01 Oct 2026 at 00:20:09 hyperliquid

Long Trade on TRUMP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 77.37 TRUMP at 2.158$ per unit. Take profit: 2.4163 (11.98 %) & Stop Loss: 2.0544 (4.79 %)

TRUMP LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 01 Oct 2026 00:20 → 03:40 · 3 hours

Position

Entry 2.1578$

Qty 77.3708 TRUMP

Size 166.9508$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 2.4163 (+11.98%)

TP $ 20$

SL 2.0544 (-4.79%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -4.79% / -8$ MAE -6.43% MFE +0.63% 0.1R expires 01 Oct 12:20

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 168872)
#2 / 77 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 00:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.6170

Quality Score
0.746
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
87 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
7.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 00:17

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 168872)
#2 / 77 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 00:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.6170

Quality Score
0.746
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#2 / 77 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
87 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.79 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#2 / 77 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
87 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.79 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Supply Distance (ATR)
1h clear 0.89×ATR
4h near -0.42×ATR
1d clear 3.87×ATR
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down late OK
4h ↑ up late BLOCKED
1d ↓ down mid OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
7.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 00:17
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3)

29/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high_confirmed (+2)

30/09 20:00

Tactical (1H) : bull_high_confirmed (+1)

30/09 23:00

Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4522
bull developing bull_consolidation
Strategic bull

