Short Trade on NIL

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29 Sep 2026 at 19:15:05 hyperliquid

Short Trade on NIL (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 1409.07 NIL at 0.08$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07796 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.08564 (7.1 %)

NIL SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 29 Sep 2026 19:15 → 19:55 · 39 minutes

Position

Entry 0.07996$

Qty 1409.0659 NIL

Size 112.6661$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0.07796 (+2.5%)

TP $ 2.82$

SL 0.08564 (-7.1%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.35

Status win PnL +2.50% / +2.82$ MAE -2.25% MFE +2.98% 0.4R expires 30 Sep 01:15

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 165860)

#78 / 78 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 29/09/2026 19:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.0817

Quality Score

0.340

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

100 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

4.7M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
29/09 19:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#78 / 78 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

100 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

-4

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-6 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

7.10 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#78 / 78 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

100 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-6 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

7.10 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	1.42×ATR
4h	clear	1.43×ATR
1d	clear	2.80×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↑ up	early	OK
4h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : -2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 27/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 29/09 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 29/09 18:00 Score : -4 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

27/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

29/09 12:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

29/09 18:00

Score : -4 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4405

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	-2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	range	0.25	0
Micro	range	compression	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 33.9%

Impulse : +0.00

Participation : mixed_dispersion

Leadership : mixed

% Positive (universe)

15m	36.5%
1h	23.8%
4h	30.2%
24h	54.0%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	34.9%	-0.01%
4h	36.5%	-0.62%
24h	54.0%	+0.21%

Dispersion : 0.143

Universe : 63 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 29/09 19:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 28/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.5750

Score SMA

0.6900

Rank

#49 / 89

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.4545

Rank Norm SMA

0.7101

Calculé le

28/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.7143	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -11.25% · r3d: -24.58% · ema21_slope: 6.8745% · dist_ema21: 17.106%
Force Relative	25%	0.5000	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -10.09% · rs_3d: -23.85% · beta_24h: 0.671
Volume	20%	0.5018	rvol_20: 0.96× · zscore_50: 0.420 · trend: 129.64%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.9021	ADX: 48.2 (trend) · Chop: 4.7 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 17.707% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 29/09/2026 19:00

Score brut

0.3400

Score SMA

0.4754

Rank

#78 / 78

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0817

Rank Norm SMA

0.2826

Calculé le

29/09/2026 19:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2169	r1h: -0.784% · r4h: -3.675% · r1d: -8.64% · r3d: -17.14% · ema21_slope: -0.2489% · dist_ema21: -2.641%
Force Relative	25%	0.1526	rs_1h: -0.915% · rs_4h: -3.618% · rs_1d: -8.71% · rs_3d: -16.33% · beta_24h: 4.730
Volume	20%	0.1615	rvol_20: 0.20× · zscore_50: -0.578 · trend: -54.62%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6341	ADX: 32.8 (trend) · Chop: 55.4 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.9979	ATR%: 3.006% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 29/09/2026 16:00

Score brut

0.3296

Score SMA

0.5250

Rank

#81 / 82

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0062

Rank Norm SMA

0.4046

Calculé le

29/09/2026 16:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3284	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 4.397% · r1d: -7.11% · r3d: -19.95% · ema21_slope: -1.1692% · dist_ema21: -10.988%
Force Relative	25%	0.3916	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 3.774% · rs_1d: -7.37% · rs_3d: -19.46% · beta_24h: 5.489
Volume	20%	0.2076	rvol_20: 0.68× · zscore_50: -0.651 · trend: -33.39%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6111	ADX: 26.2 (trend) · Chop: 51.5 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 9.384% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -7.104% (0.0057)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+2.740%	0.4R	-0.799%	0.1R	3.4×	12
2h	+2.977%	0.4R	-0.799%	0.1R	3.7×	24
4h	+2.977%	0.4R	-0.799%	0.1R	3.7×	48
6h ★	+2.977%	0.4R	-2.250%	0.3R	1.3×	72
8h	+2.977%	0.4R	-9.286%	1.3R	0.3×	96
12h	+2.977%	0.4R	-16.480%	2.3R	0.2×	144

