Short Trade on PUMP

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16 Aug 2026 at 19:10:04 hyperliquid

Short Trade on PUMP (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 94887.91 PUMP at 0.00268$ per unit. Take profit: 0.002609 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.00276 (3.14 %)

PUMP SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 16 Aug 2026 19:10 → 21:35 · 2 hours

Position

Entry 0.002676$

Qty 94887.9137 PUMP

Size 253.9201$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)

Risk Setup

TP 0.002609 (+2.5%)

TP $ 6.36$

SL 0.00276 (-3.14%)

SL $ 7.97$

RR 0.8

Status loss PnL -3.14% / -7.97$ MAE -8.56% MFE +0.60% 0.2R expires 17 Aug 01:10

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 71676)

#21 / 37 OUT

seuil : top 15
score du 16/08/2026 19:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.2906

Quality Score

0.551

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

97 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

2 OK

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

20.1M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
16/08 19:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#21 / 37 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

97 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

-4

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-3 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

3.14 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#21 / 37 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

97 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-3 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

3.14 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	1.35×ATR
4h	near	-1.88×ATR
1d	clear	6.67×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
4h	↓ down	mid	OK
1d	↑ up	late	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : bear_low_vol rules_regime : bear_low_confirmed rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 2	ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 16/08 19:00 Score : +1

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : bear_low_vol

rules_regime : bear_low_confirmed

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 2

ml_regime : bear_high

Strategic (1D) : range_high (0)

Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1)

Tactical (1H) : range_low (0)

16/08 19:00

Score : +1

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 15/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 16/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 16/08 18:00 Score : -4 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

15/08 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

16/08 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

16/08 18:00

Score : -4 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 1578

range compression range_breakdown_risk

Strategic	range	compression	—	0
Operational	bear	expansion	—	+1
Tactical	range	compression	—	0
Micro	—		—

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 0.87

Transition risk : 0.13

Score contribution (this trade) +1

Market Breadth

Breadth Score —

Impulse : —

% Positive (universe)

15m	—
1h	—
4h	—
24h	—

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	—	—
4h	—	—
24h	—	—

Dispersion : —

Universe : —

Regime confidence : 0.67

Snapshot évalué : 16/08 19:00 · env range_with_pressure

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 16/08/2026 19:00

Score brut

0.5506

Score SMA

0.4758

Rank

#21 / 37

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2906

Rank Norm SMA

0.3237

Calculé le

16/08/2026 19:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3294	r1h: -0.409% · r4h: -1.797% · r1d: -2.62% · r3d: -8.35% · ema21_slope: -0.1033% · dist_ema21: -2.296%
Force Relative	25%	0.3813	rs_1h: -0.187% · rs_4h: -1.225% · rs_1d: -2.07% · rs_3d: -7.14% · beta_24h: 2.846
Volume	20%	0.8793	rvol_20: 3.13× · zscore_50: 1.919 · trend: 63.51%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5371	ADX: 18.7 (weak) · Chop: 52.9 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.337% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -3.139% (0.0001)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.561%	0.2R	-0.224%	0.1R	2.5×	12
2h	+0.598%	0.2R	-2.055%	0.7R	0.3×	24
4h	+0.598%	0.2R	-5.755%	1.8R	0.1×	48
6h ★	+0.598%	0.2R	-8.558%	2.7R	0.1×	72
8h	+0.598%	0.2R	-12.108%	3.9R	0.1×	96
12h	+0.598%	0.2R	-12.108%	3.9R	0.1×	144

computed 1 month ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.33

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	fading	expansion_after_compression	bull_high	63%	noisy_chop 43%	late	—	near -0.3ATR	0.57	bear_high	-4.94%	+0.99	15/08 20:00
4h	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	bull_high	55%	noisy_chop 37%	mid	near -1.9ATR	—	0.30	bear_medium	-1.47%	-0.60	16/08 16:00
1h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	normal	bear_high_confirmed	54%	noisy_chop 41%	late	—	—	0.25	bear_low_confirmed	-0.76%	-0.26	16/08 18:00
15m	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	balanced	expansion	bear_medium_confirmed	55%	noisy_chop 43%	late	—	—	0.19	range_low	-0.43%	-0.18	16/08 18:45
5m	—

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↑ up	late	33b	—	6.799×ATR	p89	+1.252×ATR	p74
4h	↓ down	mid	17b	—	3.637×ATR	p61	-1.316×ATR	p74
1h	↓ down	late	1b	—	2.932×ATR	p68	-2.118×ATR	p96
15m	↓ down	late	6b	—	5.475×ATR	p100	-2.278×ATR	p97

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 0.00276031
tp_price: 0.0026091
atr: 3.372E-5
expires_at: 2026-08-17T05:10:04+00:00

Details

rank: 37
total: 38
score: 0.3294
delta_2h: -0.1373
extension_atr: -1.72
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.2906
confidence: 0.973

Signal Details

Signaux confirmants (2)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	19:10	0.00267600	0%
2	20:10	0.00267600	0%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.002676	0.00276	0.002609	0.8	0.006219

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.002676
Stop Loss: 0.00276
Take Profit: 0.002609

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.00276 - 0.002676 = 8.4E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.002676 - 0.002609 = 6.7E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 6.7E-5 / 8.4E-5 = 0.7976

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
253.9201	100	94887.9137	3.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 8.4E-5

Taille de position = 8 / 8.4E-5 = 95238.1

Taille de position USD = 95238.1 x 0.002676 = 254.86

Donc, tu peux acheter 95238.1 avec un stoploss a 0.00276

Avec un position size USD de 254.86$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 95238.1 x 8.4E-5 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 95238.1 x 6.7E-5 = 6.38

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 6.38$

Résumé

Taille de position 95238.1
Taille de position USD 254.86
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 6.38
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.7976

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	6.36 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
3.14 %	7.97 $

PNL	PNL %
-7.97 $	-3.14

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-3.2885 %	104.76 %	7

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.002676	0.00276	0.002609	0.8	0.006219

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.002676
Stop Loss: 0.00276
Take Profit: 0.002609

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.00276 - 0.002676 = 8.4E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.002676 - 0.002609 = 6.7E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 6.7E-5 / 8.4E-5 = 0.7976

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.002609
            [entry_price] => 0.002676
            [stop_loss] => 0.0027684
            [rr_ratio] => 0.73
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-17 01:35:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.002609
            [entry_price] => 0.002676
            [stop_loss] => 0.0027768
            [rr_ratio] => 0.66
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-17 01:40:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.002609
            [entry_price] => 0.002676
            [stop_loss] => 0.0027852
            [rr_ratio] => 0.61
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-17 01:40:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.002609
            [entry_price] => 0.002676
            [stop_loss] => 0.002802
            [rr_ratio] => 0.53
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-17 01:40:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -3.139% (0.0001)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.561%	0.2R	-0.224%	0.1R	2.5×	12
2h	+0.598%	0.2R	-2.055%	0.7R	0.3×	24
4h	+0.598%	0.2R	-5.755%	1.8R	0.1×	48
6h ★	+0.598%	0.2R	-8.558%	2.7R	0.1×	72
8h	+0.598%	0.2R	-12.108%	3.9R	0.1×	96
12h	+0.598%	0.2R	-12.108%	3.9R	0.1×	144

computed 1 month ago

Commentaires

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