Short Trade on AVAX (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 104.66 AVAX at 6.361$ per unit. Take profit: 6.1701 (3 %) & Stop Loss: 6.4376 (1.2 %)
01 Aug 2026 at 10:12:36
hyperliquid
AVAX
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
01 Aug 2026 10:12
→ 14:45
· 4 hours
Position
Entry 6.3612$
Qty 104.6627 AVAX
Size 665.7803$ (margin 100$) (leverage 7)
Risk Setup
TP 6.1701 (+3%)
TP $ 20$
SL 6.4376 (-1.2%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+3.00%
/ +20$
MAE -0.39%
MFE +5.08%
4.2R
expires
01 Aug 22:12
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 55623)
#27 / 40
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/08/2026 10:00
score du 01/08/2026 10:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3753
Quality Score
0.471
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
2
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.0M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/08 10:00
01/08 10:00
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 55623)
#27 / 40
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/08/2026 10:00
score du 01/08/2026 10:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3753
Quality Score
0.471
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#27 / 40
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.20 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#27 / 40
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.20 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.98×ATR |
| 4h | near | 0.32×ATR |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
2.0M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/08 10:00
01/08 10:00
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 31/07 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/08 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1) 01/08 09:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1214
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
— |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
bear
— |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
— |
transition
0 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.60
Transition risk :
0.40
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.51
Snapshot évalué :
01/08 10:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
01/08/2026 10:00
Score brut
0.4708
Score SMA
0.4839
Rank
#27
/ 40
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3753
Rank Norm SMA
0.3649
Calculé le
01/08/2026 10:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4838 | r1h: 0.003% · r4h: 0.055% · r1d: -0.57% · r3d: -0.74% · ema21_slope: -0.0445% · dist_ema21: -0.570% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5135 | rs_1h: 0.041% · rs_4h: 0.020% · rs_1d: -0.23% · rs_3d: 1.71% · beta_24h: 0.373 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1534 | rvol_20: 0.10× · zscore_50: -0.699 · trend: -52.18% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4439 | ADX: 11.3 (weak) · Chop: 56.8 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.558% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.201%
(0.0764)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.203% | 0.2R | -0.153% | 0.1R | 1.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.203% | 0.2R | -0.387% | 0.3R | 0.5× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.242% | 1.0R | -0.387% | 0.3R | 3.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +5.078% | 4.2R | -0.387% | 0.3R | 13.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +5.078% | 4.2R | -0.387% | 0.3R | 13.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +5.078% | 4.2R | -5.021% | 4.2R | 1.0× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 80
ML Pullback Score: 4.11
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mature_trend | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | — | — | 0.77 | bear_high | -6.36% | +0.01 | 31/07 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | weak | grind | compression | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 32% | early | near 0.3ATR | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -1.67% | +0.13 | 01/08 08:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_medium |
59%
|
noisy_chop 45% | mid | — | — | 0.64 | bear_low | -1.15% | -0.15 | 01/08 09:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | grind | compression | range_low |
43%
|
noisy_chop 43% | early | — | near -0.4ATR | — | range_low | -0.24% | -0.03 | 01/08 09:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 28b | — | 2.814×ATR | p13 | -0.436×ATR | p50 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 9b | — | 2.004×ATR | p0 | -0.368×ATR | p39 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 8b | — | 2.83×ATR | p64 | -0.449×ATR | p49 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 13b | — | 0×ATR | p0 | +0.279×ATR | p30 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8227
- reason: down_bo width=2.43×ATR dur=36b phase=extending
- stop_price: 6.43763602
- tp_price: 6.17010996
- atr:
- score: 0.82273377815555
- expires_at: 2026-08-02T02:12:28.819423
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.82273377815555
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0659
- obi_top10 : -0.0932
- micro_price : 6.34785768
- spread_pct : 0.015755
- mid_price : 6.3475
- bid_wall_price : 6.25
- bid_wall_size : 134115.3
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 6.4
- ask_wall_size : 111234.44
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0651
- obi_top5_std : 0.0012
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6934
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
6.47515
- balance_zone_bottom:
6.3934
- balance_zone_mid:
6.434275
