30 Sep 2026 at 21:45:05 hyperliquid

Long Trade on STRK (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 5707.64 STRK at 0.0435$ per unit. Take profit: 0.04698 (8.05 %) & Stop Loss: 0.04208 (3.22 %)

STRK LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 21:45 → 09:40 · 11 hours

Position

Entry 0.04348$

Qty 5707.6404 STRK

Size 248.1682$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.04698 (+8.05%)

TP $ 19.98$

SL 0.04208 (-3.22%)

SL $ 7.99$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -2.02% / -5.02$ MAE -2.92% MFE +3.45% 1.1R expires 01 Oct 09:44 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 168624)
#18 / 77 OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 21:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.7489

Quality Score
0.547
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
90 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 21:31

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 168624)
#18 / 77 OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 21:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.7489

Quality Score
0.547
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#18 / 77 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
90 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.22 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#18 / 77 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
90 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.22 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Supply Distance (ATR)
1h near -0.57×ATR
4h near -0.01×ATR
1d clear 1.36×ATR
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up mid OK
4h ↓ down early OK
1d ↓ down early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
2.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 21:31
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3)

29/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

30/09 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1)

30/09 20:00

Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4511
bull developing bull_consolidation
Strategic bull

0.90

expansion

+2

Operational range

0.25

range

0

Tactical range

0.25

range

0

Micro range

0.25

range

MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) +2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 71.5%
Macro broad_risk_on
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Legacy leadership : alts
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 50.0%
1h 71.0%
4h 80.7%
24h 51.6%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 72.6% +0.01%
4h 82.3% +0.78%
24h 50.0% +0.31%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : 0.117
Universe : 62 · ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence : 0.75
Snapshot évalué : 30/09 21:31 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 30/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.6343
Score SMA
0.5953
Rank
#28 / 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6400
Rank Norm SMA
0.3732
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.8795 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 3.03% · r3d: 2.35% · ema21_slope: 1.7016% · dist_ema21: 13.304%
Force Relative 25% 0.7764 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 3.05% · rs_3d: 3.33% · beta_24h: 2.517
Volume 20% 0.2591 rvol_20: 0.48× · zscore_50: -0.052 · trend: -3.05%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.8302 ADX: 39.6 (trend) · Chop: 32.3 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 9.165% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 30/09/2026 21:00
Score brut
0.5467
Score SMA
0.5291
Rank
#18 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7489
Rank Norm SMA
0.4507
Calculé le
30/09/2026 21:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6247 r1h: 0.440% · r4h: 1.977% · r1d: 2.68% · r3d: 5.25% · ema21_slope: 0.0468% · dist_ema21: 1.960%
Force Relative 25% 0.6519 rs_1h: 0.585% · rs_4h: 2.188% · rs_1d: 2.59% · rs_3d: 5.96% · beta_24h: 1.447
Volume 20% 0.1498 rvol_20: 0.21× · zscore_50: -0.752 · trend: -50.15%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4427 ADX: 10.7 (weak) · Chop: 56.3 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.789% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 30/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5659
Score SMA
0.4794
Rank
#20 / 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7615
Rank Norm SMA
0.2884
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.7352 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 1.220% · r1d: 3.03% · r3d: 2.35% · ema21_slope: 0.2386% · dist_ema21: 3.126%
Force Relative 25% 0.6763 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 1.196% · rs_1d: 3.05% · rs_3d: 3.33% · beta_24h: 2.207
Volume 20% 0.1804 rvol_20: 0.42× · zscore_50: -0.555 · trend: -36.95%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4739 ADX: 18.8 (weak) · Chop: 60.8 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.6907 ATR%: 3.928% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.220% (0.0014)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.667% 0.2R -1.242% 0.4R 0.5× 12
2h +2.346% 0.7R -1.242% 0.4R 1.9× 24
4h +2.346% 0.7R -1.242% 0.4R 1.9× 48
8h +3.450% 1.1R -1.242% 0.4R 2.8× 96
12h ★ +3.450% 1.1R -2.921% 0.9R 1.2× 143
24h +3.450% 1.1R -5.451% 1.7R 0.6× 288
36h +3.772% 1.2R -5.451% 1.7R 0.7× 432
48h +3.772% 1.2R -6.509% 2.0R 0.6× 576
72h +29.830% 9.3R -6.509% 2.0R 4.6× 864
⏱ MFE in 1644 min MAE in 1069 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 2 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 3.05
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up transition bullish_transition strong explosive volatile_reversal bull_high
62%
noisy_chop 43% early — — 0.57 bull_high +12.59% +1.00 29/09 20:00
4h ↑ up range range moderate grind normal bull_high
66%
noisy_chop 37% early — near 0.0ATR 0.41 bull_high +1.53% +0.65 30/09 16:00
1h ↑ up range range moderate balanced normal bull_high
62%
noisy_chop 39% mid — near -0.6ATR 0.30 range_medium -0.35% +0.15 30/09 20:00
15m ↑ up range range moderate balanced compression bull_high
59%
noisy_chop 44% mid — near -1.0ATR 0.54 range_low -0.13% +0.13 30/09 21:15
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#187665
↑ up transition bullish_transition strong explosive 0.824 volatile_reversal bull_high
62%
noisy_chop 43% early 10b 0.9ATR — — 0.48 89% ↑ +0.72 above_value +2.57 — #101595 0.57 bull_high +12.59% +1.00
29/09 20:00
upd 30/09 20:23
4h
#187491
↑ up range range moderate grind 0.707 normal bull_high
66%
noisy_chop 37% early 9b 0.7ATR — near 0.0ATR 0.42 45% ↔ -0.14 above_value +2.57 — #101595 0.41 bull_high +1.53% +0.65
30/09 16:00
upd 30/09 20:15
1h anchor
#188049
↑ up range range moderate balanced 0.662 normal bull_high
62%
noisy_chop 39% mid 10b 1.0ATR — near -0.6ATR 0.21 10% ↔ -0.13 above_value +2.88 — #101826 0.30 range_medium -0.35% +0.15
30/09 20:00
upd 30/09 21:10
15m
#188205
↑ up range range moderate balanced 0.510 compression bull_high
59%
noisy_chop 44% mid 13b 1.5ATR — near -1.0ATR 0.07 1% ↔ -0.15 above_value +2.88 — #101826 0.54 range_low -0.13% +0.13
30/09 21:15
upd 30/09 21:32
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down early 10b — 1.98×ATR p0 +0.924×ATR p44
4h ↓ down early 9b — 0.797×ATR p0 +0.732×ATR p48
1h ↑ up mid 10b — 2.993×ATR p71 +0.983×ATR p62
15m ↑ up mid 13b — 4.247×ATR p74 +1.452×ATR p75

