Short Trade on TAO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 2.17 TAO at 192.72$ per unit. Take profit: 183.5172 (4.78 %) & Stop Loss: 196.4011 (1.91 %)
18 Aug 2026 at 00:38:43
hyperliquid
TAO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
18 Aug 2026 00:38
→ 12:35
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 192.72$
Qty 2.1733 TAO
Size 418.8303$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 183.5172 (+4.78%)
TP $ 20$
SL 196.4011 (-1.91%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+0.23%
/ +0.98$
MAE -0.70%
MFE +0.71%
0.4R
expires
18 Aug 12:38
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 73096)
#32 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 18/08/2026 00:00
score du 18/08/2026 00:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2514
Quality Score
0.488
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
79 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
5.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
18/08 00:31
18/08 00:31
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#32 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
79 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.91 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#32 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
79 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.91 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.19×ATR |
| 4h | near | -1.13×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.01×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | late | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↑ up | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bull_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : bull_low (-1) 18/08 00:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 17/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 18/08 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 18/08 00:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3775
Score SMA
—
Rank
#31
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
—
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4284 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.17% · r3d: -0.42% · ema21_slope: 0.0688% · dist_ema21: -0.853% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4493 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.01% · rs_3d: -2.53% · beta_24h: 0.972 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.0402 | rvol_20: 0.01× · zscore_50: -2.397 · trend: -52.27% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3737 | ADX: 13.5 (weak) · Chop: 67.7 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.7254 | ATR%: 3.824% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
18/08/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.4877
Score SMA
0.5078
Rank
#32
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2514
Rank Norm SMA
0.4620
Calculé le
18/08/2026 00:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3938 | r1h: 0.820% · r4h: -2.372% · r1d: -2.84% · r3d: -3.59% · ema21_slope: -0.0572% · dist_ema21: -1.791% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3962 | rs_1h: 0.700% · rs_4h: -1.833% · rs_1d: -4.02% · rs_3d: -5.35% · beta_24h: 1.632 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3458 | rvol_20: 0.46× · zscore_50: -0.334 · trend: 76.01% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6756 | ADX: 21.1 (weak) · Chop: 30.6 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.835% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
18/08/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.4519
Score SMA
—
Rank
#27
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
—
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
18/08/2026 00:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4134 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.193% · r1d: -2.82% · r3d: -2.90% · ema21_slope: -0.0884% · dist_ema21: -2.412% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3965 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.273% · rs_1d: -3.77% · rs_3d: -4.56% · beta_24h: 1.306 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1645 | rvol_20: 0.14× · zscore_50: -1.416 · trend: -5.81% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6387 | ADX: 31.2 (trend) · Chop: 53.2 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.405% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.910%
(3.6811)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.618% | 0.3R | -0.052% | 0.0R | 11.9× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.618% | 0.3R | -0.701% | 0.4R | 0.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.618% | 0.3R | -0.701% | 0.4R | 0.9× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.618% | 0.3R | -0.701% | 0.4R | 0.9× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.706% | 0.4R | -0.701% | 0.4R | 1.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.375% | 0.7R | -0.701% | 0.4R | 2.0× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 1.2
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 29% | early | — | — | 0.61 | bear_high | -2.94% | +0.22 | 17/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late | near -1.1ATR | — | 0.66 | range_medium | +0.44% | -0.51 | 18/08 00:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
59%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | near -0.2ATR | — | 0.52 | bull_low | +0.91% | -0.28 | 18/08 00:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | fading | volatile_reversal | bear_low |
34%
|
noisy_chop 47% | mid | — | near -0.4ATR | 0.49 | range_low | +0.31% | -0.15 | 18/08 00:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early | 21b | — | 1.695×ATR | p0 | -0.243×ATR | p11 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 19b | — | 3.616×ATR | p72 | -1.974×ATR | p97 |
| 1h | ↑ up | late | 2b | — | 1.582×ATR | p3 | -1.833×ATR | p93 |
| 15m | ↑ up | mid | 7b | — | 3.629×ATR | p64 | -0.763×ATR | p52 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.785
- reason: down_bo width=2.05×ATR dur=38b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 196.40110885
- tp_price: 183.51722786
- atr:
- score: 0.7850055599179
- expires_at: 2026-08-18T16:38:36.065784
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.7850055599179