computed 4 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30

ML Pullback Score: 3.27

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	volatile_reversal	bull_high	64%	noisy_chop 46%	early	—	—	0.31	bull_high	+12.96%	+1.00	27/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	range	range	strong	balanced	compression	bull_high	49%	noisy_chop 45%	late	—	—	0.13	bull_high	+1.72%	-0.99	29/09 12:00
1h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	fading	compression	bear_high	55%	noisy_chop 37%	early	—	near 0.3ATR	0.12	range_medium	-0.27%	-0.28	29/09 18:00
15m	↓ down	range	range	strong	balanced	compression	bear_high	62%	noisy_chop 43%	late	near -0.4ATR	—	0.42	range_low	-0.01%	+0.12	29/09 18:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 167062	↑ up	bull_high	64%	early 4b 0.7ATR	noisy_chop 46%	0.824	— —	0.96	below_value	-9.44 ATR	—	#92660	27/09 20:00 upd 28/09 20:29
4h 175852	↔ neutral	bull_high	49%	late 25b -1.7ATR	noisy_chop 45%	0.550	— —	0.68	below_value	-13.00 ATR	—	#96555	29/09 12:00 upd 29/09 16:19
1h anchor 177011	↓ down	bear_high	55%	early 7b -0.9ATR	noisy_chop 37%	0.616	— near 0.3ATR	0.20	below_value	-15.02 ATR	—	#97122	29/09 18:00 upd 29/09 19:11
15m 176934	↓ down	bear_high	62%	late 17b -1.5ATR	noisy_chop 43%	0.385	near -0.4ATR —	0.14	below_value	-14.02 ATR	—	#96962	29/09 18:45 upd 29/09 19:03
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	4b	—	3.947×ATR	p42	+0.673×ATR	p49
4h	↓ down	late	25b	—	7.686×ATR	p89	-1.661×ATR	p73
1h	↑ up	early	7b	—	1.194×ATR	p7	-0.882×ATR	p36
15m	↓ down	late	17b	—	4.339×ATR	p80	-1.491×ATR	p75

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 0.08563552
tp_price: 0.07795905
atr: 0.00227101
expires_at: 2026-09-30T05:15:05+00:00

Details

rank: 80
total: 80
score: 0.2323
delta_2h: -0.1106
extension_atr: -0.8
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.0817
confidence: 1

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.07996	0.08564	0.07796	0.35	0.0887

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.07996
Stop Loss: 0.08564
Take Profit: 0.07796

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.08564 - 0.07996 = 0.00568
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.07996 - 0.07796 = 0.002
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.002 / 0.00568 = 0.3521

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
112.6661	100	1409.0659	1.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.00568

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00568 = 1408.45

Taille de position USD = 1408.45 x 0.07996 = 112.62

Donc, tu peux acheter 1408.45 avec un stoploss a 0.08564

Avec un position size USD de 112.62$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1408.45 x 0.00568 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1408.45 x 0.002 = 2.82

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 2.82$

Résumé

Taille de position 1408.45
Taille de position USD 112.62
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 2.82
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.3521

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	2.82 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
7.1 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
2.82 $	2.50

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-0.7991 %	11.25 %	1

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.07996	0.08564	0.07796	0.35	0.0887

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.07996
Stop Loss: 0.08564
Take Profit: 0.07796

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.08564 - 0.07996 = 0.00568
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.07996 - 0.07796 = 0.002
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.002 / 0.00568 = 0.3521

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -7.104% (0.0057)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+2.740%	0.4R	-0.799%	0.1R	3.4×	12
2h	+2.977%	0.4R	-0.799%	0.1R	3.7×	24
4h	+2.977%	0.4R	-0.799%	0.1R	3.7×	48
6h ★	+2.977%	0.4R	-2.250%	0.3R	1.3×	72
8h	+2.977%	0.4R	-9.286%	1.3R	0.3×	96
12h	+2.977%	0.4R	-16.480%	2.3R	0.2×	144

computed 4 days ago

Commentaires

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