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Short Trade on LIT

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28 Sep 2026 at 20:15:17 hyperliquid

Short Trade on LIT (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 46.59 LIT at 4.442$ per unit. Take profit: 4.3313 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 4.6141 (3.87 %)

LIT SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 28 Sep 2026 20:15 → 21:35 · 1 hour

Position

Entry 4.4424$

Qty 46.5862 LIT

Size 206.9546$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 4.3313 (+2.5%)

TP $ 5.18$

SL 4.6141 (-3.87%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.65

Status win PnL +2.50% / +5.18$ MAE -0.39% MFE +3.21% 0.8R expires 29 Sep 02:15

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 163321)
#81 / 89 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 28/09/2026 20:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.5282

Quality Score
0.402
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
91 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
50.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
28/09 20:03

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#81 / 89 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
91 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-2 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.87 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#81 / 89 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
91 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-2 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.87 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear 0.86×ATR
4h clear 0.90×ATR
1d clear 1.44×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down early OK
4h ↓ down late BLOCKED
1d ↑ up early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

26/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

28/09 12:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

28/09 18:00

Score : 0 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4313
bull developing bull_consolidation
Strategic bull expansion 0.90 -2
Operational range range 0.25 0
Tactical range transition 0.25 0
Micro range range 0.25
MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) -2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 64.8%
Impulse : +0.00
Participation : broad_risk_on
Leadership : alts
% Positive (universe)
15m 53.4%
1h 89.0%
4h 84.9%
24h 16.4%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 53.4% +0.01%
4h 75.3% +0.98%
24h 19.2% -4.61%
Dispersion : 0.184
Universe : 73 (≥ $2.0M)
Regime confidence : 0.75
Snapshot évalué : 28/09 20:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 27/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4663
Score SMA
0.5514
Rank
#72 / 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0779
Rank Norm SMA
0.2856
Calculé le
27/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6638 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -3.81% · r3d: -8.07% · ema21_slope: 1.0829% · dist_ema21: 1.099%
Force Relative 25% 0.4463 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -3.83% · rs_3d: -8.13% · beta_24h: 0.154
Volume 20% 0.1903 rvol_20: 0.40× · zscore_50: -0.883 · trend: -13.12%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7832 ADX: 48.6 (trend) · Chop: 53.2 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 9.480% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 28/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4019
Score SMA
0.5021
Rank
#81 / 89
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5282
Rank Norm SMA
0.3274
Calculé le
28/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3297 r1h: -0.061% · r4h: -0.686% · r1d: -4.58% · r3d: -8.33% · ema21_slope: -0.1314% · dist_ema21: -0.003%
Force Relative 25% 0.3769 rs_1h: -0.001% · rs_4h: -0.809% · rs_1d: -3.42% · rs_3d: -7.61% · beta_24h: 0.777
Volume 20% 0.1704 rvol_20: 0.16× · zscore_50: -0.948 · trend: -24.78%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5156 ADX: 27.9 (trend) · Chop: 65.0 (range)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.649% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 28/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3885
Score SMA
0.4420
Rank
#82 / 89
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2784
Rank Norm SMA
0.1736
Calculé le
28/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3127 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.686% · r1d: -4.58% · r3d: -8.33% · ema21_slope: -0.4424% · dist_ema21: -4.507%
Force Relative 25% 0.3607 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.809% · rs_1d: -3.42% · rs_3d: -7.61% · beta_24h: 3.610
Volume 20% 0.2696 rvol_20: 0.78× · zscore_50: -0.684 · trend: 2.29%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5424 ADX: 25.6 (trend) · Chop: 59.3 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.6838 ATR%: 3.949% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -3.865% (0.1717)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +2.080% 0.5R -0.394% 0.1R 5.3× 12
2h +2.530% 0.7R -0.394% 0.1R 6.4× 24
4h +2.530% 0.7R -0.394% 0.1R 6.4× 48
6h ★ +3.206% 0.8R -0.394% 0.1R 8.1× 72
8h +3.206% 0.8R -0.608% 0.2R 5.3× 96
12h +3.206% 0.8R -1.297% 0.3R 2.5× 144

