Long Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 609291.7 PENGU at 0.00607$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006092 (0.43 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006053 (0.21 %)
Long Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 609291.7 PENGU at 0.00607$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006092 (0.43 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006053 (0.21 %)
Position
Entry 0.006066$
Qty 609291.6984 PENGU
Size 3695.9634$ (margin 100$) (leverage 37)
Risk Setup
TP 0.006092 (+0.43%)
TP $ 15.84$
SL 0.006053 (-0.21%)
SL $ 7.92$
RR 2
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6883
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -1.44×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.52×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.14×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : range rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (-1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 02/08 06:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.480543 15m : 0.41895 |
1H_regime : bull_high 15m_regime : range_low 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 01/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 02/08 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 02/08 05:00 Score : -2 / ±6 |
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | expansion | — | -1 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5522 | r1h: -0.016% · r4h: -0.230% · r1d: 2.10% · r3d: 4.57% · ema21_slope: 0.1080% · dist_ema21: 0.902% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5721 | rs_1h: -0.143% · rs_4h: 0.065% · rs_1d: 1.75% · rs_3d: 6.58% · beta_24h: 0.931 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1996 | rvol_20: 0.06× · zscore_50: -0.546 · trend: -22.99% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7185 | ADX: 26.2 (trend) · Chop: 30.1 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.858% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.280% | 1.3R | -0.544% | 2.5R | 0.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.846% | 8.6R | -0.544% | 2.5R | 3.4× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +3.083% | 14.4R | -0.544% | 2.5R | 5.7× | 48 |
| 8h | +3.083% | 14.4R | -0.544% | 2.5R | 5.7× | 96 |
| 12h | +3.380% | 15.8R | -0.544% | 2.5R | 6.2× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | pullback | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
62%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | near -0.8ATR | — | 0.75 | bear_high | -5.71% | +0.28 | 01/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | compression | range_high |
42%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | — | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -1.37% | +0.54 | 02/08 04:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bull_high |
62%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | — | near -1.4ATR | 0.55 | range_low | -0.47% | +0.19 | 02/08 05:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | compression | bull_low |
43%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | — | — | — | range_low | +0.15% | +0.03 | 02/08 05:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 29b | — | 2.506×ATR | p0 | +0.144×ATR | p12 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 4b | — | 1.881×ATR | p0 | +0.565×ATR | p57 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 6b | — | 2.165×ATR | p35 | +0.36×ATR | p43 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 8b | — | 1.227×ATR | p3 | -0.365×ATR | p40 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
63317
-0.00120114
63241
0.480543
63139
0.00161441
63241
0.41895
63558.6
-0.00493548
63245
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0.006201
193
0.6721
0.6493
0.335
0.2219
0.4275
1
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0.5402
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0.5181
0.583
0.7869
0.1435
0.0746
1
1.0417
1.6192
0.35
0.65
1
6
0.9474
0.6087
0.5317
6.3463
0.6
1.052
6.6763
1.6192
0.2892
0.3532
0.3
0.2071
0.4192
0.4665
0.7041
0.7869
-2.3231
8.5776
1
0
0
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (3)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:04 | 0.00606600 | 0% |
| 2 | 06:15 | 0.00605700 | -0.148% |
| 3 | 06:27 | 0.00603600 | -0.495% |
Market Structure Score: 0
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 05:15:00 | 0.00608 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 05:25:00 | 0.00613 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 05:35:00 | 0.00608 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 06:05:00 | 0.006066 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 07:00:00 | 0.006058 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 07:30:00 | 0.006108 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 08:10:00 | 0.006106 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 09:05:00 | 0.006064 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 09:10:00 | 0.006099 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 10:00:00 | 0.006066 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 18:30:00 | 0.005857 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 20:45:00 | 0.005863 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 21:45:00 | 0.005945 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 22:15:00 | 0.005945 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 23:45:00 | 0.005917 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 03:15:00 | 0.006201 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 05:15:00 | 0.00613 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 07:00:00 | 0.006058 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 07:30:00 | 0.006108 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 09:00:00 | 0.006064 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 13:00:00 | 0.005903 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-30 22:00:00 | 0.006168 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-31 03:00:00 | 0.005978 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-31 07:00:00 | 0.006125 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-31 13:00:00 | 0.006117 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-31 14:00:00 | 0.005936 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 04:00:00 | 0.006184 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 16:00:00 | 0.005975 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 18:00:00 | 0.005857 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 03:00:00 | 0.006201 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006066 | 0.006053 | 0.006092 | 2 | 0.007774 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006053 - 0.006066 = -1.3E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006066 - 0.006092 = -2.6E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -2.6E-5 / -1.3E-5 = 2
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3695.9634 | 100 | 609291.6984 | 37.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / -1.3E-5 = -615384.62
Taille de position USD = -615384.62 x 0.006066 = -3732.92
Donc, tu peux acheter -615384.62 avec un stoploss a 0.006053
Avec un position size USD de -3732.92$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -615384.62 x -1.3E-5 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -615384.62 x -2.6E-5 = 16
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 16$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.43 % | 15.84 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.21 % | 7.92 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -7.92 $ | -0.21 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.4781 % | 223.1 % | 3 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006066 | 0.006053 | 0.006092 | 2 | 0.007774 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006053 - 0.006066 = -1.3E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006066 - 0.006092 = -2.6E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -2.6E-5 / -1.3E-5 = 2
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.280% | 1.3R | -0.544% | 2.5R | 0.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.846% | 8.6R | -0.544% | 2.5R | 3.4× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +3.083% | 14.4R | -0.544% | 2.5R | 5.7× | 48 |
| 8h | +3.083% | 14.4R | -0.544% | 2.5R | 5.7× | 96 |
| 12h | +3.380% | 15.8R | -0.544% | 2.5R | 6.2× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
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