0.90

expansion

+2

Operational range

0.25

range

0

Tactical range

0.25

range

0

Micro range

0.25

compression

MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) +2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 80.3%
Macro broad_risk_on
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Legacy leadership : alts
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 27.9%
1h 31.2%
4h 85.3%
24h 75.4%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 29.5% -0.15%
4h 72.1% +0.64%
24h 63.9% +1.28%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : 0.119
Universe : 61 · ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence : 0.75
Snapshot évalué : 01/10 00:16 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 30/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3571
Score SMA
0.3759
Rank
#76 / 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0000
Rank Norm SMA
0.0192
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.5229 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 1.32% · r3d: -3.40% · ema21_slope: 0.0390% · dist_ema21: -1.181%
Force Relative 25% 0.4396 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 1.33% · rs_3d: -2.42% · beta_24h: 1.511
Volume 20% 0.1817 rvol_20: 0.56× · zscore_50: -0.418 · trend: -60.66%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.3598 ADX: 18.5 (weak) · Chop: 74.6 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 8.610% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 01/10/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.7460
Score SMA
0.5191
Rank
#2 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6170
Rank Norm SMA
0.4322
Calculé le
01/10/2026 00:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6487 r1h: -3.109% · r4h: 6.164% · r1d: 6.00% · r3d: 6.97% · ema21_slope: 0.0863% · dist_ema21: 4.707%
Force Relative 25% 0.6217 rs_1h: -3.427% · rs_4h: 6.013% · rs_1d: 5.44% · rs_3d: 6.44% · beta_24h: 0.710
Volume 20% 1.0000 rvol_20: 6.73× · zscore_50: 4.997 · trend: 337.99%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6360 ADX: 16.3 (weak) · Chop: 27.5 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.137% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 01/10/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.7631
Score SMA
0.4907
Rank
#3 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6868
Rank Norm SMA
0.2599
Calculé le
01/10/2026 00:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6964 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 6.164% · r1d: 6.00% · r3d: 6.97% · ema21_slope: 0.0246% · dist_ema21: 5.655%
Force Relative 25% 0.8165 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 6.013% · rs_1d: 5.44% · rs_3d: 6.44% · beta_24h: 1.953
Volume 20% 0.9122 rvol_20: 5.67× · zscore_50: 2.004 · trend: 83.95%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6269 ADX: 16.6 (weak) · Chop: 39.6 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.8631 ATR%: 3.411% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -4.792% (0.1034)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.482% 0.1R -1.071% 0.2R 0.5× 12
2h +0.482% 0.1R -1.084% 0.2R 0.4× 24
4h +0.635% 0.1R -6.094% 1.3R 0.1× 48
8h +0.635% 0.1R -6.428% 1.3R 0.1× 96
12h ★ +0.635% 0.1R -6.428% 1.3R 0.1× 143
24h +0.635% 0.1R -6.428% 1.3R 0.1× 288
36h +2.614% 0.6R -6.428% 1.3R 0.4× 432
48h +2.614% 0.6R -8.356% 1.7R 0.3× 576
72h +2.614% 0.6R -8.356% 1.7R 0.3× 864
⏱ MFE in 1929 min MAE in 344 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 3 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.44
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral range range strong balanced compression bull_high
51%
noisy_chop 34% mid — — 0.47 bull_high +12.59% -0.31 29/09 20:00
4h ↔ neutral range range moderate fading volatile_reversal bull_high_confirmed
49%
noisy_chop 35% late — near -0.4ATR 0.31 bull_high +1.65% +0.30 30/09 20:00
1h ↑ up range range moderate balanced expansion_after_compression bull_high_confirmed
64%
noisy_chop 40% late — — 0.50 range_medium -0.04% +0.54 30/09 23:00
15m ↑ up transition bullish_transition strong explosive volatile_reversal bull_high_confirmed
60%
noisy_chop 46% mid — — 0.44 range_low +0.05% +0.49 30/09 23:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#187714
↔ neutral range range strong balanced 0.536 compression bull_high
51%
noisy_chop 34% mid 32b -0.2ATR — — 0.56 54% ↔ +0.13 value -1.31 — #101611 0.47 bull_high +12.59% -0.31
29/09 20:00
upd 30/09 20:25
4h
#189313
↔ neutral range range moderate fading 0.403 volatile_reversal bull_high_confirmed
49%
noisy_chop 35% late 12b 1.6ATR — near -0.4ATR 5.67 96% ↑ +0.15 above_value +1.58 — #102310 0.31 bull_high +1.65% +0.30
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 00:17
1h anchor
#189311
↑ up range range moderate balanced 0.667 expansion_after_compression bull_high_confirmed
64%
noisy_chop 40% late 1b 2.1ATR — — 6.73 99% ↑ +0.42 above_value +1.58 — #102310 0.50 range_medium -0.04% +0.54
30/09 23:00
upd 01/10 00:17
15m
#189165
↑ up transition bullish_transition strong explosive 0.866 volatile_reversal bull_high_confirmed
60%
noisy_chop 46% mid 4b 1.7ATR — — 0.29 88% ↑ +0.96 above_value +3.30 — #102154 0.44 range_low +0.05% +0.49
30/09 23:45
upd 01/10 00:03
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down mid 32b — 5.747×ATR p50 -0.152×ATR p4
4h ↑ up late 12b — 3.35×ATR p43 +1.623×ATR p84
1h ↓ down late 1b — 1.602×ATR p3 +2.057×ATR p93
15m ↓ down mid 4b — 2.92×ATR p67 +1.706×ATR p75

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: 1
  2. confidence: 0.8652
  3. reason: up_bo width=2.16×ATR dur=39b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(+0.07)
  4. stop_price: 2.05440185
  5. tp_price: 2.41629539
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.79517214946277
  8. expires_at: 2026-10-01T16:20:01.326340
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.79517214946277
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : 0.1734
  14. obi_top10 : 0.1027
  15. micro_price : 2.14113814
  16. spread_pct : 0.046707
  17. mid_price : 2.1415
  18. bid_wall_price : 2.14
  19. bid_wall_size : 439012.62
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price : 2.16
  22. ask_wall_size : 315307.22
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : 0.176
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.0017
  27. pressure_side : bid
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 7116
  30. aggregation_tick : 0.01
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    2.10725
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    2.0105
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    2.058875
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1790690400
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1790827200
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    2.1629
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    39
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: established
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.7952
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1790820000
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    2.10725
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.9231
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    2
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    1.1301
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    
                                                                                                                                
