Short Trade on CHIP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 4861.57 CHIP at 0.0428$ per unit. Take profit: 0.03873 (9.61 %) & Stop Loss: 0.04449 (3.83 %)
01 Oct 2026 at 04:22:29
hyperliquid
CHIP
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
01 Oct 2026 04:22
→ 16:20
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.04285$
Qty 4861.5669 CHIP
Size 208.3036$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.03873 (+9.61%)
TP $ 20.03$
SL 0.04449 (-3.83%)
SL $ 7.97$
RR 2.51
Status
loss
PnL
-0.02%
/ -0.039$
MAE -0.98%
MFE +4.09%
1.1R
expires
01 Oct 16:22
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 169276)
#77 / 78
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 04:00
score du 01/10/2026 04:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3237
Quality Score
0.382
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 04:17
01/10 04:17
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 169276)
#77 / 78
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 04:00
score du 01/10/2026 04:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3237
Quality Score
0.382
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#77 / 78
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-2
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#77 / 78
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-2
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.99×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.70×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 2.46×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
2.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 04:17
01/10 04:17
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 29/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/10 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 01/10 03:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 4538
bull
developing
bull_consolidation
| Strategic |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
-2 |
| Operational |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
1.00
Transition risk :
0.00
Score contribution (this trade)
-2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
15.5%
Macro
btc_led_risk_on
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 41.4% |
| 1h | 41.4% |
| 4h | 8.6% |
| 24h | 41.4% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 43.1% | -0.15% |
| 4h | 24.1% | -1.53% |
| 24h | 31.0% | -0.58% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
0.144
Universe :
58
· ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence :
0.75
Snapshot évalué :
01/10 04:16
· env trend_consolidation
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4160
Score SMA
0.4970
Rank
#73
/ 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0400
Rank Norm SMA
0.1583
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6122 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -1.72% · r3d: -7.18% · ema21_slope: 0.3920% · dist_ema21: -3.299% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4710 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.71% · rs_3d: -6.20% · beta_24h: 2.694 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1933 | rvol_20: 0.65× · zscore_50: -0.716 · trend: -37.50% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5065 | ADX: 23.8 (weak) · Chop: 62.0 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 12.949% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
01/10/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.3823
Score SMA
0.5281
Rank
#77
/ 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3237
Rank Norm SMA
0.4277
Calculé le
01/10/2026 04:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2892 | r1h: -2.682% · r4h: -2.131% · r1d: -3.19% · r3d: -2.68% · ema21_slope: -0.1157% · dist_ema21: -1.939% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3186 | rs_1h: -1.841% · rs_4h: -1.719% · rs_1d: -3.35% · rs_3d: -3.24% · beta_24h: 1.799 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2020 | rvol_20: 0.48× · zscore_50: -0.310 · trend: -33.00% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3571 | ADX: 13.0 (weak) · Chop: 69.2 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.817% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
01/10/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.4244
Score SMA
0.4721
Rank
#68
/ 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1115
Rank Norm SMA
0.2231
Calculé le
01/10/2026 04:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3365 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -2.131% · r1d: -3.19% · r3d: -2.68% · ema21_slope: -0.2274% · dist_ema21: -3.550% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4044 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.719% · rs_1d: -3.35% · rs_3d: -3.24% · beta_24h: 2.956 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2085 | rvol_20: 0.66× · zscore_50: -0.614 · trend: -32.02% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3712 | ADX: 11.4 (weak) · Chop: 65.9 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.6153 | ATR%: 4.154% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.827%
(0.0016)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.840% | 0.2R | -0.810% | 0.2R | 1.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.900% | 0.5R | -0.810% | 0.2R | 2.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.900% | 0.5R | -0.810% | 0.2R | 2.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +4.089% | 1.1R | -0.810% | 0.2R | 5.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +4.089% | 1.1R | -0.980% | 0.3R | 4.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +4.089% | 1.1R | -3.853% | 1.0R | 1.1× | 288 |
| 36h | +4.089% | 1.1R | -7.153% | 1.9R | 0.6× | 432 |
| 48h | +4.089% | 1.1R | -7.153% | 1.9R | 0.6× | 576 |
| 72h | +4.089% | 1.1R | -7.153% | 1.9R | 0.6× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 407 min
MAE in 1747 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 6 days ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 4.31
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | — | — | — | bull_high | +12.59% | -0.90 | 29/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early | near -0.7ATR | — | 0.37 | bull_high | +1.21% | -0.61 | 01/10 00:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 44% | mid | near -1.0ATR | — | 0.38 | range_medium | -0.47% | -0.42 | 01/10 03:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | fading | expansion_after_compression | bear_medium |
57%
|
noisy_chop 37% | late | near 0.4ATR | — | 0.61 | range_low | -0.52% | -0.12 | 01/10 04:00 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#187777
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.654 | compression | bull_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early 14b -0.3ATR | — | — | 0.65 | 57% | ↓ -0.19 | below_value | -6.64 | — | #101632 | — | bull_high | +12.59% | -0.90 |
29/09 20:00
upd 30/09 20:27
|
|
4h
#191011
