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Short Trade on ZEC

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01 Oct 2026 at 07:17:06 hyperliquid

Short Trade on ZEC (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 0.22 ZEC at 1387.8$ per unit. Take profit: 1297.6934 (6.49 %) & Stop Loss: 1423.8426 (2.6 %)

ZEC SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 01 Oct 2026 07:17 → 19:10 · 11 hours

Position

Entry 1387.8$

Qty 0.222 ZEC

Size 308.0352$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)

Risk Setup

TP 1297.6934 (+6.49%)

TP $ 20$

SL 1423.8426 (-2.6%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status win PnL +3.57% / +11.01$ MAE -1.89% MFE +5.93% 2.3R expires 01 Oct 19:16 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 169578)
#46 / 78 OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 07:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1705

Quality Score
0.462
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
100 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
430.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 07:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 169578)
#46 / 78 OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 07:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1705

Quality Score
0.462
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#46 / 78 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-2 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.60 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#46 / 78 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-2 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.60 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h near -0.37×ATR
4h clear 0.55×ATR
1d clear 7.03×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down early OK
4h ↑ up early OK
1d ↓ down early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
430.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 07:02
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

29/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

01/10 00:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

01/10 06:00

Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4550
bull developing bull_consolidation
Strategic bull

0.90

expansion

-2

Operational range

0.25

range

0

Tactical range

0.25

range

0

Micro range

0.25

range

MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) -2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 23.7%
Macro btc_led_risk_on
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Legacy leadership : btc
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 14.5%
1h 8.1%
4h 35.5%
24h 27.4%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 14.5% -0.27%
4h 14.5% -0.60%
24h 29.0% -1.47%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : 0.152
Universe : 62 · ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence : 0.75
Snapshot évalué : 01/10 07:16 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 30/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5215
Score SMA
0.6038
Rank
#54 / 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2933
Rank Norm SMA
0.4279
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6620 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 1.55% · r3d: -9.44% · ema21_slope: 1.7273% · dist_ema21: 3.443%
Force Relative 25% 0.5548 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 1.56% · rs_3d: -8.45% · beta_24h: 1.271
Volume 20% 0.3384 rvol_20: 0.75× · zscore_50: 0.033 · trend: 22.59%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7770 ADX: 54.6 (trend) · Chop: 60.2 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 9.176% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 01/10/2026 07:00
Score brut
0.4620
Score SMA
0.5126
Rank
#46 / 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1705
Rank Norm SMA
0.3889
Calculé le
01/10/2026 07:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3311 r1h: -0.471% · r4h: -3.119% · r1d: -2.63% · r3d: -10.34% · ema21_slope: -0.0449% · dist_ema21: -1.860%
Force Relative 25% 0.2806 rs_1h: -0.691% · rs_4h: -2.920% · rs_1d: -2.69% · rs_3d: -11.54% · beta_24h: 1.639
Volume 20% 0.6715 rvol_20: 2.62× · zscore_50: 0.919 · trend: 2.89%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4557 ADX: 13.9 (weak) · Chop: 58.0 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.764% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 01/10/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.3451
Score SMA
0.5113
Rank
#75 / 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0261
Rank Norm SMA
0.3389
Calculé le
01/10/2026 04:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3086 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -1.186% · r1d: -0.38% · r3d: -8.68% · ema21_slope: -0.4015% · dist_ema21: -3.190%
Force Relative 25% 0.3596 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.774% · rs_1d: -0.53% · rs_3d: -9.24% · beta_24h: 2.723
Volume 20% 0.1581 rvol_20: 0.40× · zscore_50: -0.862 · trend: -38.31%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4085 ADX: 16.8 (weak) · Chop: 66.9 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.6972 ATR%: 3.909% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.597% (36.0426)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.793% 0.3R -1.744% 0.7R 0.5× 12
2h +0.793% 0.3R -1.888% 0.7R 0.4× 24
4h +1.751% 0.7R -1.888% 0.7R 0.9× 48
8h +5.303% 2.0R -1.888% 0.7R 2.8× 96
12h ★ +5.930% 2.3R -1.888% 0.7R 3.1× 144
24h +5.930% 2.3R -1.888% 0.7R 3.1× 288
36h +8.380% 3.2R -1.888% 0.7R 4.4× 432
48h +8.380% 3.2R -1.888% 0.7R 4.4× 576
72h +8.380% 3.2R -1.888% 0.7R 4.4× 864
⏱ MFE in 1887 min MAE in 82 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 2.37
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up early_expansion bullish_transition moderate grind expansion bull_high
72%
noisy_chop 38% early — — 0.56 bull_high +12.59% +0.96 29/09 20:00
4h ↓ down range range moderate grind normal bear_high
54%
noisy_chop 38% early — — 0.54 bull_high +1.21% -0.79 01/10 00:00
1h ↓ down range range moderate balanced compression bear_high
59%
noisy_chop 38% early near -0.4ATR — 0.45 range_medium +0.18% -0.26 01/10 06:00
15m ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong explosive volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
51%
noisy_chop 39% mid near -0.9ATR — 0.71 range_low +0.20% -0.25 01/10 06:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#187750
 ↑ up early_expansion bullish_transition moderate grind 0.705 expansion bull_high
72%
noisy_chop 38% early 4b 0.3ATR — — 0.75 86% ↔ +0.12 value -4.03 — #101623 0.56 bull_high +12.59% +0.96
29/09 20:00
upd 30/09 20:26
4h
#190981
 ↓ down range range moderate grind 0.389 normal bear_high
54%
noisy_chop 38% early 12b -0.8ATR — — 0.40 27% ↓ -0.41 below_value -5.54 — #103021 0.54 bull_high +1.21% -0.79
01/10 00:00
upd 01/10 04:18
1h anchor
#192150
 ↓ down range range moderate balanced 0.576 compression bear_high
59%
noisy_chop 38% early 4b -1.2ATR near -0.4ATR — 2.62 82% ↓ -0.37 below_value -6.43 — #103574 0.45 range_medium +0.18% -0.26
01/10 06:00
upd 01/10 07:11
15m
#192070
 ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong explosive 0.401 volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
51%
noisy_chop 39% mid 3b -1.3ATR near -0.9ATR — 0.83 63% ↑ +0.23 below_value -6.21 — #103416 0.71 range_low +0.20% -0.25
01/10 06:45
upd 01/10 07:03
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down early 4b — 1.942×ATR p0 +0.331×ATR p15
4h ↑ up early 12b — 0.921×ATR p0 -0.776×ATR p48
1h ↓ down early 4b — 2.236×ATR p35 -1.231×ATR p58
15m ↑ up mid 3b — 2.083×ATR p17 -1.293×ATR p77

