Short Trade on AVAX (CatchTheWave)
With 406.75 AVAX at 6.329$ per unit. Take profit: 6.2892 (0.62 %) & Stop Loss: 6.3482 (0.31 %)
Short Trade on AVAX (CatchTheWave)
With 406.75 AVAX at 6.329$ per unit. Take profit: 6.2892 (0.62 %) & Stop Loss: 6.3482 (0.31 %)
Position
Entry 6.3285$
Qty 406.7453 AVAX
Size 2574.0874$ (margin 100$) (leverage 26)
Risk Setup
TP 6.2892 (+0.62%)
TP $ 15.99$
SL 6.3482 (-0.31%)
SL $ 8.01$
RR 1.99
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3084
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | near | 0.00×ATR |
| 1d | clear | — |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | late | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : range rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : bull_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 01/08 23:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.742863 15m : 0.379657 |
1H_regime : bear_high 15m_regime : bull_low 5m_regime : bull_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 01/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 01/08 23:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | expansion | — | +1 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5327 | r1h: 1.552% · r4h: 2.155% · r1d: -1.50% · r3d: -2.65% · ema21_slope: -0.1457% · dist_ema21: 0.710% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5274 | rs_1h: 0.920% · rs_4h: 1.255% · rs_1d: -2.02% · rs_3d: -1.42% · beta_24h: 2.866 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4424 | rvol_20: 1.35× · zscore_50: 0.546 · trend: 3.06% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7195 | ADX: 26.3 (trend) · Chop: 22.4 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.813% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.215% | 0.7R | -0.251% | 0.8R | 0.9× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.215% | 0.7R | -3.345% | 10.8R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.215% | 0.7R | -5.564% | 17.9R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.215% | 0.7R | -5.564% | 17.9R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.215% | 0.7R | -5.564% | 17.9R | 0.0× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mature_trend | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 36% | mid | — | — | 0.77 | bear_high | -6.42% | -0.47 | 01/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | bear_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early | near 0.0ATR | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -1.02% | -0.02 | 01/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | expansion | bear_high |
65%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late | — | near 0.3ATR | 0.59 | range_low | -0.25% | -0.13 | 01/08 23:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bull_low |
48%
|
choppy 49% | late | — | near 0.5ATR | — | range_low | +0.64% | +0.15 | 01/08 23:00 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 29b | — | 3.368×ATR | p31 | -0.711×ATR | p69 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 2b | — | 2.555×ATR | p28 | +0.156×ATR | p16 |
| 1h | ↑ up | late | 9b | — | 5.966×ATR | p97 | +1.35×ATR | p89 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 3b | — | 0.277×ATR | p0 | +2.489×ATR | p97 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
62938.6
0.0070124
63380
0.742863
62949.1
0.00684374
63380
0.379657
63507.5
-0.00163075
63404
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6.0382
190
0.3462
0.8178
0.3099
0.2548
0.355
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0.4917
0.3012
0.76
0.8251
0.4919
-0.0395
-0.0727
0.3333
1.12
-0.1192
0.45
0.55
-1
9
1
0.4904
0.9062
6.563
0.6
5.3069
10.4173
-0.1192
0
0.2492
0.6
0.3854
0.594
0.5714
0.7839
0.4919
-5.8986
5.7096
1
0
0
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (4)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23:18 | 6.32850000 | 0% |
| 2 | 23:24 | 6.33390000 | +0.085% |
| 3 | 23:30 | 6.32720000 | -0.021% |
| 4 | 23:48 | 6.33060000 | +0.033% |
Market Structure Score: 1
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 19:50:00 | 6.1397 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 20:00:00 | 6.1059 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 20:20:00 | 6.1517 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 22:30:00 | 6.2058 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 23:25:00 | 6.1782 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 00:15:00 | 6.1805 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 01:30:00 | 6.2252 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 02:05:00 | 6.2115 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 02:20:00 | 6.3412 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 03:10:00 | 6.3391 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 03:30:00 | 6.3948 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 05:30:00 | 6.4476 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 07:00:00 | 6.4221 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 08:00:00 | 6.3453 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 10:00:00 | 6.3203 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 12:00:00 | 6.3233 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 16:00:00 | 6.3858 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 18:45:00 | 6.0382 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 22:30:00 | 6.2058 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 02:15:00 | 6.3412 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 01:00:00 | 6.5418 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-31 07:00:00 | 6.3934 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-31 11:00:00 | 6.5206 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-31 14:00:00 | 6.3318 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-31 23:00:00 | 6.3783 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 05:00:00 | 6.4476 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 10:00:00 | 6.3203 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 16:00:00 | 6.3858 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 18:00:00 | 6.0382 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 02:00:00 | 6.3412 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3285 | 6.3482 | 6.2892 | 1.99 | 9.378 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 6.3482 - 6.3285 = 0.0197
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 6.3285 - 6.2892 = 0.0393
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0393 / 0.0197 = 1.9949
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2574.0874 | 100 | 406.7453 | 26.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0197 = 406.09
Taille de position USD = 406.09 x 6.3285 = 2569.94
Donc, tu peux acheter 406.09 avec un stoploss a 6.3482
Avec un position size USD de 2569.94$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 406.09 x 0.0197 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 406.09 x 0.0393 = 15.96
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 15.96$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.62 % | 15.99 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.31 % | 8.01 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.01 $ | -0.31 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5709 % | 825.86 % | 7 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3285 | 6.3482 | 6.2892 | 1.99 | 9.378 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 6.3482 - 6.3285 = 0.0197
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 6.3285 - 6.2892 = 0.0393
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0393 / 0.0197 = 1.9949
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.215% | 0.7R | -0.251% | 0.8R | 0.9× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.215% | 0.7R | -3.345% | 10.8R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.215% | 0.7R | -5.564% | 17.9R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.215% | 0.7R | -5.564% | 17.9R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.215% | 0.7R | -5.564% | 17.9R | 0.0× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
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