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Short Trade on DASH

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30 Sep 2026 at 22:13:23 hyperliquid

Short Trade on DASH (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 5.73 DASH at 59.821$ per unit. Take profit: 56.3293 (5.84 %) & Stop Loss: 61.2177 (2.33 %)

DASH SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 22:13 → 10:10 · 11 hours

Position

Entry 59.821$

Qty 5.7278 DASH

Size 342.6448$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)

Risk Setup

TP 56.3293 (+5.84%)

TP $ 20$

SL 61.2177 (-2.33%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status win PnL +2.15% / +7.36$ MAE -1.86% MFE +2.50% 1.1R expires 01 Oct 10:13 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 168737)
#76 / 77 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 22:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.0990

Quality Score
0.410
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
92 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 22:03

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 168737)
#76 / 77 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 22:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.0990

Quality Score
0.410
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#76 / 77 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
92 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-2
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-4 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.33 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#76 / 77 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
92 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-4 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.33 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h near 0.38×ATR
4h near 0.49×ATR
1d clear 1.61×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down mid OK
4h ↓ down late BLOCKED
1d ↑ up early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
1.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 22:03
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

29/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : range_high (0)

30/09 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

30/09 21:00

Score : -2 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4513
bull developing bull_consolidation
Strategic bull

0.90

expansion

-2

Operational range

0.25

range

0

Tactical range

0.25

range

0

Micro range

0.25

compression

MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) -2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 70.4%
Macro broad_risk_on
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Legacy leadership : alts
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 45.2%
1h 64.5%
4h 79.0%
24h 54.8%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 33.9% -0.01%
4h 80.7% +0.80%
24h 54.8% +0.42%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : 0.128
Universe : 62 · ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence : 0.75
Snapshot évalué : 30/09 22:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 30/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5025
Score SMA
0.6026
Rank
#65 / 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1467
Rank Norm SMA
0.3821
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.7169 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.37% · r3d: -11.72% · ema21_slope: 1.0448% · dist_ema21: 0.634%
Force Relative 25% 0.5640 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.35% · rs_3d: -10.73% · beta_24h: 1.415
Volume 20% 0.2123 rvol_20: 0.38× · zscore_50: -0.514 · trend: -15.05%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6932 ADX: 41.1 (trend) · Chop: 56.6 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 10.463% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 30/09/2026 22:00
Score brut
0.4103
Score SMA
0.5348
Rank
#76 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0990
Rank Norm SMA
0.4488
Calculé le
30/09/2026 22:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3677 r1h: -0.850% · r4h: -0.680% · r1d: -2.59% · r3d: -12.23% · ema21_slope: -0.0845% · dist_ema21: -1.836%
Force Relative 25% 0.3216 rs_1h: -0.868% · rs_4h: -0.386% · rs_1d: -2.70% · rs_3d: -12.05% · beta_24h: 1.201
Volume 20% 0.1574 rvol_20: 0.42× · zscore_50: -0.639 · trend: -52.36%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5638 ADX: 17.0 (weak) · Chop: 47.9 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.476% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 30/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3969
Score SMA
0.5318
Rank
#67 / 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1126
Rank Norm SMA
0.3717
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3503 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.819% · r1d: -0.37% · r3d: -11.72% · ema21_slope: -0.4372% · dist_ema21: -3.065%
Force Relative 25% 0.4609 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.795% · rs_1d: -0.35% · rs_3d: -10.73% · beta_24h: 2.857
Volume 20% 0.1618 rvol_20: 0.30× · zscore_50: -0.573 · trend: -65.06%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4748 ADX: 23.1 (weak) · Chop: 65.2 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.7297 ATR%: 3.811% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.335% (1.3967)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.455% 0.2R -0.893% 0.4R 0.5× 12
2h +0.455% 0.2R -1.541% 0.7R 0.3× 24
4h +0.455% 0.2R -1.861% 0.8R 0.2× 48
8h +1.807% 0.8R -1.861% 0.8R 1.0× 96
12h ★ +2.501% 1.1R -1.861% 0.8R 1.3× 144
24h +3.166% 1.4R -1.861% 0.8R 1.7× 288
36h +3.166% 1.4R -1.861% 0.8R 1.7× 432
48h +7.293% 3.1R -1.861% 0.8R 3.9× 576
72h +7.293% 3.1R -1.861% 0.8R 3.9× 864
⏱ MFE in 881 min MAE in 156 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 2 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 1.06
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind normal bull_high
65%
noisy_chop 39% early — — 0.53 bull_high +12.59% +0.25 29/09 20:00
4h ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate grind compression range_high
33%
noisy_chop 45% late near 0.5ATR — 0.43 bull_high +1.53% -0.75 30/09 16:00
1h ↓ down range range moderate fading normal bear_high
54%
noisy_chop 40% mid near 0.4ATR — 0.46 range_medium -0.32% -0.19 30/09 21:00
15m ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate balanced compression bear_medium
59%
noisy_chop 39% late near -1.6ATR — 0.63 range_low -0.27% -0.07 30/09 21:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#187774
 ↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind 0.722 normal bull_high
65%
noisy_chop 39% early 15b 0.1ATR — — 0.38 69% ↑ +0.19 below_value -12.24 — #101631 0.53 bull_high +12.59% +0.25
29/09 20:00
upd 30/09 20:27
4h
#187649
 ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate grind 0.656 compression range_high
33%
noisy_chop 45% late 24b -0.9ATR near 0.5ATR — 0.30 7% ↓ -0.40 below_value -12.24 — #101631 0.43 bull_high +1.53% -0.75
30/09 16:00
upd 30/09 20:23
1h anchor
#188475
 ↓ down range range moderate fading 0.611 normal bear_high
54%
noisy_chop 40% mid 9b -1.1ATR near 0.4ATR — 0.42 11% ↓ -0.52 below_value -13.89 — #102018 0.46 range_medium -0.32% -0.19
30/09 21:00
upd 30/09 22:13
15m
#188396
 ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate balanced 0.549 compression bear_medium
59%
noisy_chop 39% late 10b -2.2ATR near -1.6ATR — 0.31 19% ↔ -0.10 below_value -12.95 — #101862 0.63 range_low -0.27% -0.07
30/09 21:45
upd 30/09 22:04
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↑ up early 15b — 1.722×ATR p0 +0.056×ATR p2
4h ↓ down late 24b — 5.695×ATR p84 -0.883×ATR p50
1h ↓ down mid 9b — 2.746×ATR p66 -1.094×ATR p60
15m ↓ down late 10b — 3.45×ATR p76 -2.152×ATR p93

