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Short Trade on KAITO

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02 Aug 2026 at 12:10:04 hyperliquid

Short Trade on KAITO (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 90.13 KAITO at 1.089$ per unit. Take profit: 1.0617 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 1.1777 (8.16 %)

KAITO SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 02 Aug 2026 12:10 → 12:20 · 9 minutes

Position

Entry 1.0889$

Qty 90.1316 KAITO

Size 98.1443$ (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 1.0617 (+2.5%)

TP $ 2.45$

SL 1.1777 (-8.16%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.31

Status win PnL +0.47% / +0.46$ MAE -2.86% MFE +4.91% 0.6R expires 02 Aug 12:20 Exit rank_decay: short rank=19 <= threshold=28/38

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 56580)
#19 / 38 OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/08/2026 12:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.5850

Quality Score
0.527
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
100 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
1 OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
15.3M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/08 12:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#19 / 38 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-3 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
8.16 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#19 / 38 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-3 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
8.16 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear 0.88×ATR
4h clear 1.18×ATR
1d clear 3.65×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down late BLOCKED
4h ↓ down late BLOCKED
1d ↓ down early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : range

rules_regime : bear_low

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 1

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : range_high (0)

Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1)

Tactical (1H) : range_low (0)

02/08 12:00

Score : +1

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (-3)

01/08 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

02/08 08:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

02/08 11:00

Score : -4 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 1240
range compression range_breakdown_risk
Strategic range compression — 0
Operational bear transition — +1
Tactical range compression — 0
Micro — —
MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 0.57
Transition risk : 0.43
Score contribution (this trade) +1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score —
Impulse : —
% Positive (universe)
15m —
1h —
4h —
24h —
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m — —
4h — —
24h — —
Dispersion : —
Universe : —
Regime confidence : 0.49
Snapshot évalué : 02/08 12:00 · env range_with_pressure

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1H
Calculé le 02/08/2026 12:00
Score brut
0.5271
Score SMA
0.6104
Rank
#19 / 38
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5850
Rank Norm SMA
0.6885
Calculé le
02/08/2026 12:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.2887 r1h: -0.698% · r4h: -12.269% · r1d: -6.12% · r3d: -5.36% · ema21_slope: -0.1197% · dist_ema21: -7.248%
Force Relative 25% 0.2360 rs_1h: -0.836% · rs_4h: -12.464% · rs_1d: -6.36% · rs_3d: -2.95% · beta_24h: -2.828
Volume 20% 0.9190 rvol_20: 2.51× · zscore_50: 2.969 · trend: 137.99%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6867 ADX: 22.4 (weak) · Chop: 35.0 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.9469 ATR%: 3.159% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 4h) Initial Risk: -8.155% (0.0888)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.883% 0.2R -2.856% 0.4R 0.7× 12
2h +2.893% 0.4R -2.856% 0.4R 1.0× 24
4h ★ +4.913% 0.6R -2.856% 0.4R 1.7× 48
8h +9.793% 1.2R -2.856% 0.4R 3.4× 96
12h +11.076% 1.4R -2.856% 0.4R 3.9× 144

computed 2 months ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 2.42
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind volatile_reversal bull_high_confirmed
61%
noisy_chop 39% early — — 0.43 bear_high -6.16% +1.00 01/08 20:00
4h ↔ neutral range range moderate fading normal bull_high
52%
noisy_chop 39% late — — 0.03 bear_high -1.46% -0.75 02/08 08:00
1h ↔ neutral range range strong fading expansion bear_high_confirmed
50%
noisy_chop 48% late — — -0.12 range_low -0.57% -0.89 02/08 11:00
15m ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong fading expansion bear_high_confirmed
56%
choppy 51% early near 0.4ATR — — range_low +0.03% -0.80 02/08 11:45
5m —

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down early 4b — 1.223×ATR p0 +0.41×ATR p36
4h ↓ down late 5b — 2.372×ATR p11 -1.241×ATR p88
1h ↓ down late 4b — 4.78×ATR p88 -2.161×ATR p96
15m ↓ down early 4b — 1.299×ATR p7 -0.501×ATR p38

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 1.17765912
  2. tp_price: 1.0616775
  3. atr: 0.03550365
  4. expires_at: 2026-08-02T22:10:04+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 38
  2. total: 38
  3. score: 0.2887
  4. delta_2h: -0.0777
  5. extension_atr: -1.67
  6. trend_phase:
  7. trend_direction:
  8. rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.585
  9. confidence: 1

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
1.0889 1.1777 1.0617 0.31 0.3081
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 1.0889
  • Stop Loss: 1.1777
  • Take Profit: 1.0617

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 1.1777 - 1.0889 = 0.0888

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 1.0889 - 1.0617 = 0.0272

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0272 / 0.0888 = 0.3063

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
98.1443 98.1443 90.1316 1.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.0888

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0888 = 90.09

Taille de position USD = 90.09 x 1.0889 = 98.1

Donc, tu peux acheter 90.09 avec un stoploss a 1.1777

Avec un position size USD de 98.1$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 90.09 x 0.0888 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 90.09 x 0.0272 = 2.45

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 2.45$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 90.09
  • Taille de position USD 98.1
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 2.45
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 0.3063

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
2.5 % 2.45 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
8.16 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
0.46 $ 0.47
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-1.1112 % 13.63 % 2
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
1.0889 1.1777 1.0617 0.31 0.3081
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 1.0889
  • Stop Loss: 1.1777
  • Take Profit: 1.0617

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 1.1777 - 1.0889 = 0.0888

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 1.0889 - 1.0617 = 0.0272

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0272 / 0.0888 = 0.3063

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
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Extra SL data

                              Array
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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 4h) Initial Risk: -8.155% (0.0888)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.883% 0.2R -2.856% 0.4R 0.7× 12
2h +2.893% 0.4R -2.856% 0.4R 1.0× 24
4h ★ +4.913% 0.6R -2.856% 0.4R 1.7× 48
8h +9.793% 1.2R -2.856% 0.4R 3.4× 96
12h +11.076% 1.4R -2.856% 0.4R 3.9× 144

computed 2 months ago

Commentaires

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