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Short Trade on XPL

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29 Sep 2026 at 17:15:07 hyperliquid

Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_score)

With 1127.93 XPL at 0.0966$ per unit. Take profit: (100 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1037 (7.36 %)

XPL SHORT momentum_rotation_score hyperliquid 29 Sep 2026 17:15 → 20:15 · 2 hours

Position

Entry 0.09659$

Qty 1127.933 XPL

Size 108.9459$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0 (+100%)

TP $ 108.95$

SL 0.1037 (-7.36%)

SL $ 8.02$

RR

Status win PnL +1.68% / +1.83$ MAE -1.08% MFE +1.94% 0.3R expires 29 Sep 20:15 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 165706)
#48 / 80 OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/09/2026 17:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1899

Quality Score
0.501
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
99 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
35.0M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/09 17:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#48 / 80 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
99 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-2 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
7.36 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#48 / 80 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
99 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-2 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
7.36 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h near -0.74×ATR
4h clear 0.82×ATR
1d clear 0.72×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down early OK
4h ↓ down mid OK
1d ↓ down early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

27/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

29/09 12:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

29/09 16:00

Score : 0 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4397
bull developing bull_consolidation
Strategic bull expansion 0.90 -2
Operational range range 0.25 0
Tactical range range 0.25 0
Micro range compression 0.25
MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) -2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 63.0%
Impulse : +0.00
Participation : broad_risk_on
Leadership : alts
% Positive (universe)
15m 41.3%
1h 90.5%
4h 71.4%
24h 58.7%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 47.6% -0.01%
4h 63.5% +0.91%
24h 55.6% +0.31%
Dispersion : 0.216
Universe : 63 (≥ $2.0M)
Regime confidence : 0.75
Snapshot évalué : 29/09 17:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 28/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5036
Score SMA
0.6229
Rank
#72 / 89
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1932
Rank Norm SMA
0.4792
Calculé le
28/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.5956 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -7.45% · r3d: -14.33% · ema21_slope: 1.1285% · dist_ema21: 2.343%
Force Relative 25% 0.3596 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -6.29% · rs_3d: -13.61% · beta_24h: 1.406
Volume 20% 0.6607 rvol_20: 1.57× · zscore_50: 1.343 · trend: 134.12%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6859 ADX: 23.9 (weak) · Chop: 39.8 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 12.100% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 29/09/2026 17:00
Score brut
0.5009
Score SMA
0.5311
Rank
#48 / 80
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1899
Rank Norm SMA
0.3882
Calculé le
29/09/2026 17:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3229 r1h: 0.023% · r4h: -2.145% · r1d: -2.44% · r3d: -12.55% · ema21_slope: -0.0230% · dist_ema21: -2.200%
Force Relative 25% 0.3089 rs_1h: -0.004% · rs_4h: -2.810% · rs_1d: -2.55% · rs_3d: -12.07% · beta_24h: 2.661
Volume 20% 0.7837 rvol_20: 2.84× · zscore_50: 1.633 · trend: 24.83%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4990 ADX: 15.8 (weak) · Chop: 54.6 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.609% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 29/09/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.2913
Score SMA
0.5211
Rank
#82 / 82
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0244
Rank Norm SMA
0.3175
Calculé le
29/09/2026 16:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.2613 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -2.564% · r1d: -1.46% · r3d: -16.03% · ema21_slope: -0.4799% · dist_ema21: -5.620%
Force Relative 25% 0.3310 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -3.186% · rs_1d: -1.71% · rs_3d: -15.54% · beta_24h: 2.215
Volume 20% 0.1678 rvol_20: 0.44× · zscore_50: -0.876 · trend: -30.32%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5449 ADX: 22.2 (weak) · Chop: 55.5 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.1488 ATR%: 5.554% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -7.361% (0.0071)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.966% 0.1R -0.734% 0.1R 1.3× 12
2h +0.966% 0.1R -1.077% 0.2R 0.9× 24
3h ★ +1.941% 0.3R -1.077% 0.2R 1.8× 36
4h +2.093% 0.3R -1.077% 0.2R 1.9× 48
8h +2.093% 0.3R -1.471% 0.2R 1.4× 96
12h +2.591% 0.4R -1.471% 0.2R 1.8× 144