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.9996
  3. reason: down_bo width=2.25×ATR dur=40b phase=fresh|ob:ask_pressure(+0.07)|ob:obi_strong(+0.08)
  4. stop_price: 1423.84263065
  5. tp_price: 1297.69342337
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.84960615163756
  8. expires_at: 2026-10-01T23:16:58.649467
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.84960615163756
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
    5. ¸
  5. market_structures
    6. ¸
  6. market_structure_v2
    7. ¸
  7. trend_analyzer_1h
    8. ¸
  8. orderbook_context
  9. obi_top5 : -0.634
  10. obi_top10 : -0.634
  11. micro_price : 1386.8066335
  12. spread_pct : 0.000721
  13. mid_price : 1386.805
  14. bid_wall_price :
  15. bid_wall_size :
  16. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  17. ask_wall_price :
  18. ask_wall_size :
  19. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  20. snapshots_count : 5
  21. obi_top5_mean : -0.6369
  22. obi_top5_std : 0.0059
  23. pressure_side : ask
  24. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  25. collection_ms : 7026
  26. aggregation_tick : 10
  27. error :
    28. ¸
  28. strategy_details
  29. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  30. strategy_details
  31. balance_zone_top: 
    1447.8
  32. balance_zone_bottom: 
    1395.2
  33. balance_zone_mid: 
    1421.5
  34. balance_zone_start_time: 
    1790712000
  35. balance_zone_end_time: 
    1790852400
  36. balance_zone_width_atr: 
    2.2453
  37. balance_zone_duration_bars: 
    40
  38. balance_zone_quality: tight
  39. balance_zone_maturity: established
  40. balance_zone_confidence: 
    0.8496
  41. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  42. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  43. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  44. balance_zone_breakout_time: 
    1790848800
  45. balance_zone_breakout_price: 
    1395.2
  46. strategy_details
  47. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio: 
    0.85
  48. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout: 
    1
  49. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr: 
    0.3159
  50. balance_metrics_has_retested: 
    1
  51. balance_metrics_retest_count: 
    1
  52. balance_metrics_touch_upper: 
    5
  53. balance_metrics_touch_lower: 
    8
  54. regime : bear_high
  55. atr_entry : 23.42630651
    56. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
40
inside_close_ratio
0.85
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.3159