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0823
- obi_top10 : -0.0823
- micro_price : 192.54637736
- spread_pct : 0.020776
- mid_price : 192.55
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0802
- obi_top5_std : 0.0141
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7122
- aggregation_tick : 1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
197.89
- balance_zone_bottom:
194.59
- balance_zone_mid:
196.24
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786892400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1787025600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.0483
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
38
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.785
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1787014800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
194.59
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8684
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
3
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.1607
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
11
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
3
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 1.61108854 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
38
inside_close_ratio
0.8684
bars_since_breakout
3
distance_to_edge_atr
1.1607
Signaux confirmants (50)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:38 | 192.72000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 00:44 | 192.72000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 00:50 | 192.73000000 | +0.005% |
| 4 | 00:56 | 192.73000000 | +0.005% |
| 5 | 01:03 | 192.73000000 | +0.005% |
| 6 | 01:21 | 192.39000000 | -0.171% |
| 7 | 01:26 | 192.39000000 | -0.171% |
| 8 | 01:33 | 192.39000000 | -0.171% |
| 9 | 02:20 | 192.92000000 | +0.104% |
| 10 | 02:26 | 192.92000000 | +0.104% |
| 11 | 02:33 | 192.92000000 | +0.104% |
| 12 | 02:38 | 193.88000000 | +0.602% |
| 13 | 02:44 | 193.88000000 | +0.602% |
| 14 | 02:50 | 193.57000000 | +0.441% |
| 15 | 02:56 | 193.57000000 | +0.441% |
| 16 | 03:03 | 193.57000000 | +0.441% |
| 17 | 03:08 | 193.16000000 | +0.228% |
| 18 | 03:14 | 193.16000000 | +0.228% |
| 19 | 03:20 | 193.38000000 | +0.342% |
| 20 | 03:26 | 193.38000000 | +0.342% |
| 21 | 03:33 | 193.38000000 | +0.342% |
| 22 | 03:38 | 193.25000000 | +0.275% |
| 23 | 03:44 | 193.25000000 | +0.275% |
| 24 | 03:50 | 193.24000000 | +0.27% |
| 25 | 03:56 | 193.24000000 | +0.27% |
| 26 | 04:03 | 193.24000000 | +0.27% |
| 27 | 04:20 | 192.52000000 | -0.104% |
| 28 | 04:26 | 192.52000000 | -0.104% |
| 29 | 04:33 | 192.52000000 | -0.104% |
| 30 | 04:38 | 192.43000000 | -0.15% |
| 31 | 04:44 | 192.43000000 | -0.15% |
| 32 | 04:50 | 192.55000000 | -0.088% |
| 33 | 04:56 | 192.55000000 | -0.088% |
| 34 | 05:03 | 192.55000000 | -0.088% |
| 35 | 05:08 | 192.68000000 | -0.021% |
| 36 | 05:14 | 192.68000000 | -0.021% |
| 37 | 05:20 | 192.78000000 | +0.031% |
| 38 | 05:26 | 192.78000000 | +0.031% |
| 39 | 05:33 | 192.78000000 | +0.031% |
| 40 | 05:38 | 193.67000000 | +0.493% |
| 41 | 05:44 | 193.67000000 | +0.493% |
| 42 | 05:50 | 193.53000000 | +0.42% |
| 43 | 05:56 | 193.53000000 | +0.42% |
| 44 | 06:03 | 193.53000000 | +0.42% |
| 45 | 06:09 | 193.39000000 | +0.348% |
| 46 | 06:14 | 193.39000000 | +0.348% |
| 47 | 06:20 | 193.35000000 | +0.327% |
| 48 | 06:26 | 193.35000000 | +0.327% |
| 49 | 06:32 | 193.35000000 | +0.327% |
| 50 | 06:38 | 193.39000000 | +0.348% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7122ms
Confidence avant OB :
79%
→
79%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.082
avg -0.080
± 0.014
OBI Top 10
-0.082
Microstructure
Mid Price
192.5500
Micro Price
192.5464
Spread
0.0208%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 192.72 | 196.4011 | 183.5172 | 2.5 | 265.75 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 192.72
- Stop Loss: 196.4011
- Take Profit: 183.5172
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 196.4011 - 192.72 = 3.6811
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 192.72 - 183.5172 = 9.2028
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 9.2028 / 3.6811 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 418.8303 | 100 | 2.1733 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 3.6811
Taille de position = 8 / 3.6811 = 2.17
Taille de position USD = 2.17 x 192.72 = 418.2
Donc, tu peux acheter 2.17 avec un stoploss a 196.4011
Avec un position size USD de 418.2$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 2.17 x 3.6811 = 7.99
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.99$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 2.17 x 9.2028 = 19.97
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.97$
Résumé
- Taille de position 2.17
- Taille de position USD 418.2
- Perte potentielle 7.99
- Gain potentiel 19.97
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.78 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.91 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 0.98 $ | 0.23 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.7005 % | 36.67 % | 16 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 192.72 | 196.4011 | 183.5172 | 2.5 | 265.75 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 192.72
- Stop Loss: 196.4011
- Take Profit: 183.5172
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 196.4011 - 192.72 = 3.6811
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 192.72 - 183.5172 = 9.2028
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 9.2028 / 3.6811 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.910%
(3.6811)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.618% | 0.3R | -0.052% | 0.0R | 11.9× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.618% | 0.3R | -0.701% | 0.4R | 0.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.618% | 0.3R | -0.701% | 0.4R | 0.9× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.618% | 0.3R | -0.701% | 0.4R | 0.9× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.706% | 0.4R | -0.701% | 0.4R | 1.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.375% | 0.7R | -0.701% | 0.4R | 2.0× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
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