Short Trade on TAO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 2.69 TAO at 193.39$ per unit. Take profit: 185.965 (3.84 %) & Stop Loss: 196.36 (1.54 %)
18 Aug 2026 at 06:44:23
hyperliquid
TAO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
18 Aug 2026 06:44
→ 18:40
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 193.39$
Qty 2.6936 TAO
Size 520.9191$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)
Risk Setup
TP 185.965 (+3.84%)
TP $ 20$
SL 196.36 (-1.54%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+1.22%
/ +6.33$
MAE -0.28%
MFE +1.49%
1.0R
expires
18 Aug 18:44
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 73480)
#18 / 48
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 18/08/2026 06:00
score du 18/08/2026 06:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4992
Quality Score
0.521
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
87 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
5.4M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
18/08 06:31
18/08 06:31
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 73480)
#18 / 48
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 18/08/2026 06:00
score du 18/08/2026 06:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4992
Quality Score
0.521
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#18 / 48
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
87 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.54 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#18 / 48
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
87 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.54 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 0.71×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.56×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.55×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
5.4M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
18/08 06:31
18/08 06:31
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 17/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 18/08 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1) 18/08 06:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3775
Score SMA
—
Rank
#31
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
—
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4284 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.17% · r3d: -0.42% · ema21_slope: 0.0688% · dist_ema21: -0.853% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4493 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.01% · rs_3d: -2.53% · beta_24h: 0.972 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.0402 | rvol_20: 0.01× · zscore_50: -2.397 · trend: -52.27% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3737 | ADX: 13.5 (weak) · Chop: 67.7 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.7254 | ATR%: 3.824% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
18/08/2026 06:00
Score brut
0.5207
Score SMA
0.5079
Rank
#18
/ 48
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4992
Rank Norm SMA
0.4613
Calculé le
18/08/2026 06:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4733 | r1h: 0.462% · r4h: 0.666% · r1d: -0.74% · r3d: -2.03% · ema21_slope: -0.1003% · dist_ema21: -0.371% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4862 | rs_1h: 0.658% · rs_4h: 0.784% · rs_1d: -2.07% · rs_3d: -3.80% · beta_24h: 1.325 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2518 | rvol_20: 0.66× · zscore_50: -0.299 · trend: -15.82% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7121 | ADX: 25.5 (trend) · Chop: 37.1 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.800% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
18/08/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.4527
Score SMA
0.4428
Rank
#32
/ 48
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3994
Rank Norm SMA
0.3079
Calculé le
18/08/2026 04:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4333 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.560% · r1d: -2.43% · r3d: -2.64% · ema21_slope: -0.0937% · dist_ema21: -2.162% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3887 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.416% · rs_1d: -3.18% · rs_3d: -4.35% · beta_24h: 1.334 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1363 | rvol_20: 0.08× · zscore_50: -1.446 · trend: -25.54% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6552 | ADX: 33.2 (trend) · Chop: 53.3 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.427% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.536%
(2.9700)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.016% | 0.0R | -0.279% | 0.2R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.920% | 0.6R | -0.279% | 0.2R | 3.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.050% | 0.7R | -0.279% | 0.2R | 3.8× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.050% | 0.7R | -0.279% | 0.2R | 3.8× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.489% | 1.0R | -0.279% | 0.2R | 5.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.560% | 1.7R | -0.279% | 0.2R | 9.2× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 4.53
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mature_trend | bear_trend | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 29% | early | — | — | 0.61 | bear_high | -3.25% | +0.09 | 17/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 37% | late | near -0.6ATR | — | 0.66 | range_medium | +0.47% | -0.43 | 18/08 04:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | bear_medium |
63%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early | — | — | 0.53 | bull_low | +0.81% | -0.21 | 18/08 06:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | compression | range_low |
