Long Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 380408.94 PENGU at 0.00607$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006108 (0.69 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006045 (0.35 %)
Long Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 380408.94 PENGU at 0.00607$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006108 (0.69 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006045 (0.35 %)
Position
Entry 0.006066$
Qty 380408.9396 PENGU
Size 2307.5606$ (margin 100$) (leverage 23)
Risk Setup
TP 0.006108 (+0.69%)
TP $ 15.98$
SL 0.006045 (-0.35%)
SL $ 7.99$
RR 2
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5787
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -1.26×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.51×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.54×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : range rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (-1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 02/08 02:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.400327 15m : 0.382271 |
1H_regime : bull_high_confirmed 15m_regime : bull_medium 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 01/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 02/08 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high_confirmed (+1) 02/08 01:00 Score : -2 / ±6 |
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | expansion | — | -1 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5343 | r1h: -0.164% · r4h: 0.462% · r1d: 1.81% · r3d: 4.55% · ema21_slope: 0.0394% · dist_ema21: 1.371% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5605 | rs_1h: 0.102% · rs_4h: -0.216% · rs_1d: 1.19% · rs_3d: 5.51% · beta_24h: 1.097 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3384 | rvol_20: 0.16× · zscore_50: -0.465 · trend: 77.03% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6890 | ADX: 22.7 (weak) · Chop: 28.6 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.939% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.264% | 0.8R | -0.132% | 0.4R | 2.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.692% | 2.0R | -0.132% | 0.4R | 5.3× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.692% | 2.0R | -0.132% | 0.4R | 5.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +3.083% | 8.9R | -0.544% | 1.6R | 5.7× | 96 |
| 12h | +3.083% | 8.9R | -0.544% | 1.6R | 5.7× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | pullback | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | near -1.2ATR | — | 0.75 | bear_high | -6.42% | +0.17 | 01/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | normal | range_high |
42%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | — | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -0.87% | +0.57 | 02/08 00:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | balanced | expansion | bull_high_confirmed |
63%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | — | near -1.3ATR | 0.56 | range_low | -0.26% | +0.15 | 02/08 01:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bull_medium |
54%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | — | — | — | range_low | +0.51% | +0.11 | 02/08 01:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 29b | — | 2.98×ATR | p22 | -0.138×ATR | p12 |
| 4h | ↑ up | mid | 3b | — | 1.8×ATR | p0 | +0.652×ATR | p62 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 2b | — | 2.031×ATR | p30 | +0.776×ATR | p71 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 10b | — | 0.031×ATR | p0 | -0.269×ATR | p31 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
63226.1
0.00369787
63460
0.400327
63058.2
0.00637154
63460
0.382271
63478.3
-0.00058793
63441
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0.006201
196
0.6807
0.6318
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0.4611
0.4746
0.7978
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0.0861
1
1.4442
1.8416
0.35
0.65
1
3
0.9474
0.564
0.5317
6.3463
0.55
1.052
6.6763
1.8416
0.2892
0.359
0.36
0.0677
0.4161
0.4606
0
0.7978
-2.0889
8.2427
1
0
0
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (4)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:09 | 0.00606600 | 0% |
| 2 | 02:15 | 0.00606800 | +0.033% |
| 3 | 02:57 | 0.00606500 | -0.016% |
| 4 | 03:04 | 0.00606000 | -0.099% |
Market Structure Score: 0
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 01:30:00 | 0.006073 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 02:40:00 | 0.006146 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 03:05:00 | 0.006085 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 03:20:00 | 0.006201 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 04:05:00 | 0.006083 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 04:40:00 | 0.006084 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 05:15:00 | 0.00608 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 05:25:00 | 0.00613 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 05:35:00 | 0.00608 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 06:05:00 | 0.006066 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 14:30:00 | 0.005905 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 16:30:00 | 0.005975 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 18:30:00 | 0.005857 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 20:45:00 | 0.005863 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 21:45:00 | 0.005945 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 22:15:00 | 0.005945 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 23:45:00 | 0.005917 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 03:15:00 | 0.006201 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 05:15:00 | 0.00613 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 06:00:00 | 0.006066 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 13:00:00 | 0.005903 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-30 22:00:00 | 0.006168 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-31 03:00:00 | 0.005978 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-31 07:00:00 | 0.006125 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-31 13:00:00 | 0.006117 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-31 14:00:00 | 0.005936 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 04:00:00 | 0.006184 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 16:00:00 | 0.005975 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 18:00:00 | 0.005857 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 03:00:00 | 0.006201 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006066 | 0.006045 | 0.006108 | 2 | 0.007485 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006045 - 0.006066 = -2.1E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006066 - 0.006108 = -4.2E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -4.2E-5 / -2.1E-5 = 2
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2307.5606 | 100 | 380408.9396 | 23.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / -2.1E-5 = -380952.38
Taille de position USD = -380952.38 x 0.006066 = -2310.86
Donc, tu peux acheter -380952.38 avec un stoploss a 0.006045
Avec un position size USD de -2310.86$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -380952.38 x -2.1E-5 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -380952.38 x -4.2E-5 = 16
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 16$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.69 % | 15.98 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.35 % | 7.99 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 15.98 $ | 0.69 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.1319 % | 38.1 % | 4 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006066 | 0.006045 | 0.006108 | 2 | 0.007485 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006045 - 0.006066 = -2.1E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006066 - 0.006108 = -4.2E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -4.2E-5 / -2.1E-5 = 2
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.264% | 0.8R | -0.132% | 0.4R | 2.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.692% | 2.0R | -0.132% | 0.4R | 5.3× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.692% | 2.0R | -0.132% | 0.4R | 5.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +3.083% | 8.9R | -0.544% | 1.6R | 5.7× | 96 |
| 12h | +3.083% | 8.9R | -0.544% | 1.6R | 5.7× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
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