Short Trade on CHIP

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30 Sep 2026 at 03:11:46 hyperliquid

Short Trade on CHIP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 5845.52 CHIP at 0.0434$ per unit. Take profit: 0.04001 (7.87 %) & Stop Loss: 0.0448 (3.15 %)

CHIP SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 03:11 → 05:30 · 2 hours

Position

Entry 0.04343$

Qty 5845.5176 CHIP

Size 253.9001$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)

Risk Setup

TP 0.04001 (+7.87%)

TP $ 19.99$

SL 0.0448 (-3.15%)

SL $ 8.01$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -3.15% / -8.01$ MAE -7.46% MFE +0.43% 0.1R expires 30 Sep 15:11

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 166789)

#77 / 81 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 03:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.2299

Quality Score

0.357

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

87 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

1.9M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 03:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#77 / 81 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

87 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

3.15 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#77 / 81 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

87 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

3.15 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	0.54×ATR
4h	near	-0.20×ATR
1d	clear	2.55×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	early	OK
4h	↓ down	mid	OK
1d	↑ up	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : -2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 28/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 29/09 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 30/09 01:00 Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

28/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

29/09 20:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

30/09 01:00

Score : 0 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4437

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	-2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	range	0.25	0
Micro	range	compression	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 28.7%

Impulse : +0.00

Participation : btc_led_risk_on

Leadership : btc

% Positive (universe)

15m	15.5%
1h	3.5%
4h	25.9%
24h	43.1%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	29.3%	-0.13%
4h	34.5%	-0.69%
24h	53.5%	-0.59%

Dispersion : 0.136

Universe : 58 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 30/09 03:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4190

Score SMA

0.4981

Rank

#79 / 83

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0488

Rank Norm SMA

0.1728

Calculé le

29/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6665	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.21% · r3d: -9.74% · ema21_slope: 0.4223% · dist_ema21: -1.928%
Force Relative	25%	0.4332	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.02% · rs_3d: -8.80% · beta_24h: 2.692
Volume	20%	0.1566	rvol_20: 0.45× · zscore_50: -0.907 · trend: -37.18%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5294	ADX: 24.9 (weak) · Chop: 60.2 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 12.961% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 03:00

Score brut

0.3568

Score SMA

0.5224

Rank

#77 / 81

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2299

Rank Norm SMA

0.3979

Calculé le

30/09/2026 03:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3407	r1h: -1.352% · r4h: -1.584% · r1d: -2.55% · r3d: -10.80% · ema21_slope: -0.0349% · dist_ema21: -1.562%
Force Relative	25%	0.3426	rs_1h: -0.955% · rs_4h: -1.180% · rs_1d: -1.41% · rs_3d: -9.04% · beta_24h: 2.151
Volume	20%	0.1738	rvol_20: 0.43× · zscore_50: -0.556 · trend: -41.90%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.2960	ADX: 11.3 (weak) · Chop: 75.1 (range)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.793% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 00:00

Score brut

0.3653

Score SMA

0.4724

Rank

#77 / 82

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0550

Rank Norm SMA

0.2082

Calculé le

30/09/2026 00:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3428	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.559% · r1d: 2.72% · r3d: -10.20% · ema21_slope: -0.4111% · dist_ema21: -3.012%
Force Relative	25%	0.4344	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.142% · rs_1d: 2.44% · rs_3d: -8.89% · beta_24h: 2.804
Volume	20%	0.1469	rvol_20: 0.49× · zscore_50: -0.797 · trend: -50.93%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4304	ADX: 14.7 (weak) · Chop: 62.0 (range)
Volatilité	10%	0.5988	ATR%: 4.204% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.155% (0.0014)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.136%	0.0R	-2.719%	0.9R	0.1×	12
2h	+0.136%	0.0R	-2.754%	0.9R	0.1×	24
4h	+0.136%	0.0R	-3.587%	1.1R	0.0×	48
8h	+0.136%	0.0R	-7.465%	2.4R	0.0×	96
12h ★	+0.426%	0.1R	-7.465%	2.4R	0.1×	144
24h	+2.337%	0.7R	-7.465%	2.4R	0.3×	288

