Short Trade on AAVE (CatchTheWave)
With 22.54 AAVE at 92.587$ per unit. Take profit: 91.8773 (0.77 %) & Stop Loss: 92.9419 (0.38 %)
Short Trade on AAVE (CatchTheWave)
With 22.54 AAVE at 92.587$ per unit. Take profit: 91.8773 (0.77 %) & Stop Loss: 92.9419 (0.38 %)
Position
Entry 92.587$
Qty 22.5436 AAVE
Size 2087.2486$ (margin 100$) (leverage 21)
Risk Setup
TP 91.8773 (+0.77%)
TP $ 16$
SL 92.9419 (-0.38%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2050
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | 0.92×ATR |
| 1d | near | -0.89×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : range rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : bull_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 02/08 00:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.523751 15m : 0.451608 |
1H_regime : bear_high 15m_regime : bull_medium 5m_regime : bull_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 01/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 02/08 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 02/08 00:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | expansion | — | +1 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4729 | r1h: 0.147% · r4h: 1.776% · r1d: -0.41% · r3d: -4.12% · ema21_slope: -0.1087% · dist_ema21: 0.758% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4758 | rs_1h: 0.066% · rs_4h: 0.674% · rs_1d: -1.22% · rs_3d: -3.10% · beta_24h: 1.541 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1709 | rvol_20: 0.24× · zscore_50: -0.652 · trend: -39.26% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7766 | ADX: 43.8 (trend) · Chop: 49.2 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.996% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.476% | 1.2R | -0.111% | 0.3R | 4.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.939% | 2.5R | -0.111% | 0.3R | 8.4× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.939% | 2.5R | -0.193% | 0.5R | 4.9× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.564% | 4.1R | -0.193% | 0.5R | 8.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.941% | 5.1R | -0.193% | 0.5R | 10.0× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | near -0.9ATR | — | 0.72 | bear_high | -6.42% | -0.48 | 01/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 43% | mid | — | — | 0.53 | bear_high | -0.86% | -0.32 | 02/08 00:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
64%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late | — | near -1.4ATR | 0.54 | range_low | -0.06% | +0.08 | 02/08 00:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bull_medium |
60%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | — | — | — | bull_low | +0.79% | +0.06 | 02/08 00:00 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | mid | 15b | — | 0.593×ATR | p0 | -0.697×ATR | p67 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 13b | — | 4.649×ATR | p76 | -0.151×ATR | p15 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 9b | — | 0×ATR | p0 | +1.194×ATR | p86 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 7b | — | 0.543×ATR | p0 | +0.859×ATR | p66 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
63044.6
0.0072864
63504
0.523751
62981.8
0.0082901
63504
0.451608
63473.7
0.000791937
63524
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91.001
190
0.2999
0.561
0.4347
0.248
0.5875
0.5907
0.3531
0.614
0.1991
0.1823
0.6082
0.2752
0.0444
-0.0764
0.3333
1.2356
-0.7657
0.25
0.75
-1
10
1
0.504
0.4994
3.1562
0.6
0.5907
1.8643
-0.7657
0.5576
0.2521
0.12
-0.1346
0.4717
0.5657
0.6364
0.2752
-11.4884
4.3618
1
1
1
Signal Details
Market Structure Score: 0
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 23:05:00 | 90.757 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 23:25:00 | 90.414 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 00:05:00 | 90.952 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 00:20:00 | 90.445 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 01:10:00 | 91.224 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 02:15:00 | 92.624 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 02:40:00 | 91.784 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 03:00:00 | 92.478 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 03:30:00 | 91.855 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 04:15:00 | 92.677 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 08:15:00 | 91.421 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 10:00:00 | 90.215 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 12:15:00 | 91.769 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 12:45:00 | 90.94 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 14:30:00 | 92.247 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 18:45:00 | 89.203 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 19:45:00 | 91.001 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 20:30:00 | 88.989 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 02:15:00 | 92.624 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 04:15:00 | 92.677 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 11:00:00 | 96.775 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-29 18:00:00 | 100.63 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-30 00:00:00 | 94.024 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-30 16:00:00 | 100.49 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-30 21:00:00 | 98.62 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-31 01:00:00 | 101.5 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 10:00:00 | 90.215 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 14:00:00 | 92.247 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 20:00:00 | 88.989 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 02:00:00 | 92.624 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92.587 | 92.9419 | 91.8773 | 2 | 149.53 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 92.9419 - 92.587 = 0.3549
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 92.587 - 91.8773 = 0.7097
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.7097 / 0.3549 = 1.9997
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2087.2486 | 100 | 22.5436 | 21.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 0.3549 = 22.54
Taille de position USD = 22.54 x 92.587 = 2086.91
Donc, tu peux acheter 22.54 avec un stoploss a 92.9419
Avec un position size USD de 2086.91$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 22.54 x 0.3549 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 22.54 x 0.7097 = 16
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 16$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.77 % | 16 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.38 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 16 $ | 0.77 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.1112 % | 29.01 % | 3 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92.587 | 92.9419 | 91.8773 | 2 | 149.53 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 92.9419 - 92.587 = 0.3549
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 92.587 - 91.8773 = 0.7097
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.7097 / 0.3549 = 1.9997
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Array
(
)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.476% | 1.2R | -0.111% | 0.3R | 4.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.939% | 2.5R | -0.111% | 0.3R | 8.4× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.939% | 2.5R | -0.193% | 0.5R | 4.9× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.564% | 4.1R | -0.193% | 0.5R | 8.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.941% | 5.1R | -0.193% | 0.5R | 10.0× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
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