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785466800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785592800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.4323
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
36
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8227
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: extending
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785567600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
6.3934
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6389
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
7
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.958
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
5
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
14
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.03361018 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
36
inside_close_ratio
0.6389
bars_since_breakout
7
distance_to_edge_atr
0.958
Signaux confirmants (29)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:12 | 6.36120000 | 0% |
| 2 | 10:18 | 6.35440000 | -0.107% |
| 3 | 10:24 | 6.35440000 | -0.107% |
| 4 | 10:30 | 6.35440000 | -0.107% |
| 5 | 10:36 | 6.35530000 | -0.093% |
| 6 | 10:42 | 6.35530000 | -0.093% |
| 7 | 10:48 | 6.35920000 | -0.031% |
| 8 | 10:54 | 6.35920000 | -0.031% |
| 9 | 11:01 | 6.35920000 | -0.031% |
| 10 | 11:06 | 6.36490000 | +0.058% |
| 11 | 11:12 | 6.36490000 | +0.058% |
| 12 | 11:18 | 6.37090000 | +0.152% |
| 13 | 11:24 | 6.37090000 | +0.152% |
| 14 | 11:30 | 6.37090000 | +0.152% |
| 15 | 11:36 | 6.35980000 | -0.022% |
| 16 | 11:42 | 6.35980000 | -0.022% |
| 17 | 11:48 | 6.36780000 | +0.104% |
| 18 | 11:54 | 6.36780000 | +0.104% |
| 19 | 12:00 | 6.36780000 | +0.104% |
| 20 | 12:06 | 6.38230000 | +0.332% |
| 21 | 12:12 | 6.38230000 | +0.332% |
| 22 | 12:18 | 6.37480000 | +0.214% |
| 23 | 12:24 | 6.37480000 | +0.214% |
| 24 | 12:30 | 6.37480000 | +0.214% |
| 25 | 12:36 | 6.36760000 | +0.101% |
| 26 | 12:42 | 6.36760000 | +0.101% |
| 27 | 12:48 | 6.36070000 | -0.008% |
| 28 | 12:54 | 6.36070000 | -0.008% |
| 29 | 13:00 | 6.36070000 | -0.008% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6934ms
Confidence avant OB :
82%
→
82%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.066
avg 0.065
± 0.001
OBI Top 10
-0.093
Microstructure
Mid Price
6.3475
Micro Price
6.3479
Spread
0.0158%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
6.2500
Size
134,115.30
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
6.4000
Size
111,234.44
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3612 | 6.4376 | 6.1701 | 2.5 | 8.9232 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 6.3612
- Stop Loss: 6.4376
- Take Profit: 6.1701
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 6.4376 - 6.3612 = 0.0764
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 6.3612 - 6.1701 = 0.1911
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1911 / 0.0764 = 2.5013
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 665.7803 | 100 | 104.6627 | 7.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0764
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0764 = 104.71
Taille de position USD = 104.71 x 6.3612 = 666.08
Donc, tu peux acheter 104.71 avec un stoploss a 6.4376
Avec un position size USD de 666.08$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 104.71 x 0.0764 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 104.71 x 0.1911 = 20.01
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.01$
Résumé
- Taille de position 104.71
- Taille de position USD 666.08
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.01
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5013
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.2 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 20 $ | 3.00 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.3867 % | 32.2 % | 9 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3612 | 6.4376 | 6.1701 | 2.5 | 8.9232 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 6.3612
- Stop Loss: 6.4376
- Take Profit: 6.1701
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 6.4376 - 6.3612 = 0.0764
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 6.3612 - 6.1701 = 0.1911
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1911 / 0.0764 = 2.5013
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
[2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 6.2084
[stop_loss] => 6.4376
[rr_ratio] => 2
[closed_at] => 2026-08-01 18:40:00+00
[result] => win
)
[2.5] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 6.1702
[stop_loss] => 6.4376
[rr_ratio] => 2.5
[closed_at] => 2026-08-01 18:45:00+00
[result] => win
)
[3] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 6.132
[stop_loss] => 6.4376
[rr_ratio] => 3
[closed_at] => 2026-08-01 18:45:00+00
[result] => win
)
[3.5] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 6.0938
[stop_loss] => 6.4376
[rr_ratio] => 3.5
[closed_at] => 2026-08-01 18:45:00+00
[result] => win
)
[4] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 6.0556
[stop_loss] => 6.4376
[rr_ratio] => 4
[closed_at] => 2026-08-01 18:45:00+00
[result] => win
)
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.201%
(0.0764)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.203% | 0.2R | -0.153% | 0.1R | 1.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.203% | 0.2R | -0.387% | 0.3R | 0.5× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.242% | 1.0R | -0.387% | 0.3R | 3.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +5.078% | 4.2R | -0.387% | 0.3R | 13.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +5.078% | 4.2R | -0.387% | 0.3R | 13.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +5.078% | 4.2R | -5.021% | 4.2R | 1.0× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
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