computed 2 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 6.33
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind normal bull_high
57%
noisy_chop 33% early — near -0.4ATR — bull_high +14.58% -0.66 26/09 20:00
4h ↔ neutral range range moderate grind compression bear_high
52%
noisy_chop 38% late — — 0.33 bull_high +1.68% -0.72 28/09 12:00
1h ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate grind expansion bear_high
54%
noisy_chop 31% early — — 0.31 range_medium -0.51% -0.04 28/09 18:00
15m ↔ neutral range range moderate balanced compression range_high
40%
noisy_chop 40% early — — 0.58 range_low -0.14% +0.09 28/09 19:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Regime Tradability Move PAQ Momentum Near S/D RVOL Vol zone POC dist LVN VP ref Évalué à
1d
156541 		↑ up bull_high
57%
early 11b 0.1ATR noisy_chop 33% 0.727

—

near -0.4ATR

0.40 below_value -2.50 ATR — #88094 26/09 20:00
upd 27/09 20:27
4h
165091 		↔ neutral bear_high
52%
late 24b -1.4ATR noisy_chop 38% 0.539

—

—

2.39 below_value -5.02 ATR — #91863 28/09 12:00
upd 28/09 16:23
1h anchor
166378 		↔ neutral bear_high
54%
early 2b 0.0ATR noisy_chop 31% 0.601

—

—

0.63 below_value -4.53 ATR — #92497 28/09 18:00
upd 28/09 19:12
15m
166760 		↔ neutral range_high
40%
early 7b 0.6ATR noisy_chop 40% 0.620

—

—

0.17 below_value -4.80 ATR — #92677 28/09 19:45
upd 28/09 20:14
5m
Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↑ up early 11b — 1.469×ATR p0 +0.107×ATR p7
4h ↓ down late 24b — 5.865×ATR p92 -1.397×ATR p80
1h ↓ down early 2b — 0.868×ATR p0 +0.035×ATR p5
15m ↑ up early 7b — 2.547×ATR p31 +0.596×ATR p37

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 4.61412464
  2. tp_price: 4.33134
  3. atr: 0.06868986
  4. expires_at: 2026-09-29T06:15:17+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 82
  2. total: 90
  3. score: 0.3296
  4. delta_2h: -0.0451
  5. extension_atr: 0
  6. trend_phase:
  7. trend_direction:
  8. rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.5338
  9. confidence: 0.91

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
4.4424 4.6141 4.3313 0.65 3.7963
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 4.4424
  • Stop Loss: 4.6141
  • Take Profit: 4.3313

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 4.6141 - 4.4424 = 0.1717

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 4.4424 - 4.3313 = 0.1111

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1111 / 0.1717 = 0.6471

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
206.9546 100 46.5862 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.1717

Taille de position = 8 / 0.1717 = 46.59

Taille de position USD = 46.59 x 4.4424 = 206.97

Donc, tu peux acheter 46.59 avec un stoploss a 4.6141

Avec un position size USD de 206.97$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 46.59 x 0.1717 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 46.59 x 0.1111 = 5.18

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 5.18$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 46.59
  • Taille de position USD 206.97
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 5.18
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 0.6471

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
2.5 % 5.18 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
3.87 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
5.18 $ 2.50
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-0.3939 % 10.19 % 4
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
4.4424 4.6141 4.3313 0.65 3.7963
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 4.4424
  • Stop Loss: 4.6141
  • Take Profit: 4.3313

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 4.6141 - 4.4424 = 0.1717

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 4.4424 - 4.3313 = 0.1111

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1111 / 0.1717 = 0.6471

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
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Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -3.865% (0.1717)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +2.080% 0.5R -0.394% 0.1R 5.3× 12
2h +2.530% 0.7R -0.394% 0.1R 6.4× 24
4h +2.530% 0.7R -0.394% 0.1R 6.4× 48
6h ★ +3.206% 0.8R -0.394% 0.1R 8.1× 72
8h +3.206% 0.8R -0.608% 0.2R 5.3× 96
12h +3.206% 0.8R -1.297% 0.3R 2.5× 144

computed 2 days ago

Commentaires

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