Short Trade on XRP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 2069.84 XRP at 0.996$ per unit. Take profit: 0.9867 (0.97 %) & Stop Loss: 1.0003 (0.39 %)
17 Aug 2026 at 06:08:09
hyperliquid
XRP
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
17 Aug 2026 06:08
→ 06:35
· 26 minutes
Position
Entry 0.9964$
Qty 2069.8416 XRP
Size 2062.3695$ (margin 100$) (leverage 21)
Risk Setup
TP 0.9867 (+0.97%)
TP $ 20.08$
SL 1.0003 (-0.39%)
SL $ 8.07$
RR 2.49
Status
loss
PnL
-0.39%
/ -8.07$
MAE -1.18%
MFE +0.01%
0.0R
expires
17 Aug 18:08
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 72113)
#26 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 17/08/2026 06:00
score du 17/08/2026 06:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5450
Quality Score
0.525
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
22.0M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
17/08 06:00
17/08 06:00
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#26 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+5
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.39 %
TIGHT
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#26 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.39 %
TIGHT
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 0.69×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 0.72×ATR |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 17/08 06:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 16/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 17/08 04:00 Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 17/08 05:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1589
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.87
Transition risk :
0.13
Score contribution (this trade)
0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.92
Snapshot évalué :
17/08 06:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
17/08/2026 06:00
Score brut
0.5245
Score SMA
0.5348
Rank
#26
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5450
Rank Norm SMA
0.5317
Calculé le
17/08/2026 06:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4760 | r1h: -0.077% · r4h: -0.376% · r1d: -0.29% · r3d: -0.61% · ema21_slope: -0.0034% · dist_ema21: -0.262% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4798 | rs_1h: 0.046% · rs_4h: -0.036% · rs_1d: -0.78% · rs_3d: -1.40% · beta_24h: 1.237 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3212 | rvol_20: 0.62× · zscore_50: -0.075 · trend: 30.68% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6500 | ADX: 18.0 (weak) · Chop: 35.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.387% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.391%
(0.0039)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.010% | 0.0R | -0.552% | 1.4R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.010% | 0.0R | -0.552% | 1.4R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.010% | 0.0R | -0.693% | 1.8R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.010% | 0.0R | -1.184% | 3.0R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.010% | 0.0R | -1.184% | 3.0R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.794% | 2.0R | -1.184% | 3.0R | 0.7× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.03
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | — | — | 0.86 | bear_high | -4.20% | -0.53 | 16/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | — | — | 0.78 | range_medium | -0.62% | -0.12 | 17/08 04:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | range_low |
34%
|
noisy_chop 42% | early | — | — | 0.61 | range_low | +0.02% | -0.06 | 17/08 05:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | compression | range_low |
39%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late | — | — | — | range_low | +0.10% | +0.00 | 17/08 05:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 27b | — | 6.164×ATR | p90 | -1.371×ATR | p78 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 2b | — | 1.354×ATR | p0 | -0.751×ATR | p49 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 3b | — | 2.557×ATR | p46 | -0.523×ATR | p31 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 11b | — | 5.443×ATR | p83 | -1.815×ATR | p90 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8196
- reason: down_bo width=1.28×ATR dur=30b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 1.00025503
- tp_price: 0.98672742
- atr:
- score: 0.81958807182255
- expires_at: 2026-08-17T22:08:01.181682
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.81958807182255
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.1213
- obi_top10 : -0.0442
- micro_price : 0.99664744
- spread_pct : 0.010034
- mid_price : 0.99665
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.1282
- obi_top5_std : 0.0039
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7016
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
1.0022
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.99759
- balance_zone_mid:
0.999895
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786856400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786960800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.2804
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
30
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8196
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786957200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.99759
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.3333
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
12
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
7
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.0036003 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
30
inside_close_ratio
0.7
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.3333
Signaux confirmants (5)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:08 | 0.99639000 | -0.001% |
| 2 | 06:13 | 0.99639000 | -0.001% |
| 3 | 06:19 | 0.99689000 | +0.049% |
| 4 | 06:25 | 0.99689000 | +0.049% |
| 5 | 06:31 | 0.99689000 | +0.049% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7016ms
Confidence avant OB :
82%
→
82%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.121
avg -0.128
± 0.004
OBI Top 10
-0.044
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.9967
Micro Price
0.9966
Spread
0.0100%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.9964 | 1.0003 | 0.9867 | 2.49 | 1.3656 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.9964
- Stop Loss: 1.0003
- Take Profit: 0.9867
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.0003 - 0.9964 = 0.0039
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.9964 - 0.9867 = 0.0096999999999999
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0096999999999999 / 0.0039 = 2.4872
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2062.3695 | 100 | 2069.8416 | 21.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0039
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0039 = 2051.28
Taille de position USD = 2051.28 x 0.9964 = 2043.9
Donc, tu peux acheter 2051.28 avec un stoploss a 1.0003
Avec un position size USD de 2043.9$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 2051.28 x 0.0039 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 2051.28 x 0.0096999999999999 = 19.9
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.9$
Résumé
- Taille de position 2051.28
- Taille de position USD 2043.9
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.9
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4872
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.97 % | 20.08 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.39 % | 8.07 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.07 $ | -0.39 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.4115 % | 105.14 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.9964 | 1.0003 | 0.9867 | 2.49 | 1.3656 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.9964
- Stop Loss: 1.0003
- Take Profit: 0.9867
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.0003 - 0.9964 = 0.0039
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.9964 - 0.9867 = 0.0096999999999999
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0096999999999999 / 0.0039 = 2.4872
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.9867
[entry_price] => 0.9964
[stop_loss] => 1.00069
[rr_ratio] => 2.26
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 10:40:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.9867
[entry_price] => 0.9964
[stop_loss] => 1.00108
[rr_ratio] => 2.07
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 10:40:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.3] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.9867
[entry_price] => 0.9964
[stop_loss] => 1.00147
[rr_ratio] => 1.91
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 10:40:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.5] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.9867
[entry_price] => 0.9964
[stop_loss] => 1.00225
[rr_ratio] => 1.66
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 13:35:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.391%
(0.0039)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.010% | 0.0R | -0.552% | 1.4R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.010% | 0.0R | -0.552% | 1.4R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.010% | 0.0R | -0.693% | 1.8R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.010% | 0.0R | -1.184% | 3.0R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.010% | 0.0R | -1.184% | 3.0R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.794% | 2.0R | -1.184% | 3.0R | 0.7× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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