Short Trade on KAITO (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 459.93 KAITO at 0.332$ per unit. Take profit: 0.3239 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.3496 (5.24 %)
18 Aug 2026 at 16:10:04
hyperliquid
KAITO
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
18 Aug 2026 16:10
→ 22:05
· 5 hours
Position
Entry 0.3322$
Qty 459.9311 KAITO
Size 152.7937$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.3239 (+2.5%)
TP $ 3.82$
SL 0.3496 (-5.24%)
SL $ 8$
RR 0.48
Status
loss
PnL
-2.16%
/ -3.29$
MAE -3.04%
MFE +0.49%
0.1R
expires
18 Aug 22:10
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 74070)
#47 / 48
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 18/08/2026 16:00
score du 18/08/2026 16:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.0718
Quality Score
0.347
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
3.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
18/08 16:02
18/08 16:02
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 74070)
#47 / 48
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 18/08/2026 16:00
score du 18/08/2026 16:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.0718
Quality Score
0.347
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#47 / 48
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
5.24 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#47 / 48
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
5.24 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.03×ATR |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | -0.25×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
3.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
18/08 16:02
18/08 16:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 17/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 18/08 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 18/08 15:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1623
range
compression
range_breakout_attempt
| Strategic |
range
— |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
bull
— |
expansion
-1 |
| Tactical |
bull
— |
expansion
-1 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.83
Transition risk :
0.17
Score contribution (this trade)
-2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.65
Snapshot évalué :
18/08 16:00
· env range_with_momentum
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.1943
Score SMA
—
Rank
#49
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
—
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.0434 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -1.96% · r3d: -13.44% · ema21_slope: -3.3358% · dist_ema21: -48.447% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.1026 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.79% · rs_3d: -15.55% · beta_24h: -0.841 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1533 | rvol_20: 0.01× · zscore_50: -1.179 · trend: -26.09% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8329 | ADX: 39.9 (trend) · Chop: 36.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 29.309% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
18/08/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.3467
Score SMA
0.3872
Rank
#47
/ 48
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0718
Rank Norm SMA
0.0528
Calculé le
18/08/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2473 | r1h: -0.873% · r4h: -4.521% · r1d: -0.98% · r3d: -12.54% · ema21_slope: 0.0719% · dist_ema21: -0.872% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2360 | rs_1h: -0.742% · rs_4h: -4.256% · rs_1d: -1.56% · rs_3d: -14.99% · beta_24h: 1.840 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1823 | rvol_20: 0.34× · zscore_50: -0.265 · trend: -70.52% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5136 | ADX: 14.2 (weak) · Chop: 51.1 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.216% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
18/08/2026 12:00
Score brut
0.3272
Score SMA
0.2547
Rank
#48
/ 48
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0000
Rank Norm SMA
0.0000
Calculé le
18/08/2026 12:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3062 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.895% · r1d: 2.78% · r3d: -9.21% · ema21_slope: -0.9022% · dist_ema21: -4.089% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2828 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.850% · rs_1d: 1.98% · rs_3d: -11.90% · beta_24h: 2.631 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1359 | rvol_20: 0.01× · zscore_50: -0.962 · trend: -74.83% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7935 | ADX: 57.5 (trend) · Chop: 61.1 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.1842 | ATR%: 5.447% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -5.238%
(0.0174)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.385% | 0.1R | -0.756% | 0.1R | 0.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.488% | 0.1R | -1.481% | 0.3R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.488% | 0.1R | -2.318% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +0.488% | 0.1R | -3.037% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 72 |
| 8h | +0.488% | 0.1R | -6.105% | 1.2R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.488% | 0.1R | -6.105% | 1.2R | 0.1× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.33
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
choppy 57% | late | near -0.3ATR | — | 0.35 | bear_high | -2.51% | -1.00 | 17/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | fading | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 43% | early | — | — | -0.05 | bull_medium_confirmed | +1.34% | -0.94 | 18/08 12:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early | near 0.0ATR | — | 0.06 | bull_low | +1.38% | +0.13 | 18/08 15:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | range_high |
36%
|
noisy_chop 47% | late | near 0.3ATR | — | 0.19 | range_low | +0.51% | -0.32 | 18/08 15:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 20b | — | 10.769×ATR | p94 | -3.756×ATR | p99 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 7b | — | 2.04×ATR | p0 | -1.276×ATR | p56 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 3b | — | 2.22×ATR | p34 | -0.401×ATR | p11 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 14b | — | 5.149×ATR | p82 | -1.602×ATR | p68 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.34960391
- tp_price: 0.32390475
- atr: 0.00695757
- expires_at: 2026-08-19T02:10:04+00:00
Details
- rank: 47
- total: 48
- score: 0.2473
- delta_2h: -0.1184
- extension_atr: -0.57
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.0718
- confidence: 0.979
Signal Details
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3322 | 0.3496 | 0.3239 | 0.48 | 0.2491 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.3322
- Stop Loss: 0.3496
- Take Profit: 0.3239
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.3496 - 0.3322 = 0.0174
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.3322 - 0.3239 = 0.0083
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0083 / 0.0174 = 0.477
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152.7937 | 100 | 459.9311 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0174
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0174 = 459.77
Taille de position USD = 459.77 x 0.3322 = 152.74
Donc, tu peux acheter 459.77 avec un stoploss a 0.3496
Avec un position size USD de 152.74$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 459.77 x 0.0174 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 459.77 x 0.0083 = 3.82
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 3.82$
Résumé
- Taille de position 459.77
- Taille de position USD 152.74
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 3.82
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.477
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.5 % | 3.82 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 5.24 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -3.29 $ | -2.16 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -3.0373 % | 57.99 % | 5 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3322 | 0.3496 | 0.3239 | 0.48 | 0.2491 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.3322
- Stop Loss: 0.3496
- Take Profit: 0.3239
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.3496 - 0.3322 = 0.0174
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.3322 - 0.3239 = 0.0083
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0083 / 0.0174 = 0.477
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -5.238%
(0.0174)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.385% | 0.1R | -0.756% | 0.1R | 0.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.488% | 0.1R | -1.481% | 0.3R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.488% | 0.1R | -2.318% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +0.488% | 0.1R | -3.037% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 72 |
| 8h | +0.488% | 0.1R | -6.105% | 1.2R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.488% | 0.1R | -6.105% | 1.2R | 0.1× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.