computed 3 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 1.39
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up range range moderate grind expansion_after_compression bull_high
56%
noisy_chop 40% early — near -0.4ATR 0.54 bull_high +12.96% -0.56 27/09 20:00
4h ↔ neutral range range moderate grind compression bear_high
48%
noisy_chop 47% mid — — 0.48 bull_high +1.72% -0.97 29/09 12:00
1h ↓ down range range moderate balanced normal bear_high
57%
noisy_chop 37% early near -0.7ATR near 0.2ATR 0.43 range_medium -0.27% -0.16 29/09 16:00
15m ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong explosive compression bear_high
61%
noisy_chop 42% mid — near 0.5ATR 0.71 range_low +0.00% -0.31 29/09 16:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Regime Tradability Move PAQ Momentum Near S/D RVOL Vol zone POC dist LVN VP ref Évalué à
1d
167080 		↑ up bull_high
56%
early 3b 0.2ATR noisy_chop 40% 0.695

—

near -0.4ATR

1.57 below_value -5.08 ATR — #92664 27/09 20:00
upd 28/09 20:30
4h
175864 		↔ neutral bear_high
48%
mid 20b -1.1ATR noisy_chop 47% 0.571

—

—

0.44 below_value -5.19 ATR — #96559 29/09 12:00
upd 29/09 16:20
1h anchor
176240 		↓ down bear_high
57%
early 9b -0.9ATR noisy_chop 37% 0.470

near -0.7ATR

near 0.2ATR

2.84 below_value -5.86 ATR — #96806 29/09 16:00
upd 29/09 17:11
15m
176160 		↓ down bear_high
61%
mid 3b -1.1ATR noisy_chop 42% 0.406

—

near 0.5ATR

0.39 below_value -5.19 ATR — #96559 29/09 16:45
upd 29/09 17:03
5m
Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down early 3b — 2.302×ATR p0 +0.179×ATR p10
4h ↓ down mid 20b — 4.793×ATR p78 -1.149×ATR p71
1h ↓ down early 9b — 2.339×ATR p34 -0.906×ATR p56
15m ↑ up mid 3b — 1.974×ATR p17 -1.107×ATR p67

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_score - SELL

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 0.10368162
  2. atr: 0.00236421
  3. expires_at: 2026-09-30T00:15:07+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 83
  2. total: 84
  3. score: 0.3259
  4. confidence: 0.988

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.09659 0.1037 0.09542
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.09659
  • Stop Loss: 0.1037
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.1037 - 0.09659 = 0.00711

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.09659 - = 0.09659

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.09659 / 0.00711 = 13.5851

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
108.9459 100 1127.933 1.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.00711

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00711 = 1125.18

Taille de position USD = 1125.18 x 0.09659 = 108.68

Donc, tu peux acheter 1125.18 avec un stoploss a 0.1037

Avec un position size USD de 108.68$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1125.18 x 0.00711 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1125.18 x 0.09659 = 108.68

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 108.68$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 1125.18
  • Taille de position USD 108.68
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 108.68
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 13.5851

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
100 % 108.95 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
7.36 % 8.02 $
PNL PNL %
1.83 $ 1.68
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-1.0767 % 14.63 % 11
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.09659 0.1037 0.09542
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.09659
  • Stop Loss: 0.1037
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.1037 - 0.09659 = 0.00711

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.09659 - = 0.09659

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.09659 / 0.00711 = 13.5851

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -7.361% (0.0071)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.966% 0.1R -0.734% 0.1R 1.3× 12
2h +0.966% 0.1R -1.077% 0.2R 0.9× 24
3h ★ +1.941% 0.3R -1.077% 0.2R 1.8× 36
4h +2.093% 0.3R -1.077% 0.2R 1.9× 48
8h +2.093% 0.3R -1.471% 0.2R 1.4× 96
12h +2.591% 0.4R -1.471% 0.2R 1.8× 144

computed 3 days ago

Commentaires

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