computed 6 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.1

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bull_high	50%	noisy_chop 37%	early	—	—	—	bull_high	+12.90%	-0.98	28/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bear_high	52%	noisy_chop 40%	mid	near -0.2ATR	—	0.36	bull_high	+1.30%	-0.80	29/09 20:00
1h	↓ down	range	range	weak	fading	compression	bear_high	57%	noisy_chop 33%	early	—	near 0.4ATR	0.33	range_medium	-0.48%	-0.06	30/09 01:00
15m	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bear_high	59%	noisy_chop 44%	late	near -0.4ATR	—	0.64	range_low	-0.52%	-0.15	30/09 02:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 177691	↔ neutral	bull_high	50%	early 13b -0.2ATR	noisy_chop 37%	0.656	— —	0.45	below_value	-5.56 ATR	—	#97310	28/09 20:00 upd 29/09 20:31
4h 179320	↔ neutral	bear_high	52%	mid 20b -0.8ATR	noisy_chop 40%	0.630	near -0.2ATR —	0.49	below_value	-6.15 ATR	—	#98054	29/09 20:00 upd 30/09 00:21
1h anchor 180070	↓ down	bear_high	57%	early 7b -0.2ATR	noisy_chop 33%	0.664	— near 0.4ATR	0.39	below_value	-6.16 ATR	—	#98465	30/09 01:00 upd 30/09 02:14
15m 180385	↓ down	bear_high	59%	late 10b -1.7ATR	noisy_chop 44%	0.469	near -0.4ATR —	1.04	below_value	-6.16 ATR	—	#98465	30/09 02:45 upd 30/09 03:04
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↑ up	early	13b	—	1.562×ATR	p0	-0.157×ATR	p5
4h	↓ down	mid	20b	—	4.635×ATR	p77	-0.806×ATR	p47
1h	↓ down	early	7b	—	1.148×ATR	p0	-0.235×ATR	p17
15m	↓ down	late	10b	—	2.922×ATR	p60	-1.661×ATR	p83

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

long_trend: -1
confidence: 0.8734
reason: down_bo width=2.97×ATR dur=47b phase=fresh
stop_price: 0.04480357
tp_price: 0.04001358
atr:
score: 0.87343196911894
expires_at: 2026-09-30T19:11:38.217552
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.87343196911894

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : 0.0518
obi_top10 : 0.0083
micro_price : 0.04339249
spread_pct : 0.046094
mid_price : 0.0434
bid_wall_price : 0.0432
bid_wall_size : 736986.4
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price : 0.0436
ask_wall_size : 594481
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 5
obi_top5_mean : 0.0545
obi_top5_std : 0.0058
pressure_side : neutral
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 6975
aggregation_tick : 0.0001
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
0.045825
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
0.0436345
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
0.04472975
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1790586000
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1790751600
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
2.9674
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
47
```
balance_zone_quality: tight
balance_zone_maturity: established
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.8734
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1790748000
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
0.0436345
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.7447
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
0.2703
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
2
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
13
```
regime : bear_high
atr_entry : 0.00073819

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.7447

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

0.2703

Signaux confirmants (3)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	03:11	0.04343500	+0.012%
2	03:22	0.04343500	+0.012%
3	03:32	0.04343500	+0.012%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 6975ms Confidence avant OB : 87% → 87%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.052

avg 0.055 ± 0.006

OBI Top 10 0.008

Microstructure

Mid Price

0.0434

Micro Price

0.0434

Spread

0.0461%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price

0.0432

Size

736,986.40

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price

0.0436

Size

594,481.00

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.04343	0.0448	0.04001	2.5	0.05036

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.04343
Stop Loss: 0.0448
Take Profit: 0.04001

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.0448 - 0.04343 = 0.00137
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.04343 - 0.04001 = 0.00342
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00342 / 0.00137 = 2.4964

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
253.9001	100	5845.5176	3.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.00137

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00137 = 5839.42

Taille de position USD = 5839.42 x 0.04343 = 253.61

Donc, tu peux acheter 5839.42 avec un stoploss a 0.0448

Avec un position size USD de 253.61$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 5839.42 x 0.00137 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 5839.42 x 0.00342 = 19.97

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.97$

Résumé

Taille de position 5839.42
Taille de position USD 253.61
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 19.97
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4964

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
7.87 %	19.99 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
3.15 %	8.01 $

PNL	PNL %
-8.01 $	-3.15

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-3.5874 %	113.72 %	1

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.04343	0.0448	0.04001	2.5	0.05036

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.04343
Stop Loss: 0.0448
Take Profit: 0.04001

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.0448 - 0.04343 = 0.00137
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.04343 - 0.04001 = 0.00342
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00342 / 0.00137 = 2.4964

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.04001
            [entry_price] => 0.04343
            [stop_loss] => 0.044937
            [rr_ratio] => 2.27
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-09-30 09:30:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.04001
            [entry_price] => 0.04343
            [stop_loss] => 0.045074
            [rr_ratio] => 2.08
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-09-30 11:40:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.04001
            [entry_price] => 0.04343
            [stop_loss] => 0.045211
            [rr_ratio] => 1.92
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-09-30 11:40:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.04001
            [entry_price] => 0.04343
            [stop_loss] => 0.045485
            [rr_ratio] => 1.66
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-09-30 12:35:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.155% (0.0014)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.136%	0.0R	-2.719%	0.9R	0.1×	12
2h	+0.136%	0.0R	-2.754%	0.9R	0.1×	24
4h	+0.136%	0.0R	-3.587%	1.1R	0.0×	48
8h	+0.136%	0.0R	-7.465%	2.4R	0.0×	96
12h ★	+0.426%	0.1R	-7.465%	2.4R	0.1×	144
24h	+2.337%	0.7R	-7.465%	2.4R	0.3×	288

computed 6 days ago

Commentaires

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