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.521 | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early 4b -0.9ATR | near -0.7ATR | — | 0.66 | 15% | ↔ +0.01 | below_value | -7.58 | — | #103031 | 0.37 | bull_high | +1.21% | -0.61 |
01/10 00:00
upd 01/10 04:19
|
|
1h
anchor #191010
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.525 | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 44% | mid 1b -1.3ATR | near -1.0ATR | — | 0.48 | 43% | ↓ -0.75 | below_value | -7.58 | — | #103031 | 0.38 | range_medium | -0.47% | -0.42 |
01/10 03:00
upd 01/10 04:19
|
|
15m
#191056
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | fading | 0.462 | expansion_after_compression | bear_medium |
57%
|
noisy_chop 37% | late 6b -2.3ATR | near 0.4ATR | — | 0.48 | 48% | ↔ +0.07 | below_value | -7.58 | — | #103031 | 0.61 | range_low | -0.52% | -0.12 |
01/10 04:00
upd 01/10 04:21
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early | 14b | — | 1.456×ATR | p0 | -0.265×ATR | p13 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 4b | — | 2.123×ATR | p9 | -0.932×ATR | p53 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 1b | — | 1.821×ATR | p24 | -1.289×ATR | p68 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 6b | — | 0×ATR | p0 | -2.287×ATR | p96 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8174
- reason: down_bo width=2.32×ATR dur=45b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.04449256
- tp_price: 0.03873309
- atr:
- score: 0.8173934927268
- expires_at: 2026-10-01T20:22:21.942678
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.8173934927268
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0149
- obi_top10 : -0.0262
- micro_price : 0.04271776
- spread_pct : 0.093677
- mid_price : 0.04272
- bid_wall_price : 0.0426
- bid_wall_size : 760205.8
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.043
- ask_wall_size : 761796
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0072
- obi_top5_std : 0.0218
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7063
- aggregation_tick : 0.0001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.045276
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.0435615
- balance_zone_mid:
0.04441875
- balance_zone_start_time:
1790683200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1790841600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.3228
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
45
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8174
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1790838000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.0435615
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6667
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.968
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
4
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
10
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00073813 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
45
inside_close_ratio
0.6667
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.968
Signaux confirmants (15)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:22 | 0.04284700 | -0.007% |
| 2 | 04:33 | 0.04284700 | -0.007% |
| 3 | 04:44 | 0.04274700 | -0.24% |
| 4 | 04:54 | 0.04274700 | -0.24% |
| 5 | 05:05 | 0.04274700 | -0.24% |
| 6 | 05:16 | 0.04309200 | +0.565% |
| 7 | 05:26 | 0.04309200 | +0.565% |
| 8 | 05:37 | 0.04298200 | +0.308% |
| 9 | 05:47 | 0.04298200 | +0.308% |
| 10 | 05:57 | 0.04298200 | +0.308% |
| 11 | 06:44 | 0.04244500 | -0.945% |
| 12 | 06:55 | 0.04244500 | -0.945% |
| 13 | 07:07 | 0.04244500 | -0.945% |
| 14 | 08:18 | 0.04264900 | -0.469% |
| 15 | 08:30 | 0.04264900 | -0.469% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7063ms
Confidence avant OB :
82%
→
82%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.015
avg -0.007
± 0.022
OBI Top 10
-0.026
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0427
Micro Price
0.0427
Spread
0.0937%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.0426
Size
760,205.80
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.0430
Size
761,796.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.04285 | 0.04449 | 0.03873 | 2.51 | 0.05211 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.04285
- Stop Loss: 0.04449
- Take Profit: 0.03873
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.04449 - 0.04285 = 0.00164
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.04285 - 0.03873 = 0.00412
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00412 / 0.00164 = 2.5122
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 208.3036 | 100 | 4861.5669 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00164
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00164 = 4878.05
Taille de position USD = 4878.05 x 0.04285 = 209.02
Donc, tu peux acheter 4878.05 avec un stoploss a 0.04449
Avec un position size USD de 209.02$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 4878.05 x 0.00164 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 4878.05 x 0.00412 = 20.1
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.1$
Résumé
- Taille de position 4878.05
- Taille de position USD 209.02
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.1
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5122
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 9.61 % | 20.03 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.83 % | 7.97 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -0.039 $ | -0.02 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.9802 % | 25.61 % | 16 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.04285 | 0.04449 | 0.03873 | 2.51 | 0.05211 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.04285
- Stop Loss: 0.04449
- Take Profit: 0.03873
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.04449 - 0.04285 = 0.00164
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.04285 - 0.03873 = 0.00412
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00412 / 0.00164 = 2.5122
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.827%
(0.0016)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.840% | 0.2R | -0.810% | 0.2R | 1.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.900% | 0.5R | -0.810% | 0.2R | 2.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.900% | 0.5R | -0.810% | 0.2R | 2.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +4.089% | 1.1R | -0.810% | 0.2R | 5.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +4.089% | 1.1R | -0.980% | 0.3R | 4.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +4.089% | 1.1R | -3.853% | 1.0R | 1.1× | 288 |
| 36h | +4.089% | 1.1R | -7.153% | 1.9R | 0.6× | 432 |
| 48h | +4.089% | 1.1R | -7.153% | 1.9R | 0.6× | 576 |
| 72h | +4.089% | 1.1R | -7.153% | 1.9R | 0.6× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 407 min
MAE in 1747 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 6 days ago
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