Web3Way Logo

Long Trade on XMR

Previous Trade Next Trade
18 Aug 2026 at 03:53:03 hyperliquid

Long Trade on XMR (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 1.11 XMR at 418.45$ per unit. Take profit: 436.4267 (4.3 %) & Stop Loss: 411.2593 (1.72 %)

XMR LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 18 Aug 2026 03:53 → 07:55 · 4 hours

Position

Entry 418.45$

Qty 1.1126 XMR

Size 465.548$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)

Risk Setup

TP 436.4267 (+4.3%)

TP $ 20$

SL 411.2593 (-1.72%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -1.72% / -8$ MAE -2.24% MFE +0.43% 0.3R expires 18 Aug 15:52

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 73307)
#6 / 47 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 18/08/2026 03:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.4423

Quality Score
0.628
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
84 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
2 OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
6.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
18/08 03:47

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 73307)
#6 / 47 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 18/08/2026 03:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.4423

Quality Score
0.628
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#6 / 47 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.72 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#6 / 47 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.72 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Supply Distance (ATR)
1h clear —
4h clear —
1d near -1.23×ATR
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up mid OK
4h ↑ up mid OK
1d ↑ up late BLOCKED
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
6.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
18/08 03:47
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3)

17/08 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

18/08 00:00

Tactical (1H) : bull_medium (+1)

18/08 03:00

Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 17/08/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.6237
Score SMA
—
Rank
#3 / 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
—
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.7831 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.34% · r3d: 0.82% · ema21_slope: 0.7900% · dist_ema21: 7.413%
Force Relative 25% 0.6376 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.17% · rs_3d: -1.29% · beta_24h: 0.370
Volume 20% 0.1459 rvol_20: 0.02× · zscore_50: -1.184 · trend: -31.40%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7583 ADX: 32.5 (trend) · Chop: 39.8 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.8648 ATR%: 3.406% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 18/08/2026 03:00
Score brut
0.6283
Score SMA
0.5317
Rank
#6 / 47
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4423
Rank Norm SMA
0.5756
Calculé le
18/08/2026 03:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.5971 r1h: 1.046% · r4h: 1.467% · r1d: 0.67% · r3d: 3.34% · ema21_slope: 0.0177% · dist_ema21: 1.374%
Force Relative 25% 0.5544 rs_1h: 0.736% · rs_4h: 0.953% · rs_1d: -0.53% · rs_3d: 1.27% · beta_24h: 0.444
Volume 20% 0.6700 rvol_20: 2.22× · zscore_50: 1.595 · trend: 16.54%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5107 ADX: 11.4 (weak) · Chop: 48.6 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 0.667% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 18/08/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.5006
Score SMA
—
Rank
#15 / 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
—
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
18/08/2026 00:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6095 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.005% · r1d: -0.84% · r3d: 2.06% · ema21_slope: 0.1511% · dist_ema21: 0.951%
Force Relative 25% 0.5114 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.084% · rs_1d: -1.79% · rs_3d: 0.40% · beta_24h: 0.428
Volume 20% 0.0942 rvol_20: 0.00× · zscore_50: -1.693 · trend: -44.73%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4738 ADX: 28.5 (trend) · Chop: 70.8 (range)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.438% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.718% (7.1907)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.258% 0.2R -0.239% 0.1R 1.1× 12
2h +0.258% 0.2R -1.580% 0.9R 0.2× 24
4h +0.258% 0.2R -1.704% 1.0R 0.2× 48
8h +0.258% 0.2R -2.239% 1.3R 0.1× 96
12h ★ +0.428% 0.3R -2.239% 1.3R 0.2× 144
24h +0.428% 0.3R -2.239% 1.3R 0.2× 288

computed 2 months ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.28
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind normal bull_high
72%
noisy_chop 44% late — near -1.2ATR 0.50 bear_high -3.25% +0.93 17/08 20:00
4h ↑ up late_trend bull_trend moderate fading compression bull_high
59%
noisy_chop 39% mid — — 0.27 range_medium +0.74% +0.29 18/08 00:00
1h ↑ up transition bearish_transition strong explosive compression bull_medium
57%
noisy_chop 39% mid — — 0.12 bull_low +1.01% -0.06 18/08 03:00
15m ↑ up range range moderate balanced expansion_after_compression bull_low
49%
noisy_chop 47% early — — 0.11 range_low +0.29% +0.07 18/08 03:45
5m —

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↑ up late 6b — 2.976×ATR p16 +1.988×ATR p92
4h ↑ up mid 25b — 4.318×ATR p72 +1.436×ATR p79
1h ↑ up mid 12b — 2.948×ATR p66 +0.963×ATR p60
15m ↓ down early 4b — 2.32×ATR p24 +0.991×ATR p49

