Short Trade on XPL

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29 Sep 2026 at 09:15:06 hyperliquid

Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 1370.65 XPL at 0.1$ per unit. Take profit: 0.09798 (2.51 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1063 (5.77 %)

XPL SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 29 Sep 2026 09:15 → 12:45 · 3 hours

Position

Entry 0.1005$

Qty 1370.6493 XPL

Size 137.7365$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0.09798 (+2.51%)

TP $ 3.45$

SL 0.1063 (-5.77%)

SL $ 7.95$

RR 0.43

Status win PnL +2.51% / +3.45$ MAE -1.41% MFE +3.81% 0.7R expires 29 Sep 15:15

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 164876)

#81 / 84 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 29/09/2026 09:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.2117

Quality Score

0.396

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

95 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

44.2M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
29/09 09:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#81 / 84 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

95 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

-4

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-6 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.77 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#81 / 84 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

95 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-6 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.77 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	5.33×ATR
4h	clear	1.63×ATR
1d	clear	0.72×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↑ up	early	OK
4h	↓ down	mid	OK
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : -2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 27/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 29/09 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 29/09 08:00 Score : -4 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

27/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

29/09 04:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

29/09 08:00

Score : -4 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4365

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	-2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	transition	0.25	0
Micro	range	range	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 81.5%

Impulse : +0.00

Participation : broad_risk_on

Leadership : alts

% Positive (universe)

15m	44.6%
1h	41.5%
4h	87.7%
24h	63.1%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	38.5%	-0.03%
4h	69.2%	+1.26%
24h	47.7%	+0.63%

Dispersion : 0.183

Universe : 65 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 29/09 09:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 28/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.5036

Score SMA

0.6229

Rank

#72 / 89

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1932

Rank Norm SMA

0.4792

Calculé le

28/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.5956	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -7.45% · r3d: -14.33% · ema21_slope: 1.1285% · dist_ema21: 2.343%
Force Relative	25%	0.3596	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -6.29% · rs_3d: -13.61% · beta_24h: 1.406
Volume	20%	0.6607	rvol_20: 1.57× · zscore_50: 1.343 · trend: 134.12%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6859	ADX: 23.9 (weak) · Chop: 39.8 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 12.100% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 29/09/2026 09:00

Score brut

0.3962

Score SMA

0.5324

Rank

#81 / 84

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2117

Rank Norm SMA

0.3875

Calculé le

29/09/2026 09:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3168	r1h: -1.457% · r4h: -0.832% · r1d: -2.07% · r3d: -15.82% · ema21_slope: -0.0662% · dist_ema21: 0.555%
Force Relative	25%	0.2483	rs_1h: -1.450% · rs_4h: -1.400% · rs_1d: -2.97% · rs_3d: -16.15% · beta_24h: 4.072
Volume	20%	0.2835	rvol_20: 1.03× · zscore_50: -0.390 · trend: -31.19%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5583	ADX: 20.9 (weak) · Chop: 52.6 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.455% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 29/09/2026 08:00

Score brut

0.3994

Score SMA

0.5319

Rank

#84 / 86

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0294

Rank Norm SMA

0.3271

Calculé le

29/09/2026 08:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.4935	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.694% · r1d: 1.30% · r3d: -15.68% · ema21_slope: -0.4497% · dist_ema21: -1.826%
Force Relative	25%	0.4468	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.246% · rs_1d: -0.20% · rs_3d: -15.89% · beta_24h: 2.819
Volume	20%	0.2196	rvol_20: 0.65× · zscore_50: -0.560 · trend: -25.69%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5461	ADX: 22.5 (weak) · Chop: 55.7 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.1386	ATR%: 5.584% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -5.771% (0.0058)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+1.503%	0.3R	-0.587%	0.1R	2.6×	12
2h	+1.503%	0.3R	-1.413%	0.2R	1.1×	24
4h	+3.037%	0.5R	-1.413%	0.2R	2.2×	48
6h ★	+3.815%	0.7R	-1.413%	0.2R	2.7×	72
8h	+6.012%	1.0R	-1.413%	0.2R	4.3×	96
12h	+6.012%	1.0R	-1.413%	0.2R	4.3×	144