Signaux confirmants (20)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 07:17 1387.80000000 0%
2 07:28 1387.80000000 0%
3 07:39 1388.10000000 +0.022%
4 07:50 1388.10000000 +0.022%
5 08:02 1388.10000000 +0.022%
6 09:15 1388.30000000 +0.036%
7 09:26 1388.30000000 +0.036%
8 09:38 1396.20000000 +0.605%
9 09:49 1396.20000000 +0.605%
10 10:00 1396.20000000 +0.605%
11 11:11 1373.40000000 -1.038%
12 11:23 1373.40000000 -1.038%
13 11:34 1373.40000000 -1.038%
14 11:46 1373.90000000 -1.002%
15 11:58 1373.90000000 -1.002%
16 12:13 1380.70000000 -0.512%
17 12:26 1380.70000000 -0.512%
18 12:37 1371.30000000 -1.189%
19 12:48 1371.30000000 -1.189%
20 12:59 1371.30000000 -1.189%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

↓ ask ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7026ms Confidence avant OB : 85% → 100%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.634
avg -0.637 ± 0.006
OBI Top 10 -0.634

Microstructure

Mid Price
1,386.8050
Micro Price
1,386.8066
Spread
0.0007%

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
1387.8 1423.8426 1297.6934 2.5 1308.1
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 1387.8
  • Stop Loss: 1423.8426
  • Take Profit: 1297.6934

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 1423.8426 - 1387.8 = 36.0426

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 1387.8 - 1297.6934 = 90.1066

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 90.1066 / 36.0426 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
308.0352 100 0.222 3.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 36.0426

Taille de position = 8 / 36.0426 = 0.22

Taille de position USD = 0.22 x 1387.8 = 305.32

Donc, tu peux acheter 0.22 avec un stoploss a 1423.8426

Avec un position size USD de 305.32$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 0.22 x 36.0426 = 7.93

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.93$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 0.22 x 90.1066 = 19.82

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.82$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 0.22
  • Taille de position USD 305.32
  • Perte potentielle 7.93
  • Gain potentiel 19.82
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
6.49 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
2.6 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
11.01 $ 3.57
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-1.8879 % 72.69 % 13
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
1387.8 1423.8426 1297.6934 2.5 1308.1
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 1387.8
  • Stop Loss: 1423.8426
  • Take Profit: 1297.6934

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 1423.8426 - 1387.8 = 36.0426

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 1387.8 - 1297.6934 = 90.1066

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 90.1066 / 36.0426 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.597% (36.0426)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.793% 0.3R -1.744% 0.7R 0.5× 12
2h +0.793% 0.3R -1.888% 0.7R 0.4× 24
4h +1.751% 0.7R -1.888% 0.7R 0.9× 48
8h +5.303% 2.0R -1.888% 0.7R 2.8× 96
12h ★ +5.930% 2.3R -1.888% 0.7R 3.1× 144
24h +5.930% 2.3R -1.888% 0.7R 3.1× 288
36h +8.380% 3.2R -1.888% 0.7R 4.4× 432
48h +8.380% 3.2R -1.888% 0.7R 4.4× 576
72h +8.380% 3.2R -1.888% 0.7R 4.4× 864
⏱ MFE in 1887 min MAE in 82 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.