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    0
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    5
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    5
  59. regime : bull_high
  60. atr_entry : 0.04473154
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
39
inside_close_ratio
0.9231
bars_since_breakout
2
distance_to_edge_atr
1.1301

Signaux confirmants (18)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 00:20 2.15780000 0%
2 00:31 2.15780000 0%
3 00:42 2.16400000 +0.287%
4 00:52 2.16400000 +0.287%
5 01:03 2.16400000 +0.287%
6 01:14 2.14840000 -0.436%
7 01:25 2.14840000 -0.436%
8 01:36 2.14840000 -0.436%
9 01:47 2.14870000 -0.422%
10 01:57 2.14870000 -0.422%
11 02:11 2.15340000 -0.204%
12 02:23 2.15340000 -0.204%
13 02:34 2.15340000 -0.204%
14 02:45 2.16390000 +0.283%
15 02:55 2.16390000 +0.283%
16 03:07 2.16390000 +0.283%
17 03:18 2.14410000 -0.635%
18 03:30 2.14410000 -0.635%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

↑ bid ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7116ms Confidence avant OB : 80% → 87%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.173
avg 0.176 ± 0.002
OBI Top 10 0.103

Microstructure

Mid Price
2.1415
Micro Price
2.1411
Spread
0.0467%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
2.1400
Size
439,012.62

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
2.1600
Size
315,307.22

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
2.1578 2.0544 2.4163 2.5 1.6775
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 2.1578
  • Stop Loss: 2.0544
  • Take Profit: 2.4163

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 2.0544 - 2.1578 = -0.1034

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 2.1578 - 2.4163 = -0.2585

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.2585 / -0.1034 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
166.9508 100 77.3708 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss -0.1034

Taille de position = 8 / -0.1034 = -77.37

Taille de position USD = -77.37 x 2.1578 = -166.95

Donc, tu peux acheter -77.37 avec un stoploss a 2.0544

Avec un position size USD de -166.95$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -77.37 x -0.1034 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -77.37 x -0.2585 = 20

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$

Résumé

  • Taille de position -77.37
  • Taille de position USD -166.95
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
11.98 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
4.79 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
-8 $ -4.79
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-4.9773 % 103.87 % 6
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
2.1578 2.0544 2.4163 2.5 1.6775
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 2.1578
  • Stop Loss: 2.0544
  • Take Profit: 2.4163

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 2.0544 - 2.1578 = -0.1034

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 2.1578 - 2.4163 = -0.2585

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.2585 / -0.1034 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 2.4163
            [entry_price] => 2.1578
            [stop_loss] => 2.04406
            [rr_ratio] => 2.27
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-01 07:40:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 2.4163
            [entry_price] => 2.1578
            [stop_loss] => 2.03372
            [rr_ratio] => 2.08
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-01 07:40:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 2.4163
            [entry_price] => 2.1578
            [stop_loss] => 2.02338
            [rr_ratio] => 1.92
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-01 10:05:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -4.792% (0.1034)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.482% 0.1R -1.071% 0.2R 0.5× 12
2h +0.482% 0.1R -1.084% 0.2R 0.4× 24
4h +0.635% 0.1R -6.094% 1.3R 0.1× 48
8h +0.635% 0.1R -6.428% 1.3R 0.1× 96
12h ★ +0.635% 0.1R -6.428% 1.3R 0.1× 143
24h +0.635% 0.1R -6.428% 1.3R 0.1× 288
36h +2.614% 0.6R -6.428% 1.3R 0.4× 432
48h +2.614% 0.6R -8.356% 1.7R 0.3× 576
72h +2.614% 0.6R -8.356% 1.7R 0.3× 864
⏱ MFE in 1929 min MAE in 344 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 3 days ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.