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.9204
  3. reason: down_bo width=2.71×ATR dur=40b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 61.21768824
  5. tp_price: 56.32927939
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.92035190754023
  8. expires_at: 2026-10-01T14:13:15.467377
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.92035190754023
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
    5. ¸
  5. market_structures
    6. ¸
  6. market_structure_v2
    7. ¸
  7. trend_analyzer_1h
    8. ¸
  8. orderbook_context
  9. obi_top5 : -0.1948
  10. obi_top10 : -0.0322
  11. micro_price : 59.95862191
  12. spread_pct : 0.033361
  13. mid_price : 59.96
  14. bid_wall_price : 59.7
  15. bid_wall_size : 2497.09
  16. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  17. ask_wall_price :
  18. ask_wall_size :
  19. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  20. snapshots_count : 5
  21. obi_top5_mean : -0.0598
  22. obi_top5_std : 0.0755
  23. pressure_side : neutral
  24. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  25. collection_ms : 6948
  26. aggregation_tick : 0.1
  27. error :
    28. ¸
  28. strategy_details
  29. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  30. strategy_details
  31. balance_zone_top: 
    62.268
  32. balance_zone_bottom: 
    60
  33. balance_zone_mid: 
    61.134
  34. balance_zone_start_time: 
    1790679600
  35. balance_zone_end_time: 
    1790820000
  36. balance_zone_width_atr: 
    2.7101
  37. balance_zone_duration_bars: 
    40
  38. balance_zone_quality: tight
  39. balance_zone_maturity: established
  40. balance_zone_confidence: 
    0.9204
  41. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  42. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  43. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  44. balance_zone_breakout_time: 
    1790816400
  45. balance_zone_breakout_price: 
    60
  46. strategy_details
  47. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio: 
    0.9
  48. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout: 
    1
  49. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr: 
    0.2139
  50. balance_metrics_has_retested: 
    1
  51. balance_metrics_retest_count: 
    1
  52. balance_metrics_touch_upper: 
    5
  53. balance_metrics_touch_lower: 
    12
  54. regime : bear_high
  55. atr_entry : 0.83688243
    56. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
40
inside_close_ratio
0.9
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.2139

Signaux confirmants (6)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 22:13 59.82100000 0%
2 22:24 59.82100000 0%
3 22:34 59.82100000 0%
4 22:44 59.91800000 +0.162%
5 22:54 59.91800000 +0.162%
6 23:05 59.91800000 +0.162%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 6948ms Confidence avant OB : 92% → 92%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.195
avg -0.060 ± 0.076
OBI Top 10 -0.032

Microstructure

Mid Price
59.9600
Micro Price
59.9586
Spread
0.0334%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
59.7000
Size
2,497.09

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
59.821 61.2177 56.3293 2.5 54.297
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 59.821
  • Stop Loss: 61.2177
  • Take Profit: 56.3293

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 61.2177 - 59.821 = 1.3967

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 59.821 - 56.3293 = 3.4917

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 3.4917 / 1.3967 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
342.6448 100 5.7278 3.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 1.3967

Taille de position = 8 / 1.3967 = 5.73

Taille de position USD = 5.73 x 59.821 = 342.77

Donc, tu peux acheter 5.73 avec un stoploss a 61.2177

Avec un position size USD de 342.77$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 5.73 x 1.3967 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 5.73 x 3.4917 = 20.01

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.01$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 5.73
  • Taille de position USD 342.77
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20.01
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
5.84 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
2.33 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
7.36 $ 2.15
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-1.8606 % 79.69 % 6
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
59.821 61.2177 56.3293 2.5 54.297
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 59.821
  • Stop Loss: 61.2177
  • Take Profit: 56.3293

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 61.2177 - 59.821 = 1.3967

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 59.821 - 56.3293 = 3.4917

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 3.4917 / 1.3967 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.335% (1.3967)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.455% 0.2R -0.893% 0.4R 0.5× 12
2h +0.455% 0.2R -1.541% 0.7R 0.3× 24
4h +0.455% 0.2R -1.861% 0.8R 0.2× 48
8h +1.807% 0.8R -1.861% 0.8R 1.0× 96
12h ★ +2.501% 1.1R -1.861% 0.8R 1.3× 144
24h +3.166% 1.4R -1.861% 0.8R 1.7× 288
36h +3.166% 1.4R -1.861% 0.8R 1.7× 432
48h +7.293% 3.1R -1.861% 0.8R 3.9× 576
72h +7.293% 3.1R -1.861% 0.8R 3.9× 864
⏱ MFE in 881 min MAE in 156 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 2 days ago

Commentaires

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