38%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early | — | near -0.9ATR | 0.47 | range_low | +0.15% | +0.08 | 18/08 06:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 9b | — | 2.227×ATR | p0 | -0.621×ATR | p31 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 20b | — | 2.938×ATR | p51 | -1.176×ATR | p83 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 4b | — | 0.488×ATR | p0 | -0.487×ATR | p30 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 10b | — | 2.987×ATR | p46 | +0.522×ATR | p41 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8681
- reason: down_bo width=2.20×ATR dur=40b phase=extending|ob:ask_pressure(+0.07)
- stop_price: 196.35998116
- tp_price: 185.96504709
- atr:
- score: 0.79805702726843
- expires_at: 2026-08-18T22:44:15.460101
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.79805702726843
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.2091
- obi_top10 : -0.2091
- micro_price : 193.2699117
- spread_pct : 0.005174
- mid_price : 193.265
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.2116
- obi_top5_std : 0.0014
- pressure_side : ask
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7066
- aggregation_tick : 1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
197.835
- balance_zone_bottom:
194.59
- balance_zone_mid:
196.2125
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786906800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1787047200
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.2003
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
40
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7981
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: extending
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1787014800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
194.59
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.725
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
9
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.8137
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
9
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
3
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 1.47481163 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
40
inside_close_ratio
0.725
bars_since_breakout
9
distance_to_edge_atr
0.8137
Signaux confirmants (18)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:44 | 193.39000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 06:50 | 193.55000000 | +0.083% |
| 3 | 06:56 | 193.55000000 | +0.083% |
| 4 | 07:03 | 193.55000000 | +0.083% |
| 5 | 07:08 | 193.40000000 | +0.005% |
| 6 | 07:14 | 193.40000000 | +0.005% |
| 7 | 07:20 | 193.59000000 | +0.103% |
| 8 | 07:26 | 193.59000000 | +0.103% |
| 9 | 07:33 | 193.59000000 | +0.103% |
| 10 | 07:38 | 193.42000000 | +0.016% |
| 11 | 07:44 | 193.42000000 | +0.016% |
| 12 | 07:50 | 193.42000000 | +0.016% |
| 13 | 07:56 | 193.42000000 | +0.016% |
| 14 | 08:03 | 193.42000000 | +0.016% |
| 15 | 08:08 | 192.65000000 | -0.383% |
| 16 | 08:14 | 192.65000000 | -0.383% |
| 17 | 10:38 | 192.93000000 | -0.238% |
| 18 | 10:44 | 192.93000000 | -0.238% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↓ ask
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7066ms
Confidence avant OB :
80%
→
87%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.209
avg -0.212
± 0.001
OBI Top 10
-0.209
Microstructure
Mid Price
193.2650
Micro Price
193.2699
Spread
0.0052%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 193.39 | 196.36 | 185.965 | 2.5 | 248.76 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 193.39
- Stop Loss: 196.36
- Take Profit: 185.965
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 196.36 - 193.39 = 2.97
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 193.39 - 185.965 = 7.425
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 7.425 / 2.97 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 520.9191 | 100 | 2.6936 | 5.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 2.97
Taille de position = 8 / 2.97 = 2.69
Taille de position USD = 2.69 x 193.39 = 520.22
Donc, tu peux acheter 2.69 avec un stoploss a 196.36
Avec un position size USD de 520.22$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 2.69 x 2.97 = 7.99
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.99$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 2.69 x 7.425 = 19.97
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.97$
Résumé
- Taille de position 2.69
- Taille de position USD 520.22
- Perte potentielle 7.99
- Gain potentiel 19.97
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.84 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.54 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 6.33 $ | 1.22 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.2792 % | 18.18 % | 5 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 193.39 | 196.36 | 185.965 | 2.5 | 248.76 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 193.39
- Stop Loss: 196.36
- Take Profit: 185.965
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 196.36 - 193.39 = 2.97
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 193.39 - 185.965 = 7.425
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 7.425 / 2.97 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.536%
(2.9700)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.016% | 0.0R | -0.279% | 0.2R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.920% | 0.6R | -0.279% | 0.2R | 3.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.050% | 0.7R | -0.279% | 0.2R | 3.8× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.050% | 0.7R | -0.279% | 0.2R | 3.8× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.489% | 1.0R | -0.279% | 0.2R | 5.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.560% | 1.7R | -0.279% | 0.2R | 9.2× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
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