Short Trade on XPL

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30 Sep 2026 at 14:12:51 hyperliquid

Short Trade on XPL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 2325.3 XPL at 0.0939$ per unit. Take profit: 0.08535 (9.15 %) & Stop Loss: 0.09739 (3.66 %)

XPL SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 14:12 → 23:40 · 9 hours

Position

Entry 0.09395$

Qty 2325.3043 XPL

Size 218.467$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.08535 (+9.15%)

TP $ 20$

SL 0.09739 (-3.66%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -3.66% / -8$ MAE -5.10% MFE +3.74% 1.0R expires 01 Oct 02:12

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 167881)

#73 / 74 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 14:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.2030

Quality Score

0.364

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

75 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

28.9M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 14:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#73 / 74 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

75 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

3.66 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#73 / 74 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

75 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

3.66 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	near	-1.90×ATR
4h	clear	0.63×ATR
1d	clear	0.51×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↑ up	mid	OK
4h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : -2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 28/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 30/09 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 30/09 13:00 Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

28/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

30/09 08:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

30/09 13:00

Score : 0 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4481

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	-2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	range	0.25	0
Micro	range	range	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 28.2%

Impulse : -0.01

Participation : btc_led_risk_on

Leadership : btc

% Positive (universe)

15m	62.1%
1h	5.2%
4h	13.8%
24h	77.6%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	46.6%	+0.05%
4h	27.6%	-1.33%
24h	63.8%	+1.57%

Dispersion : 0.189

Universe : 58 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 30/09 14:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4974

Score SMA

0.6233

Rank

#65 / 83

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2195

Rank Norm SMA

0.4935

Calculé le

29/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6287	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -2.58% · r3d: -14.17% · ema21_slope: 1.0559% · dist_ema21: -0.266%
Force Relative	25%	0.3953	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -2.77% · rs_3d: -13.23% · beta_24h: 1.406
Volume	20%	0.5490	rvol_20: 1.13× · zscore_50: 0.721 · trend: 100.05%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6679	ADX: 23.1 (weak) · Chop: 41.2 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 12.192% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 14:00

Score brut

0.3636

Score SMA

0.5200

Rank

#73 / 74

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2030

Rank Norm SMA

0.3712

Calculé le

30/09/2026 14:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2146	r1h: -2.039% · r4h: -4.022% · r1d: -3.43% · r3d: -10.50% · ema21_slope: -0.0741% · dist_ema21: -2.775%
Force Relative	25%	0.2234	rs_1h: -1.646% · rs_4h: -3.291% · rs_1d: -4.59% · rs_3d: -9.85% · beta_24h: 1.565
Volume	20%	0.3487	rvol_20: 1.06× · zscore_50: -0.175 · trend: 3.22%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5071	ADX: 15.9 (weak) · Chop: 53.7 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.581% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 12:00

Score brut

0.3231

Score SMA

0.4964

Rank

#76 / 76

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0250

Rank Norm SMA

0.2975

Calculé le

30/09/2026 12:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2824	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -2.933% · r1d: -3.80% · r3d: -8.95% · ema21_slope: -0.4675% · dist_ema21: -4.616%
Force Relative	25%	0.3585	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -3.223% · rs_1d: -5.10% · rs_3d: -8.58% · beta_24h: 1.928
Volume	20%	0.3285	rvol_20: 1.13× · zscore_50: -0.092 · trend: -24.69%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4025	ADX: 23.9 (weak) · Chop: 74.9 (range)
Volatilité	10%	0.2266	ATR%: 5.320% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.662% (0.0034)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+3.742%	1.0R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	12
2h	+3.742%	1.0R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	24
4h	+3.742%	1.0R	-0.289%	0.1R	13.0×	48
8h	+3.742%	1.0R	-1.796%	0.5R	2.1×	96
12h ★	+3.742%	1.0R	-5.097%	1.4R	0.7×	144
24h	+3.742%	1.0R	-5.112%	1.4R	0.7×	288