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: 1
  2. confidence: 0.8415
  3. reason: up_bo width=2.80×ATR dur=46b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 411.25933446
  5. tp_price: 436.42666385
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.8415202226453
  8. expires_at: 2026-08-18T19:52:55.789368
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.8415202226453
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
    5. ¸
  5. market_structures
    6. ¸
  6. market_structure_v2
    7. ¸
  7. trend_analyzer_1h
    8. ¸
  8. orderbook_context
  9. obi_top5 : 0.0982
  10. obi_top10 : 0.1371
  11. micro_price : 417.39459459
  12. spread_pct : 0.071908
  13. mid_price : 417.35
  14. bid_wall_price : 412
  15. bid_wall_size : 794.97
  16. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  17. ask_wall_price :
  18. ask_wall_size :
  19. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  20. snapshots_count : 5
  21. obi_top5_mean : 0.0761
  22. obi_top5_std : 0.0124
  23. pressure_side : neutral
  24. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  25. collection_ms : 6878
  26. aggregation_tick : 1
  27. error :
    28. ¸
  28. strategy_details
  29. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  30. strategy_details
  31. balance_zone_top: 
    415.62
  32. balance_zone_bottom: 
    407.48
  33. balance_zone_mid: 
    411.55
  34. balance_zone_start_time: 
    1786874400
  35. balance_zone_end_time: 
    1787036400
  36. balance_zone_width_atr: 
    2.8005
  37. balance_zone_duration_bars: 
    46
  38. balance_zone_quality: tight
  39. balance_zone_maturity: established
  40. balance_zone_confidence: 
    0.8415
  41. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  42. balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
  43. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  44. balance_zone_breakout_time: 
    1787029200
  45. balance_zone_breakout_price: 
    415.62
  46. strategy_details
  47. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio: 
    0.6304
  48. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout: 
    2
  49. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr: 
    0.9736
  50. balance_metrics_has_retested: 
    1
  51. balance_metrics_retest_count: 
    1
  52. balance_metrics_touch_upper: 
    19
  53. balance_metrics_touch_lower: 
    2
  54. regime : bull_high
  55. atr_entry : 2.90665542
    56. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
46
inside_close_ratio
0.6304
bars_since_breakout
2
distance_to_edge_atr
0.9736

Signaux confirmants (3)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 03:53 418.45000000 0%
2 03:58 418.45000000 0%
3 04:05 418.45000000 0%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 6878ms Confidence avant OB : 84% → 84%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.098
avg 0.076 ± 0.012
OBI Top 10 0.137

Microstructure

Mid Price
417.3500
Micro Price
417.3946
Spread
0.0719%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
412.0000
Size
794.97

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
418.45 411.2593 436.4267 2.5 609.82
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 418.45
  • Stop Loss: 411.2593
  • Take Profit: 436.4267

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 411.2593 - 418.45 = -7.1907

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 418.45 - 436.4267 = -17.9767

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -17.9767 / -7.1907 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
465.548 100 1.1126 5.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss -7.1907

Taille de position = 8 / -7.1907 = -1.11

Taille de position USD = -1.11 x 418.45 = -464.48

Donc, tu peux acheter -1.11 avec un stoploss a 411.2593

Avec un position size USD de -464.48$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -1.11 x -7.1907 = 7.98

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.98$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -1.11 x -17.9767 = 19.95

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.95$

Résumé

  • Taille de position -1.11
  • Taille de position USD -464.48
  • Perte potentielle 7.98
  • Gain potentiel 19.95
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
4.3 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
1.72 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
-8 $ -1.72
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-1.8521 % 107.78 % 6
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
418.45 411.2593 436.4267 2.5 609.82
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 418.45
  • Stop Loss: 411.2593
  • Take Profit: 436.4267

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 411.2593 - 418.45 = -7.1907

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 418.45 - 436.4267 = -17.9767

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -17.9767 / -7.1907 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 436.4267
            [entry_price] => 418.45
            [stop_loss] => 410.54023
            [rr_ratio] => 2.27
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-18 12:05:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 436.4267
            [entry_price] => 418.45
            [stop_loss] => 409.82116
            [rr_ratio] => 2.08
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-18 13:25:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 436.4267
            [entry_price] => 418.45
            [stop_loss] => 409.10209
            [rr_ratio] => 1.92
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-18 13:35:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.718% (7.1907)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.258% 0.2R -0.239% 0.1R 1.1× 12
2h +0.258% 0.2R -1.580% 0.9R 0.2× 24
4h +0.258% 0.2R -1.704% 1.0R 0.2× 48
8h +0.258% 0.2R -2.239% 1.3R 0.1× 96
12h ★ +0.428% 0.3R -2.239% 1.3R 0.2× 144
24h +0.428% 0.3R -2.239% 1.3R 0.2× 288

computed 2 months ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.