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Short Trade on XPL

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30 Sep 2026 at 14:37:19 hyperliquid

Short Trade on XPL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 1218.15 XPL at 0.0913$ per unit. Take profit: 0.0749 (17.98 %) & Stop Loss: 0.09788 (7.18 %)

XPL SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 14:37 → 01:10 · 10 hours

Position

Entry 0.09132$

Qty 1218.1455 XPL

Size 111.2362$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0.0749 (+17.98%)

TP $ 20$

SL 0.09788 (-7.18%)

SL $ 7.99$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -7.18% / -7.99$ MAE -8.14% MFE +0.72% 0.1R expires 01 Oct 02:37

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 167881)
#73 / 74 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 14:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.2030

Quality Score
0.366
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
75 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
29.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 14:32

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#73 / 74 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
75 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-2 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
7.18 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#73 / 74 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
75 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-2 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
7.18 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h near -1.90×ATR
4h clear 0.63×ATR
1d clear 0.51×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up mid OK
4h ↓ down late BLOCKED
1d ↓ down early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

28/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

30/09 08:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

30/09 13:00

Score : 0 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4483
bull developing bull_consolidation
Strategic bull expansion 0.90 -2
Operational range range 0.25 0
Tactical range range 0.25 0
Micro range range 0.25
MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) -2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 35.0%
Impulse : -0.01
Participation : btc_led_risk_on
Leadership : btc
% Positive (universe)
15m 50.9%
1h 8.5%
4h 45.8%
24h 47.5%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 50.9% +0.01%
4h 33.9% -0.06%
24h 42.4% -0.14%
Dispersion : 0.171
Universe : 59 (≥ $2.0M)
Regime confidence : 0.75
Snapshot évalué : 30/09 14:31 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4974
Score SMA
0.6233
Rank
#65 / 83
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2195
Rank Norm SMA
0.4935
Calculé le
29/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6287 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -2.58% · r3d: -14.17% · ema21_slope: 1.0559% · dist_ema21: -0.266%
Force Relative 25% 0.3953 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -2.77% · rs_3d: -13.23% · beta_24h: 1.406
Volume 20% 0.5490 rvol_20: 1.13× · zscore_50: 0.721 · trend: 100.05%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6679 ADX: 23.1 (weak) · Chop: 41.2 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 12.192% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 30/09/2026 14:00
Score brut
0.3660
Score SMA
0.5200
Rank
#73 / 74
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2030
Rank Norm SMA
0.3712
Calculé le
30/09/2026 14:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.2146 r1h: -2.039% · r4h: -4.022% · r1d: -3.43% · r3d: -10.50% · ema21_slope: -0.0741% · dist_ema21: -2.775%
Force Relative 25% 0.2234 rs_1h: -1.646% · rs_4h: -3.291% · rs_1d: -4.59% · rs_3d: -9.85% · beta_24h: 1.565
Volume 20% 0.3487 rvol_20: 1.06× · zscore_50: -0.175 · trend: 3.22%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5071 ADX: 15.9 (weak) · Chop: 53.7 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.581% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 30/09/2026 12:00
Score brut
0.3231
Score SMA
0.4964
Rank
#76 / 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0250
Rank Norm SMA
0.2975
Calculé le
30/09/2026 12:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.2824 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -2.933% · r1d: -3.80% · r3d: -8.95% · ema21_slope: -0.4675% · dist_ema21: -4.616%
Force Relative 25% 0.3585 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -3.223% · rs_1d: -5.10% · rs_3d: -8.58% · beta_24h: 1.928
Volume 20% 0.3285 rvol_20: 1.13× · zscore_50: -0.092 · trend: -24.69%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4025 ADX: 23.9 (weak) · Chop: 74.9 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.2266 ATR%: 5.320% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -7.184% (0.0066)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.431% 0.1R -0.839% 0.1R 0.5× 12
2h +0.717% 0.1R -1.821% 0.3R 0.4× 24
4h +0.717% 0.1R -3.762% 0.5R 0.2× 48
8h +0.717% 0.1R -5.273% 0.7R 0.1× 96
12h ★ +0.717% 0.1R -8.140% 1.1R 0.1× 144
24h +0.717% 0.1R -8.140% 1.1R 0.1× 288

computed 2 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.41
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral range range moderate grind expansion_after_compression bull_high
60%
noisy_chop 41% early — near -0.2ATR 0.54 bull_high +12.90% +0.05 28/09 20:00
4h ↔ neutral range range moderate grind compression bear_high
47%
noisy_chop 43% late — — 0.48 bull_high +2.22% -0.93 30/09 08:00
1h ↓ down range range strong balanced expansion_after_compression bear_high
59%
noisy_chop 40% mid near -1.9ATR — 0.44 range_medium +0.27% -0.35 30/09 13:00
15m ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind normal bear_high
58%
noisy_chop 47% late near -1.1ATR — 0.66 range_low +0.15% -0.49 30/09 14:15
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Regime Tradability Move PAQ Momentum Near S/D RVOL Vol zone POC dist LVN VP ref Évalué à
1d
177653 		↔ neutral bull_high
60%
early 4b 0.0ATR noisy_chop 41% 0.674

—

near -0.2ATR

1.13 below_value -6.68 ATR — #97294 28/09 20:00
upd 29/09 20:29
4h
184300 		↔ neutral bear_high
47%
late 25b -1.0ATR noisy_chop 43% 0.546