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 1.24

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	expansion_after_compression	bull_high	60%	noisy_chop 41%	early	—	near -0.2ATR	0.54	bull_high	+12.90%	+0.05	28/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bear_high	47%	noisy_chop 43%	late	—	—	0.48	bull_high	+2.22%	-0.93	30/09 08:00
1h	↓ down	range	range	strong	balanced	expansion_after_compression	bear_high	59%	noisy_chop 40%	mid	near -1.9ATR	—	0.44	range_medium	+0.27%	-0.35	30/09 13:00
15m	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	expansion	bear_high	59%	noisy_chop 46%	late	near -0.4ATR	—	0.66	range_low	+0.27%	-0.37	30/09 13:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 177653	↔ neutral	bull_high	60%	early 4b 0.0ATR	noisy_chop 41%	0.674	— near -0.2ATR	1.13	below_value	-6.68 ATR	—	#97294	28/09 20:00 upd 29/09 20:29
4h 184300	↔ neutral	bear_high	47%	late 25b -1.0ATR	noisy_chop 43%	0.546	— —	1.13	below_value	-6.85 ATR	—	#100228	30/09 08:00 upd 30/09 12:18
1h anchor 185063	↓ down	bear_high	59%	mid 3b -1.1ATR	noisy_chop 40%	0.407	near -1.9ATR —	1.06	below_value	-7.14 ATR	—	#100608	30/09 13:00 upd 30/09 14:12
15m 184987	↓ down	bear_high	59%	late 4b -1.7ATR	noisy_chop 46%	0.481	near -0.4ATR —	0.81	below_value	-6.49 ATR	—	#100458	30/09 13:45 upd 30/09 14:03
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	4b	—	2.562×ATR	p8	-0.02×ATR	p2
4h	↓ down	late	25b	—	5.31×ATR	p80	-1.021×ATR	p65
1h	↑ up	mid	3b	—	0.592×ATR	p0	-1.095×ATR	p69
15m	↓ down	late	4b	—	2.303×ATR	p8	-1.72×ATR	p86

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

long_trend: -1
confidence: 0.7527
reason: down_bo width=2.63×ATR dur=52b phase=fresh
stop_price: 0.09739241
tp_price: 0.08535098
atr:
score: 0.75268853842192
expires_at: 2026-10-01T06:12:43.713207
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.75268853842192

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : -0.0644
obi_top10 : 0.0168
micro_price : 0.09374139
spread_pct : 0.053362
mid_price : 0.093725
bid_wall_price : 0.0928
bid_wall_size : 1803046
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price : 0.094
ask_wall_size : 1958744.6
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 5
obi_top5_mean : -0.0709
obi_top5_std : 0.0039
pressure_side : neutral
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 7108
aggregation_tick : 0.0001
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
0.10023
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
0.094087
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
0.0971585
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1790607600
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1790791200
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
2.6262
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
52
```
balance_zone_quality: loose
balance_zone_maturity: established
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.7527
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1790787600
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
0.094087
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.8269
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
0.0577
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
11
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
6
```
regime : bear_high
atr_entry : 0.00233908

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.8269

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

0.0577

Signaux confirmants (2)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	14:12	0.09395200	+0.002%
2	14:25	0.09395200	+0.002%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7108ms Confidence avant OB : 75% → 75%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.064

avg -0.071 ± 0.004

OBI Top 10 0.017

Microstructure

Mid Price

0.0937

Micro Price

0.0937

Spread

0.0534%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price

0.0928

Size

1,803,046.00

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price

0.0940

Size

1,958,744.60

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.09395	0.09739	0.08535	2.5	0.08483

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.09395
Stop Loss: 0.09739
Take Profit: 0.08535

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.09739 - 0.09395 = 0.00344
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.09395 - 0.08535 = 0.0086
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0086 / 0.00344 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
218.467	100	2325.3043	2.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.00344

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00344 = 2325.58

Taille de position USD = 2325.58 x 0.09395 = 218.49

Donc, tu peux acheter 2325.58 avec un stoploss a 0.09739

Avec un position size USD de 218.49$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 2325.58 x 0.00344 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 2325.58 x 0.0086 = 20

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$

Résumé

Taille de position 2325.58
Taille de position USD 218.49
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 20
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
9.15 %	20 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
3.66 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-8 $	-3.66

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-3.7137 %	101.43 %	5

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.09395	0.09739	0.08535	2.5	0.08483

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.09395
Stop Loss: 0.09739
Take Profit: 0.08535

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.09739 - 0.09395 = 0.00344
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.09395 - 0.08535 = 0.0086
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0086 / 0.00344 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.662% (0.0034)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+3.742%	1.0R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	12
2h	+3.742%	1.0R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	24
4h	+3.742%	1.0R	-0.289%	0.1R	13.0×	48
8h	+3.742%	1.0R	-1.796%	0.5R	2.1×	96
12h ★	+3.742%	1.0R	-5.097%	1.4R	0.7×	144
24h	+3.742%	1.0R	-5.112%	1.4R	0.7×	288

computed 1 week ago

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