251% | 0.7R | -2.776% | 8.2R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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