Short Trade on XPL

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29 Sep 2026 at 23:15:15 hyperliquid

Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 1497.32 XPL at 0.0961$ per unit. Take profit: 0.09371 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1015 (5.61 %)

XPL SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 29 Sep 2026 23:15 → 05:15 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 0.09611$

Qty 1497.317 XPL

Size 143.9086$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0.09371 (+2.5%)

TP $ 3.59$

SL 0.1015 (-5.61%)

SL $ 8.07$

RR 0.45

Status loss PnL -0.82% / -1.18$ MAE -1.81% MFE +2.10% 0.4R expires 30 Sep 05:15 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 166366)

#79 / 82 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 29/09/2026 23:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1103

Quality Score

0.400

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

93 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

31.1M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
29/09 23:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#79 / 82 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

93 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.61 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#79 / 82 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

93 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.61 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	near	-0.95×ATR
4h	clear	0.67×ATR
1d	clear	0.51×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↑ up	early	OK
4h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : -2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 28/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 29/09 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 29/09 22:00 Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

28/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

29/09 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

29/09 22:00

Score : 0 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4421

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	-2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	range	0.25	0
Micro	range	compression	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 40.9%

Impulse : +0.00

Participation : mixed_dispersion

Leadership : mixed

% Positive (universe)

15m	59.7%
1h	12.9%
4h	35.5%
24h	75.8%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	53.2%	+0.04%
4h	51.6%	-0.28%
24h	71.0%	+2.21%

Dispersion : 0.124

Universe : 62 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 29/09 23:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4974

Score SMA

0.6233

Rank

#65 / 83

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2195

Rank Norm SMA

0.4935

Calculé le

29/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6287	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -2.58% · r3d: -14.17% · ema21_slope: 1.0559% · dist_ema21: -0.266%
Force Relative	25%	0.3953	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -2.77% · rs_3d: -13.23% · beta_24h: 1.406
Volume	20%	0.5490	rvol_20: 1.13× · zscore_50: 0.721 · trend: 100.05%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6679	ADX: 23.1 (weak) · Chop: 41.2 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 12.192% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 29/09/2026 23:00

Score brut

0.3995

Score SMA

0.5278

Rank

#79 / 82

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1103

Rank Norm SMA

0.3845

Calculé le

29/09/2026 23:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3454	r1h: -0.913% · r4h: -0.141% · r1d: 2.10% · r3d: -12.26% · ema21_slope: -0.1542% · dist_ema21: -1.506%
Force Relative	25%	0.3963	rs_1h: -0.840% · rs_4h: 0.133% · rs_1d: 1.60% · rs_3d: -10.97% · beta_24h: 2.297
Volume	20%	0.1492	rvol_20: 0.24× · zscore_50: -0.763 · trend: -61.09%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4824	ADX: 16.9 (weak) · Chop: 57.8 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.352% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.3122

Score SMA

0.5141

Rank

#83 / 84

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0060

Rank Norm SMA

0.3113

Calculé le

29/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2860	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.978% · r1d: -2.58% · r3d: -14.17% · ema21_slope: -0.5102% · dist_ema21: -5.984%
Force Relative	25%	0.3475	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.043% · rs_1d: -2.77% · rs_3d: -13.23% · beta_24h: 2.174
Volume	20%	0.2405	rvol_20: 0.75× · zscore_50: -0.447 · trend: -27.59%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4860	ADX: 22.6 (weak) · Chop: 63.2 (range)
Volatilité	10%	0.1853	ATR%: 5.444% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -5.608% (0.0054)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.868%	0.2R	-0.335%	0.1R	2.6×	12
2h	+0.868%	0.2R	-0.925%	0.2R	0.9×	24
4h	+2.105%	0.4R	-1.809%	0.3R	1.2×	48
6h ★	+2.105%	0.4R	-1.809%	0.3R	1.2×	72
8h	+2.105%	0.4R	-2.675%	0.5R	0.8×	96
12h	+3.648%	0.7R	-4.287%	0.8R	0.9×	144

