Long Trade on XMR (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1.67 XMR at 416$ per unit. Take profit: 427.9947 (2.88 %) & Stop Loss: 411.2021 (1.15 %)
17 Aug 2026 at 18:11:05
hyperliquid
XMR
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
17 Aug 2026 18:11
→ 06:10
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 416$
Qty 1.6674 XMR
Size 693.64$ (margin 100$) (leverage 7)
Risk Setup
TP 427.9947 (+2.88%)
TP $ 20$
SL 411.2021 (-1.15%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-0.02%
/ -0.17$
MAE -1.00%
MFE +1.47%
1.3R
expires
18 Aug 06:10
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 72727)
#8 / 49
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 17/08/2026 18:00
score du 17/08/2026 18:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5391
Quality Score
0.582
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
1
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
7.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
17/08 18:02
17/08 18:02
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#8 / 49
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.15 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#8 / 49
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.15 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.36×ATR |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | -0.87×ATR |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bull_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : bull_low (+1) 17/08 18:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3) 16/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 17/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 17/08 17:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1601
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | bull | expansion | — | +1 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.87
Transition risk :
0.13
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.92
Snapshot évalué :
17/08 18:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
17/08/2026 18:00
Score brut
0.5820
Score SMA
0.5335
Rank
#8
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5391
Rank Norm SMA
0.5854
Calculé le
17/08/2026 18:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5837 | r1h: 0.490% · r4h: 0.495% · r1d: 1.50% · r3d: 4.42% · ema21_slope: -0.0005% · dist_ema21: 0.459% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5433 | rs_1h: 0.571% · rs_4h: 0.487% · rs_1d: -0.73% · rs_3d: 2.22% · beta_24h: 0.346 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4667 | rvol_20: 1.57× · zscore_50: 0.309 · trend: 6.71% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5180 | ADX: 14.5 (weak) · Chop: 50.9 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.804% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.153%
(4.7979)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.224% | 0.2R | -0.091% | 0.1R | 2.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.224% | 0.2R | -0.361% | 0.3R | 0.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.224% | 0.2R | -0.361% | 0.3R | 0.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.418% | 0.4R | -0.565% | 0.5R | 0.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.466% | 1.3R | -1.000% | 0.9R | 1.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.466% | 1.3R | -1.664% | 1.4R | 0.9× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.3
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bull_high |
72%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late | — | near -0.9ATR | 0.50 | bear_high | -3.14% | +0.95 | 16/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | pullback | bull_trend | moderate | fading | normal | bull_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | — | — | 0.27 | bull_medium_confirmed | +0.89% | +0.21 | 17/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | normal | bull_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early | — | near -0.4ATR | 0.11 | bull_low | +1.38% | -0.11 | 17/08 17:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | compression | range_low |
38%
|
noisy_chop 46% | mid | — | near -0.9ATR | 0.05 | bull_low | +0.95% | -0.04 | 17/08 17:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | late | 5b | — | 2.524×ATR | p5 | +1.829×ATR | p89 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 23b | — | 3.508×ATR | p48 | +0.88×ATR | p49 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 2b | — | 1.962×ATR | p32 | +0.538×ATR | p33 |
| 15m | ↑ up | mid | 8b | — | 4.748×ATR | p79 | +1.53×ATR | p77 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.8193
- reason: up_bo width=2.55×ATR dur=44b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 411.20212208
- tp_price: 427.99469481
- atr:
- score: 0.81933175558406
- expires_at: 2026-08-18T10:10:57.615601
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.81933175558406
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0361
- obi_top10 : 0.1023
- micro_price : 415.58090909
- spread_pct : 0.036098
- mid_price : 415.615
- bid_wall_price : 413
- bid_wall_size : 695.2
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 417
- ask_wall_size : 894.98
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0359
- obi_top5_std : 0.0002
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7015
- aggregation_tick : 1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
415.535
- balance_zone_bottom:
407.5
- balance_zone_mid:
411.5175
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786849200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1787004000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.5477
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
44
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8193
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1787000400
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
415.535
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6818
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.1474
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
13
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
3
- regime : bull_high
- atr_entry : 3.15377922 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
44
inside_close_ratio
0.6818
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.1474
Signaux confirmants (10)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:11 | 416.00000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 18:17 | 416.00000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 18:22 | 415.86000000 | -0.034% |
| 4 | 18:28 | 415.86000000 | -0.034% |
| 5 | 18:35 | 415.86000000 | -0.034% |
| 6 | 18:40 | 416.52000000 | +0.125% |
| 7 | 18:46 | 416.52000000 | +0.125% |
| 8 | 18:52 | 416.07000000 | +0.017% |
| 9 | 18:58 | 416.07000000 | +0.017% |
| 10 | 19:05 | 416.07000000 | +0.017% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7015ms
Confidence avant OB :
82%
→
82%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.036
avg 0.036
± 0.000
OBI Top 10
0.102
Microstructure
Mid Price
415.6150
Micro Price
415.5809
Spread
0.0361%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
413.0000
Size
695.20
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
417.0000
Size
894.98
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 416 | 411.2021 | 427.9947 | 2.5 | 563.56 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 416
- Stop Loss: 411.2021
- Take Profit: 427.9947
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 411.2021 - 416 = -4.7979
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 416 - 427.9947 = -11.9947
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -11.9947 / -4.7979 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 693.64 | 100 | 1.6674 | 7.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -4.7979
Taille de position = 8 / -4.7979 = -1.67
Taille de position USD = -1.67 x 416 = -694.72
Donc, tu peux acheter -1.67 avec un stoploss a 411.2021
Avec un position size USD de -694.72$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -1.67 x -4.7979 = 8.01
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8.01$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -1.67 x -11.9947 = 20.03
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.03$
Résumé
- Taille de position -1.67
- Taille de position USD -694.72
- Perte potentielle 8.01
- Gain potentiel 20.03
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.88 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.15 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -0.17 $ | -0.02 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1 % | 86.71 % | 21 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 416 | 411.2021 | 427.9947 | 2.5 | 563.56 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 416
- Stop Loss: 411.2021
- Take Profit: 427.9947
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 411.2021 - 416 = -4.7979
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 416 - 427.9947 = -11.9947
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -11.9947 / -4.7979 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.153%
(4.7979)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.224% | 0.2R | -0.091% | 0.1R | 2.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.224% | 0.2R | -0.361% | 0.3R | 0.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.224% | 0.2R | -0.361% | 0.3R | 0.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.418% | 0.4R | -0.565% | 0.5R | 0.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.466% | 1.3R | -1.000% | 0.9R | 1.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.466% | 1.3R | -1.664% | 1.4R | 0.9× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.