Short Trade on XPL (CatchTheWave)
With 29506.14 XPL at 0.0761$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07554 (0.71 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07635 (0.35 %)
Short Trade on XPL (CatchTheWave)
With 29506.14 XPL at 0.0761$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07554 (0.71 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07635 (0.35 %)
Position
Entry 0.07608$
Qty 29506.141 XPL
Size 2244.8862$ (margin 100$) (leverage 22)
Risk Setup
TP 0.07554 (+0.71%)
TP $ 15.93$
SL 0.07635 (-0.35%)
SL $ 7.97$
RR 2
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3170
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.47×ATR |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | 0.32×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bear_low_vol rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 2 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : bear_low (+1) 01/08 20:00 Score : +2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.619007 15m : 0.44101 |
1H_regime : bear_high 15m_regime : bull_medium 5m_regime : bull_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 01/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 01/08 20:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4974 | r1h: -0.529% · r4h: 1.351% · r1d: 2.21% · r3d: -2.56% · ema21_slope: -0.0632% · dist_ema21: 0.075% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5192 | rs_1h: -0.520% · rs_4h: 0.879% · rs_1d: 2.30% · rs_3d: -0.74% · beta_24h: 1.614 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1523 | rvol_20: 0.06× · zscore_50: -0.716 · trend: -53.30% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5811 | ADX: 16.9 (weak) · Chop: 45.6 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.269% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.174% | 0.5R | -1.521% | 4.3R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.174% | 0.5R | -1.746% | 4.9R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.174% | 0.5R | -1.763% | 5.0R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.174% | 0.5R | -1.763% | 5.0R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.500% | 1.4R | -1.763% | 5.0R | 0.3× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late | near 0.3ATR | — | 0.53 | bear_high | -6.42% | -0.95 | 01/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | — | — | 0.40 | bear_high | -1.85% | -0.08 | 01/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 37% | mid | near 0.5ATR | — | 0.49 | bear_low | -1.18% | +0.08 | 01/08 20:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bull_medium |
64%
|
noisy_chop 52% | late | — | — | 0.44 | range_low | -0.19% | +0.16 | 01/08 20:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 29b | — | 6.378×ATR | p82 | -0.501×ATR | p37 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 5b | — | 1.125×ATR | p0 | +0.104×ATR | p12 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 6b | — | 3.278×ATR | p67 | +0.486×ATR | p46 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 4b | — | 2.166×ATR | p24 | +1.337×ATR | p88 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
62772.6
0.000595212
62810
0.619007
62864.3
-0.000737446
62818
0.44101
63523.6
-0.0109188
62830
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193
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0.2062
0.4879
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0.0731
0.5523
0.251
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0.6667
0.8088
0.2075
0.3
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6
1
0.6392
0.4221
4.9811
0.5
1.1001
4.5401
0.2075
0.2326
0.38
0
-0.1903
0.3894
0.5809
0.6471
0.251
-11.7317
3.9323
1
0
0
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20:57 | 0.07608200 | +0.003% |
| 2 | 21:04 | 0.07632700 | +0.325% |
Market Structure Score: 1
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 18:30:00 | 0.072515 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 19:00:00 | 0.074447 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 20:25:00 | 0.074591 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 20:40:00 | 0.074068 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 21:35:00 | 0.075631 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 22:15:00 | 0.075237 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 23:00:00 | 0.075667 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 23:20:00 | 0.075097 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 23:50:00 | 0.075059 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 00:55:00 | 0.07618 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 06:45:00 | 0.077847 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 11:00:00 | 0.076782 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 12:00:00 | 0.074897 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 14:00:00 | 0.075574 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 14:30:00 | 0.07465 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 16:30:00 | 0.075326 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 18:30:00 | 0.072515 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 21:30:00 | 0.075631 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 23:45:00 | 0.075059 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 00:45:00 | 0.075939 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 21:00:00 | 0.075347 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-30 02:00:00 | 0.079092 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-30 07:00:00 | 0.073907 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-30 13:00:00 | 0.076513 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-30 17:00:00 | 0.074819 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-31 01:00:00 | 0.078731 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-31 22:00:00 | 0.073 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 06:00:00 | 0.077847 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 18:00:00 | 0.072515 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 00:00:00 | 0.075899 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07608 | 0.07635 | 0.07554 | 2 | 0.07601 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07635 - 0.07608 = 0.00027000000000001
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07608 - 0.07554 = 0.00054
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00054 / 0.00027000000000001 = 2
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2244.8862 | 100 | 29506.141 | 22.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00027000000000001 = 29629.63
Taille de position USD = 29629.63 x 0.07608 = 2254.22
Donc, tu peux acheter 29629.63 avec un stoploss a 0.07635
Avec un position size USD de 2254.22$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 29629.63 x 0.00027000000000001 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 29629.63 x 0.00054 = 16
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 16$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.71 % | 15.93 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.35 % | 7.97 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -7.97 $ | -0.35 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.397 % | 111.86 % | 1 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07608 | 0.07635 | 0.07554 | 2 | 0.07601 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07635 - 0.07608 = 0.00027000000000001
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07608 - 0.07554 = 0.00054
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00054 / 0.00027000000000001 = 2
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.174% | 0.5R | -1.521% | 4.3R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.174% | 0.5R | -1.746% | 4.9R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.174% | 0.5R | -1.763% | 5.0R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.174% | 0.5R | -1.763% | 5.0R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.500% | 1.4R | -1.763% | 5.0R | 0.3× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
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