Short Trade on SOL

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16 Aug 2026 at 20:48:37 hyperliquid

Short Trade on SOL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 11.31 SOL at 74.665$ per unit. Take profit: 72.897 (2.37 %) & Stop Loss: 75.3722 (0.95 %)

SOL SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 16 Aug 2026 20:48 → 22:35 · 1 hour

Position

Entry 74.665$

Qty 11.3122 SOL

Size 844.6228$ (margin 100$) (leverage 8)

Risk Setup

TP 72.897 (+2.37%)

TP $ 20$

SL 75.3722 (-0.95%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -0.95% / -8$ MAE -1.75% MFE +0.23% 0.2R expires 17 Aug 08:48

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 71686)

#5 / 37 OUT

seuil : top 15
score du 16/08/2026 20:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.6493

Quality Score

0.616

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

71 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

1 OK

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

44.6M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
16/08 20:45

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#5 / 37 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

71 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

+7 OK

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

0.95 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#5 / 37 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

71 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

+7 OK

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

0.95 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	1.41×ATR
4h	clear	1.70×ATR
1d	clear	1.32×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↑ up	mid	OK
4h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
1d	↑ up	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low_confirmed rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1	ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 16/08 20:00 Score : +1

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : bear_low_confirmed

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 1

ml_regime : bear_high

Strategic (1D) : range_high (0)

Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1)

Tactical (1H) : range_low (0)

16/08 20:00

Score : +1

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 16/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 16/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_low_confirmed (+1) 16/08 20:00 Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3)

16/08 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

16/08 20:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_low_confirmed (+1)

16/08 20:00

Score : +6 / ±6

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 16/08/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.6161

Score SMA

0.4867

Rank

#5 / 37

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.6493

Rank Norm SMA

0.3694

Calculé le

16/08/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.4485	r1h: 0.087% · r4h: -0.883% · r1d: -1.04% · r3d: -2.22% · ema21_slope: -0.0322% · dist_ema21: -0.750%
Force Relative	25%	0.4732	rs_1h: 0.116% · rs_4h: -0.558% · rs_1d: -0.76% · rs_3d: -1.27% · beta_24h: 2.226
Volume	20%	0.7830	rvol_20: 2.20× · zscore_50: 1.670 · trend: 120.26%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7109	ADX: 25.3 (trend) · Chop: 20.7 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 0.339% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -0.947% (0.7072)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.232%	0.2R	-0.876%	0.9R	0.3×	12
2h	+0.232%	0.2R	-0.991%	1.1R	0.2×	24
4h	+0.232%	0.2R	-1.222%	1.3R	0.2×	48
8h	+0.232%	0.2R	-1.749%	1.9R	0.1×	96
12h ★	+0.232%	0.2R	-1.749%	1.9R	0.1×	144
24h	+0.232%	0.2R	-2.043%	2.2R	0.1×	288

computed 1 month ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.33

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bear_high	58%	noisy_chop 30%	early	—	—	0.87	bear_high	-5.25%	+0.27	16/08 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bear_high	56%	noisy_chop 41%	late	—	—	0.80	bear_medium	-1.43%	-0.12	16/08 20:00
1h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	strong	explosive	volatile_reversal	bear_low_confirmed	37%	noisy_chop 44%	mid	—	—	0.72	range_low	-0.53%	-0.07	16/08 20:00
15m	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	expansion_after_compression	bear_low_confirmed	52%	noisy_chop 43%	early	—	—	—	range_low	-0.18%	-0.07	16/08 20:30
5m	—

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↑ up	early	16b	—	2.072×ATR	p0	-0.289×ATR	p19
4h	↓ down	late	27b	—	4.81×ATR	p77	-1.818×ATR	p89
1h	↑ up	mid	3b	—	2.245×ATR	p29	-1.462×ATR	p77
15m	↑ up	early	10b	—	2.315×ATR	p23	-0.829×ATR	p41

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

long_trend: -1
confidence: 0.7056
reason: down_bo width=2.55×ATR dur=47b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
stop_price: 75.37220329
tp_price: 72.89699177
atr:
score: 0.80555302454903
expires_at: 2026-08-17T12:48:30.290221
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.80555302454903

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : 0.1726
obi_top10 : 0.1726
micro_price : 74.54892954
spread_pct : 0.001341
mid_price : 74.5485
bid_wall_price :
bid_wall_size :
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price : 74.6
ask_wall_size : 93082.82
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 5
obi_top5_mean : 0.1655
obi_top5_std : 0.0083
pressure_side : bid
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 6889
aggregation_tick : 0.1
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
75.674
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
75.019
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
75.3465
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1786759200
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1786924800
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
2.5483
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
47
```
balance_zone_quality: tight
balance_zone_maturity: established
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.8056
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1786910400
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
75.019
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.8936
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
4
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
1.3773
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
6
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
4
```
regime : bear_high
atr_entry : 0.25703292

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.8936

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

1.3773

Signaux confirmants (4)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	20:48	74.66500000	0%
2	20:54	74.66500000	0%
3	21:00	74.66500000	0%
4	21:06	74.93600000	+0.363%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

↑ bid ws_rolling 5 snapshots 6889ms Confidence avant OB : 81% → 71%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.173

avg 0.166 ± 0.008

OBI Top 10 0.173

Microstructure

Mid Price

74.5485

Micro Price

74.5489

Spread

0.0013%

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price

74.6000

Size

93,082.82

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
74.665	75.3722	72.897	2.5	120.73

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 74.665
Stop Loss: 75.3722
Take Profit: 72.897

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 75.3722 - 74.665 = 0.7072
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 74.665 - 72.897 = 1.768
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 1.768 / 0.7072 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
844.6228	100	11.3122	8.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.7072

Taille de position = 8 / 0.7072 = 11.31

Taille de position USD = 11.31 x 74.665 = 844.46

Donc, tu peux acheter 11.31 avec un stoploss a 75.3722

Avec un position size USD de 844.46$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 11.31 x 0.7072 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 11.31 x 1.768 = 20

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$

Résumé

Taille de position 11.31
Taille de position USD 844.46
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 20
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.37 %	20 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
0.95 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-8 $	-0.95

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-0.9697 %	102.38 %	1

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
74.665	75.3722	72.897	2.5	120.73

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 74.665
Stop Loss: 75.3722
Take Profit: 72.897

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 75.3722 - 74.665 = 0.7072
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 74.665 - 72.897 = 1.768
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 1.768 / 0.7072 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 72.897
            [entry_price] => 74.665
            [stop_loss] => 75.44292
            [rr_ratio] => 2.27
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-17 02:50:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 72.897
            [entry_price] => 74.665
            [stop_loss] => 75.51364
            [rr_ratio] => 2.08
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-17 02:50:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 72.897
            [entry_price] => 74.665
            [stop_loss] => 75.58436
            [rr_ratio] => 1.92
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-17 06:40:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 72.897
            [entry_price] => 74.665
            [stop_loss] => 75.7258
            [rr_ratio] => 1.67
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-17 06:45:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -0.947% (0.7072)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.232%	0.2R	-0.876%	0.9R	0.3×	12
2h	+0.232%	0.2R	-0.991%	1.1R	0.2×	24
4h	+0.232%	0.2R	-1.222%	1.3R	0.2×	48
8h	+0.232%	0.2R	-1.749%	1.9R	0.1×	96
12h ★	+0.232%	0.2R	-1.749%	1.9R	0.1×	144
24h	+0.232%	0.2R	-2.043%	2.2R	0.1×	288

computed 1 month ago

Commentaires

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