—

—

1.13 below_value -6.85 ATR — #100228 30/09 08:00
upd 30/09 12:18
1h anchor
185063 		↓ down bear_high
59%
mid 3b -1.1ATR noisy_chop 40% 0.407

near -1.9ATR

—

1.06 below_value -7.14 ATR — #100608 30/09 13:00
upd 30/09 14:12
15m
185212 		↓ down bear_high
58%
late 6b -2.3ATR noisy_chop 47% 0.475

near -1.1ATR

—

0.43 below_value -7.14 ATR — #100608 30/09 14:15
upd 30/09 14:33
5m
Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down early 4b — 2.562×ATR p8 -0.02×ATR p2
4h ↓ down late 25b — 5.31×ATR p80 -1.021×ATR p65
1h ↑ up mid 3b — 0.592×ATR p0 -1.095×ATR p69
15m ↓ down late 6b — 3.057×ATR p42 -2.319×ATR p97

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.7534
  3. reason: down_bo width=2.81×ATR dur=52b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 0.09788336
  5. tp_price: 0.07489759
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.75338437566342
  8. expires_at: 2026-10-01T06:37:11.084877
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.75338437566342
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
    5. ¸
  5. market_structures
    6. ¸
  6. market_structure_v2
    7. ¸
  7. trend_analyzer_1h
    8. ¸
  8. orderbook_context
  9. obi_top5 : -0.0977
  10. obi_top10 : -0.008
  11. micro_price : 0.09140353
  12. spread_pct : 0.03283
  13. mid_price : 0.091395
  14. bid_wall_price :
  15. bid_wall_size :
  16. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  17. ask_wall_price : 0.0922
  18. ask_wall_size : 2041012
  19. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  20. snapshots_count : 5
  21. obi_top5_mean : -0.1009
  22. obi_top5_std : 0.0024
  23. pressure_side : neutral
  24. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  25. collection_ms : 7065
  26. aggregation_tick : 0.0001
  27. error :
    28. ¸
  28. strategy_details
  29. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  30. strategy_details
  31. balance_zone_top: 
    0.101175
  32. balance_zone_bottom: 
    0.094087
  33. balance_zone_mid: 
    0.097631
  34. balance_zone_start_time: 
    1790607600
  35. balance_zone_end_time: 
    1790791200
  36. balance_zone_width_atr: 
    2.8086
  37. balance_zone_duration_bars: 
    52
  38. balance_zone_quality: tight
  39. balance_zone_maturity: established
  40. balance_zone_confidence: 
    0.7534
  41. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  42. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  43. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  44. balance_zone_breakout_time: 
    1790787600
  45. balance_zone_breakout_price: 
    0.094087
  46. strategy_details
  47. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio: 
    0.9038
  48. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout: 
    1
  49. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr: 
    1.098
  50. balance_metrics_has_retested: 
    1
  51. balance_metrics_retest_count: 
    1
  52. balance_metrics_touch_upper: 
    9
  53. balance_metrics_touch_lower: 
    7
  54. regime : bear_high
  55. atr_entry : 0.00252365
    56. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
52
inside_close_ratio
0.9038
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.098

Signaux confirmants (16)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 14:37 0.09131600 -0.004%
2 14:48 0.09131600 -0.004%
3 14:59 0.09131600 -0.004%
4 15:11 0.09157600 +0.28%
5 15:23 0.09157600 +0.28%
6 15:34 0.09157600 +0.28%
7 15:45 0.09202400 +0.771%
8 15:56 0.09202400 +0.771%
9 16:11 0.09194000 +0.679%
10 16:23 0.09194000 +0.679%
11 16:34 0.09194000 +0.679%
12 16:45 0.09259400 +1.395%
13 16:56 0.09259400 +1.395%
14 17:08 0.09259400 +1.395%
15 17:19 0.09230100 +1.074%
16 17:30 0.09230100 +1.074%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7065ms Confidence avant OB : 75% → 75%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.098
avg -0.101 ± 0.002
OBI Top 10 -0.008

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.0914
Micro Price
0.0914
Spread
0.0328%

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
0.0922
Size
2,041,012.00

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.09132 0.09788 0.0749 2.5 0.08532
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.09132
  • Stop Loss: 0.09788
  • Take Profit: 0.0749

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.09788 - 0.09132 = 0.00656

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.09132 - 0.0749 = 0.01642

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.01642 / 0.00656 = 2.503

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
111.2362 100 1218.1455 1.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.00656

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00656 = 1219.51

Taille de position USD = 1219.51 x 0.09132 = 111.37

Donc, tu peux acheter 1219.51 avec un stoploss a 0.09788

Avec un position size USD de 111.37$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1219.51 x 0.00656 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1219.51 x 0.01642 = 20.02

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.02$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 1219.51
  • Taille de position USD 111.37
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20.02
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.503

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
17.98 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
7.18 % 7.99 $
PNL PNL %
-7.99 $ -7.18
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-7.4781 % 104.1 % 6
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.09132 0.09788 0.0749 2.5 0.08532
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.09132
  • Stop Loss: 0.09788
  • Take Profit: 0.0749

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.09788 - 0.09132 = 0.00656

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.09132 - 0.0749 = 0.01642

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.01642 / 0.00656 = 2.503

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -7.184% (0.0066)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.431% 0.1R -0.839% 0.1R 0.5× 12
2h +0.717% 0.1R -1.821% 0.3R 0.4× 24
4h +0.717% 0.1R -3.762% 0.5R 0.2× 48
8h +0.717% 0.1R -5.273% 0.7R 0.1× 96
12h ★ +0.717% 0.1R -8.140% 1.1R 0.1× 144
24h +0.717% 0.1R -8.140% 1.1R 0.1× 288

computed 2 weeks ago

Commentaires

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