computed 29 minutes ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30

ML Pullback Score: 2.82

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	range	range	moderate	grind	expansion_after_compression	bull_high	56%	noisy_chop 40%	early	—	near -0.4ATR	0.54	bull_high	+12.96%	-0.56	27/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bull_high	49%	noisy_chop 44%	mid	—	—	0.49	bull_high	+2.69%	-0.72	29/09 04:00
1h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	balanced	compression	bear_high	61%	noisy_chop 40%	early	—	near -1.2ATR	0.42	range_medium	+0.52%	+0.06	29/09 08:00
15m	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	strong	balanced	normal	range_high	38%	noisy_chop 38%	early	near 0.0ATR	—	0.69	bull_low_confirmed	+0.74%	-0.13	29/09 08:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 167080	↑ up	bull_high	56%	early 3b 0.2ATR	noisy_chop 40%	0.695	— near -0.4ATR	1.57	below_value	-5.08 ATR	—	#92664	27/09 20:00 upd 28/09 20:30
4h 172460	↔ neutral	bull_high	49%	mid 18b -0.4ATR	noisy_chop 44%	0.562	— —	0.65	below_value	-4.83 ATR	—	#95040	29/09 04:00 upd 29/09 08:21
1h anchor 172851	↓ down	bear_high	61%	early 10b 0.2ATR	noisy_chop 40%	0.531	— near -1.2ATR	1.03	below_value	-4.67 ATR	—	#95294	29/09 08:00 upd 29/09 09:11
15m 172771	↔ neutral	range_high	38%	early 4b -0.1ATR	noisy_chop 38%	0.571	near 0.0ATR —	0.50	below_value	-4.83 ATR	—	#95040	29/09 08:45 upd 29/09 09:03
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	3b	—	2.302×ATR	p0	+0.179×ATR	p10
4h	↓ down	mid	18b	—	3.689×ATR	p65	-0.365×ATR	p26
1h	↑ up	early	10b	—	2.55×ATR	p46	+0.241×ATR	p15
15m	↓ down	early	4b	—	2.432×ATR	p29	-0.113×ATR	p8

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 0.10632665
tp_price: 0.09797775
atr: 0.00233466
expires_at: 2026-09-29T19:15:06+00:00

Details

rank: 82
total: 86
score: 0.3436
delta_2h: -0.0024
extension_atr: 0.38
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.2117
confidence: 0.953

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.1005	0.1063	0.09798	0.43	0.0965

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.1005
Stop Loss: 0.1063
Take Profit: 0.09798

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.1063 - 0.1005 = 0.0058
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.1005 - 0.09798 = 0.00252
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00252 / 0.0058 = 0.4345

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
137.7365	100	1370.6493	1.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.0058

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0058 = 1379.31

Taille de position USD = 1379.31 x 0.1005 = 138.62

Donc, tu peux acheter 1379.31 avec un stoploss a 0.1063

Avec un position size USD de 138.62$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1379.31 x 0.0058 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1379.31 x 0.00252 = 3.48

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 3.48$

Résumé

Taille de position 1379.31
Taille de position USD 138.62
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 3.48
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.4345

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.51 %	3.45 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
5.77 %	7.95 $

PNL	PNL %
3.45 $	2.51

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-1.4129 %	24.48 %	16

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.1005	0.1063	0.09798	0.43	0.0965

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.1005
Stop Loss: 0.1063
Take Profit: 0.09798

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.1063 - 0.1005 = 0.0058
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.1005 - 0.09798 = 0.00252
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00252 / 0.0058 = 0.4345

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -5.771% (0.0058)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+1.503%	0.3R	-0.587%	0.1R	2.6×	12
2h	+1.503%	0.3R	-1.413%	0.2R	1.1×	24
4h	+3.037%	0.5R	-1.413%	0.2R	2.2×	48
6h ★	+3.815%	0.7R	-1.413%	0.2R	2.7×	72
8h	+6.012%	1.0R	-1.413%	0.2R	4.3×	96
12h	+6.012%	1.0R	-1.413%	0.2R	4.3×	144

computed 29 minutes ago

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