Short Trade on XPL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 4400.08 XPL at 0.0747$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07011 (6.09 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07648 (2.44 %)
17 Aug 2026 at 23:16:29
hyperliquid
XPL
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
17 Aug 2026 23:16
→ 03:05
· 3 hours
Position
Entry 0.07466$
Qty 4400.077 XPL
Size 328.5053$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 0.07011 (+6.09%)
TP $ 20.02$
SL 0.07648 (-2.44%)
SL $ 8.01$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-2.44%
/ -8.01$
MAE -3.81%
MFE +0.09%
0.0R
expires
18 Aug 11:16
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 73060)
#9 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 17/08/2026 23:00
score du 17/08/2026 23:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3543
Quality Score
0.589
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
17/08 23:02
17/08 23:02
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#9 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+3
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.44 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#9 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+3
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.44 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.41×ATR |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | clear | 0.61×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bull_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : bull_low (-1) 17/08 23:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 17/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 17/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 17/08 22:00 Score : +4 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1606
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | bull | expansion | — | -1 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.83
Transition risk :
0.17
Score contribution (this trade)
-1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.90
Snapshot évalué :
17/08 23:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.2764
Score SMA
—
Rank
#48
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
—
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3345 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.19% · r3d: 0.45% · ema21_slope: -0.2770% · dist_ema21: -1.648% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4444 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.36% · rs_3d: -1.66% · beta_24h: 1.294 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1182 | rvol_20: 0.00× · zscore_50: -1.227 · trend: -73.89% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.2701 | ADX: 12.9 (weak) · Chop: 79.9 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0078 | ATR%: 5.977% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
17/08/2026 23:00
Score brut
0.5886
Score SMA
0.5173
Rank
#9
/ 47
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3543
Rank Norm SMA
0.4904
Calculé le
17/08/2026 23:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4311 | r1h: -1.317% · r4h: -1.444% · r1d: -0.90% · r3d: -3.15% · ema21_slope: -0.0295% · dist_ema21: -1.757% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3615 | rs_1h: -1.190% · rs_4h: -1.187% · rs_1d: -2.02% · rs_3d: -4.66% · beta_24h: 1.017 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.9313 | rvol_20: 3.53× · zscore_50: 3.016 · trend: 48.45% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5509 | ADX: 12.5 (weak) · Chop: 44.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.090% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4419
Score SMA
—
Rank
#34
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
—
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4864 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.126% · r1d: 0.71% · r3d: -1.45% · ema21_slope: 0.0041% · dist_ema21: -0.441% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4292 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.295% · rs_1d: -0.84% · rs_3d: -3.58% · beta_24h: 0.670 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1021 | rvol_20: 0.02× · zscore_50: -1.489 · trend: -48.97% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4549 | ADX: 12.2 (weak) · Chop: 56.3 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.879% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.438%
(0.0018)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.812% | 0.3R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.812% | 0.3R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.086% | 0.0R | -2.798% | 1.2R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.086% | 0.0R | -3.773% | 1.6R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.086% | 0.0R | -3.812% | 1.6R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.086% | 0.0R | -3.812% | 1.6R | 0.0× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.02
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 37% | late | — | — | 0.51 | bear_high | -2.94% | -0.19 | 17/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | compression | range_high |
38%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | — | — | 0.41 | range_medium | +0.63% | -0.17 | 17/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | — | — | 0.37 | bull_low | +0.91% | -0.27 | 17/08 22:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | strong | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
50%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late | near -0.5ATR | — | 0.18 | range_low | +0.28% | -0.15 | 17/08 22:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 45b | — | 9.014×ATR | p91 | -0.325×ATR | p15 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 7b | — | 2.057×ATR | p9 | +0.268×ATR | p17 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 7b | — | 2.601×ATR | p40 | -1.08×ATR | p64 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 3b | — | 6.202×ATR | p93 | -3.142×ATR | p95 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8908
- reason: down_bo width=2.68×ATR dur=85b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.07647715
- tp_price: 0.07011362
- atr:
- score: 0.8908114138953
- expires_at: 2026-08-18T15:16:21.257666
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.8908114138953
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.023
- obi_top10 : 0.05