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: 1
  2. confidence: 0.903
  3. reason: up_bo width=2.97×ATR dur=33b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 0.04207837
  5. tp_price: 0.04698408
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.90298264282166
  8. expires_at: 2026-10-01T13:44:57.700478
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.90298264282166
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : -0.0121
  14. obi_top10 : -0.0065
  15. micro_price : 0.04320256
  16. spread_pct : 0.092627
  17. mid_price : 0.043204
  18. bid_wall_price : 0.0431
  19. bid_wall_size : 3417489.1
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price : 0.0434
  22. ask_wall_size : 3778380.6
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : -0.0131
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.0008
  27. pressure_side : neutral
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 6908
  30. aggregation_tick : 0.0001
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    0.043255
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    0.04105
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    0.0421525
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1790701200
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1790816400
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    2.9744
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    33
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: established
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.903
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1790812800
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    0.043255
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.9394
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    1
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    0.3035
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    1
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    1
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    6
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    4
  59. regime : bull_high
  60. atr_entry : 0.00074132
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
33
inside_close_ratio
0.9394
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.3035

Signaux confirmants (19)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 21:45 0.04348000 0%
2 21:55 0.04348000 0%
3 22:08 0.04348000 0%
4 23:11 0.04408000 +1.38%
5 23:22 0.04408000 +1.38%
6 23:32 0.04408000 +1.38%
7 23:42 0.04403000 +1.265%
8 23:52 0.04403000 +1.265%
9 00:03 0.04403000 +1.265%
10 00:17 0.04375000 +0.621%
11 00:28 0.04375000 +0.621%
12 00:39 0.04382000 +0.782%
13 00:50 0.04382000 +0.782%
14 01:00 0.04382000 +0.782%
15 01:44 0.04390000 +0.966%
16 01:55 0.04390000 +0.966%
17 02:08 0.04392000 +1.012%
18 02:20 0.04392000 +1.012%
19 02:31 0.04392000 +1.012%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 6908ms Confidence avant OB : 90% → 90%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.012
avg -0.013 ± 0.001
OBI Top 10 -0.007

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.0432
Micro Price
0.0432
Spread
0.0926%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
0.0431
Size
3,417,489.10

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
0.0434
Size
3,778,380.60

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.04348 0.04208 0.04698 2.5 0.05021
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.04348
  • Stop Loss: 0.04208
  • Take Profit: 0.04698

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.04208 - 0.04348 = -0.0014

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.04348 - 0.04698 = -0.0035

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0035 / -0.0014 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
248.1682 100 5707.6404 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss -0.0014

Taille de position = 8 / -0.0014 = -5714.29

Taille de position USD = -5714.29 x 0.04348 = -248.46

Donc, tu peux acheter -5714.29 avec un stoploss a 0.04208

Avec un position size USD de -248.46$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -5714.29 x -0.0014 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -5714.29 x -0.0035 = 20

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$

Résumé

  • Taille de position -5714.29
  • Taille de position USD -248.46
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
8.05 % 19.98 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
3.22 % 7.99 $
PNL PNL %
-5.02 $ -2.02
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-2.9209 % 90.71 % 15
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.04348 0.04208 0.04698 2.5 0.05021
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.04348
  • Stop Loss: 0.04208
  • Take Profit: 0.04698

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.04208 - 0.04348 = -0.0014

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.04348 - 0.04698 = -0.0035

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0035 / -0.0014 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.220% (0.0014)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.667% 0.2R -1.242% 0.4R 0.5× 12
2h +2.346% 0.7R -1.242% 0.4R 1.9× 24
4h +2.346% 0.7R -1.242% 0.4R 1.9× 48
8h +3.450% 1.1R -1.242% 0.4R 2.8× 96
12h ★ +3.450% 1.1R -2.921% 0.9R 1.2× 143
24h +3.450% 1.1R -5.451% 1.7R 0.6× 288
36h +3.772% 1.2R -5.451% 1.7R 0.7× 432
48h +3.772% 1.2R -6.509% 2.0R 0.6× 576
72h +29.830% 9.3R -6.509% 2.0R 4.6× 864
⏱ MFE in 1644 min MAE in 1069 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 2 days ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.