computed 6 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 1.22

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	expansion_after_compression	bull_high	60%	noisy_chop 41%	early	—	near -0.2ATR	0.54	bull_high	+12.90%	+0.05	28/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bear_high	47%	noisy_chop 46%	late	—	—	0.48	bull_high	+1.75%	-0.96	29/09 16:00
1h	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bear_high	54%	noisy_chop 36%	early	near -1.0ATR	near 0.3ATR	0.43	range_medium	-0.51%	-0.34	29/09 22:00
15m	↓ down	range	range	moderate	balanced	compression	bear_high	59%	noisy_chop 39%	early	near 0.1ATR	—	0.68	range_low	-0.23%	-0.02	29/09 22:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 177653	↔ neutral	bull_high	60%	early 4b 0.0ATR	noisy_chop 41%	0.674	— near -0.2ATR	1.13	below_value	-6.68 ATR	—	#97294	28/09 20:00 upd 29/09 20:29
4h 177553	↔ neutral	bear_high	47%	late 21b -1.3ATR	noisy_chop 46%	0.572	— —	0.75	below_value	-6.68 ATR	—	#97294	29/09 16:00 upd 29/09 20:23
1h anchor 178794	↓ down	bear_high	54%	early 6b -0.6ATR	noisy_chop 36%	0.519	near -1.0ATR near 0.3ATR	0.24	below_value	-6.65 ATR	—	#97876	29/09 22:00 upd 29/09 23:11
15m 178714	↓ down	bear_high	59%	early 4b -0.2ATR	noisy_chop 39%	0.437	near 0.1ATR —	0.87	below_value	-6.15 ATR	—	#97713	29/09 22:45 upd 29/09 23:03
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	4b	—	2.562×ATR	p8	-0.02×ATR	p2
4h	↓ down	late	21b	—	5.119×ATR	p80	-1.346×ATR	p80
1h	↑ up	early	6b	—	0.896×ATR	p0	-0.648×ATR	p42
15m	↓ down	early	4b	—	1.522×ATR	p0	-0.244×ATR	p18

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 0.10145389
tp_price: 0.09370823
atr: 0.00213716
expires_at: 2026-09-30T09:15:15+00:00

Details

rank: 78
total: 84
score: 0.3394
delta_2h: -0.0553
extension_atr: -0.75
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.1103
confidence: 0.928

Signal Details

Signaux confirmants (2)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	23:15	0.09611100	+0.001%
2	00:15	0.09580700	-0.315%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.09611	0.1015	0.09371	0.45	0.08619

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.09611
Stop Loss: 0.1015
Take Profit: 0.09371

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.1015 - 0.09611 = 0.00539
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.09611 - 0.09371 = 0.0024
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0024 / 0.00539 = 0.4453

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
143.9086	100	1497.317	1.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.00539

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00539 = 1484.23

Taille de position USD = 1484.23 x 0.09611 = 142.65

Donc, tu peux acheter 1484.23 avec un stoploss a 0.1015

Avec un position size USD de 142.65$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1484.23 x 0.00539 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1484.23 x 0.0024 = 3.56

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 3.56$

Résumé

Taille de position 1484.23
Taille de position USD 142.65
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 3.56
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.4453

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	3.59 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
5.61 %	8.07 $

PNL	PNL %
-1.18 $	-0.82

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-1.8094 %	32.26 %	22

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.09611	0.1015	0.09371	0.45	0.08619

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.09611
Stop Loss: 0.1015
Take Profit: 0.09371

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.1015 - 0.09611 = 0.00539
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.09611 - 0.09371 = 0.0024
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0024 / 0.00539 = 0.4453

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -5.608% (0.0054)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.868%	0.2R	-0.335%	0.1R	2.6×	12
2h	+0.868%	0.2R	-0.925%	0.2R	0.9×	24
4h	+2.105%	0.4R	-1.809%	0.3R	1.2×	48
6h ★	+2.105%	0.4R	-1.809%	0.3R	1.2×	72
8h	+2.105%	0.4R	-2.675%	0.5R	0.8×	96
12h	+3.648%	0.7R	-4.287%	0.8R	0.9×	144

computed 6 days ago

Commentaires

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