- micro_price : 0.07472406
- spread_pct : 0.026767
- mid_price : 0.07473
- bid_wall_price : 0.0734
- bid_wall_size : 1425868
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.0751
- ask_wall_size : 1177143
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0201
- obi_top5_std : 0.0021
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7085
- aggregation_tick : 0.0001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.077432
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.075368
- balance_zone_mid:
0.0764
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786719600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1787022000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.6752
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
85
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8908
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1787018400
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.075368
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7412
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.9189
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
20
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
7
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00077154 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
85
inside_close_ratio
0.7412
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.9189
Signaux confirmants (34)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23:16 | 0.07465900 | -0.001% |
| 2 | 23:22 | 0.07480300 | +0.192% |
| 3 | 23:27 | 0.07480300 | +0.192% |
| 4 | 23:34 | 0.07480300 | +0.192% |
| 5 | 23:40 | 0.07486300 | +0.272% |
| 6 | 23:46 | 0.07486300 | +0.272% |
| 7 | 23:52 | 0.07512100 | +0.617% |
| 8 | 23:58 | 0.07512100 | +0.617% |
| 9 | 00:05 | 0.07512100 | +0.617% |
| 10 | 00:10 | 0.07498300 | +0.433% |
| 11 | 00:16 | 0.07498300 | +0.433% |
| 12 | 00:22 | 0.07493800 | +0.372% |
| 13 | 00:28 | 0.07493800 | +0.372% |
| 14 | 00:34 | 0.07493800 | +0.372% |
| 15 | 00:40 | 0.07497400 | +0.421% |
| 16 | 00:46 | 0.07497400 | +0.421% |
| 17 | 00:52 | 0.07483800 | +0.238% |
| 18 | 00:58 | 0.07483800 | +0.238% |
| 19 | 01:05 | 0.07483800 | +0.238% |
| 20 | 01:10 | 0.07482800 | +0.225% |
| 21 | 01:16 | 0.07482800 | +0.225% |
| 22 | 01:22 | 0.07511600 | +0.611% |
| 23 | 01:28 | 0.07511600 | +0.611% |
| 24 | 01:34 | 0.07511600 | +0.611% |
| 25 | 01:40 | 0.07469800 | +0.051% |
| 26 | 01:46 | 0.07469800 | +0.051% |
| 27 | 01:52 | 0.07494000 | +0.375% |
| 28 | 01:57 | 0.07494000 | +0.375% |
| 29 | 02:05 | 0.07494000 | +0.375% |
| 30 | 02:10 | 0.07510300 | +0.593% |
| 31 | 02:16 | 0.07510300 | +0.593% |
| 32 | 02:22 | 0.07533600 | +0.905% |
| 33 | 02:28 | 0.07533600 | +0.905% |
| 34 | 02:34 | 0.07533600 | +0.905% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7085ms
Confidence avant OB :
89%
→
89%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.023
avg 0.020
± 0.002
OBI Top 10
0.050
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0747
Micro Price
0.0747
Spread
0.0268%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.0734
Size
1,425,868.00
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.0751
Size
1,177,143.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07466 | 0.07648 | 0.07011 | 2.5 | 0.07588 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07466
- Stop Loss: 0.07648
- Take Profit: 0.07011
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07648 - 0.07466 = 0.00182
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07466 - 0.07011 = 0.00455
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00455 / 0.00182 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 328.5053 | 100 | 4400.077 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00182
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00182 = 4395.6
Taille de position USD = 4395.6 x 0.07466 = 328.18
Donc, tu peux acheter 4395.6 avec un stoploss a 0.07648
Avec un position size USD de 328.18$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 4395.6 x 0.00182 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 4395.6 x 0.00455 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 4395.6
- Taille de position USD 328.18
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.09 % | 20.02 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.44 % | 8.01 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.01 $ | -2.44 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.4417 % | 100.16 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07466 | 0.07648 | 0.07011 | 2.5 | 0.07588 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07466
- Stop Loss: 0.07648
- Take Profit: 0.07011
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07648 - 0.07466 = 0.00182
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07466 - 0.07011 = 0.00455
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00455 / 0.00182 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.07011
[entry_price] => 0.07466
[stop_loss] => 0.076662
[rr_ratio] => 2.27
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-08-18 07:15:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.07011
[entry_price] => 0.07466
[stop_loss] => 0.076844
[rr_ratio] => 2.08
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-08-18 07:20:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.3] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.07011
[entry_price] => 0.07466
[stop_loss] => 0.077026
[rr_ratio] => 1.92
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
[closed_at] => 2026-08-18 07:55:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.5] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.07011
[entry_price] => 0.07466
[stop_loss] => 0.07739
[rr_ratio] => 1.67
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
[closed_at] => 2026-08-18 08:55:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.438%
(0.0018)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.812% | 0.3R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.812% | 0.3R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.086% | 0.0R | -2.798% | 1.2R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.086% | 0.0R | -3.773% | 1.6R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.086% | 0.0R | -3.812% | 1.6R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.086% | 0.0R | -3.812% | 1.6R | 0.0× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.