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Long Trade on ARB

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02 Aug 2026 at 15:10:04 hyperliquid

Long Trade on ARB (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 5526.54 ARB at 0.0813$ per unit. Take profit: 0.08338 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.0799 (1.78 %)

ARB LONG momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 02 Aug 2026 15:10 → 16:15 · 1 hour

Position

Entry 0.08135$

Qty 5526.5412 ARB

Size 449.5841$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)

Risk Setup

TP 0.08338 (+2.5%)

TP $ 11.22$

SL 0.0799 (-1.78%)

SL $ 8.01$

RR 1.4

Status win PnL +0.12% / +0.55$ MAE -0.02% MFE +0.31% 0.2R expires 02 Aug 16:20 Exit rank_decay: long rank=12 > threshold=10/37

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 56666)
#8 / 37 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 02/08/2026 15:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.7394

Quality Score
0.588
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
92 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/08 15:00

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#8 / 37 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
92 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-5 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.78 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#8 / 37 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
92 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-5 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.78 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Supply Distance (ATR)
1h near 0.11×ATR
4h clear 5.55×ATR
1d clear 27.22×ATR
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up mid OK
4h ↑ up mid OK
1d ↓ down mid OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : range

rules_regime : range_low

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : range_high (0)

Operational (4H) : bear_medium (-1)

Tactical (1H) : range_low (0)

02/08 15:00

Score : -1

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3)

01/08 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (-2)

02/08 12:00

Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1)

02/08 14:00

Score : -4 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 1243
range compression range_breakdown_risk
Strategic range compression — 0
Operational bear transition — -1
Tactical range compression — 0
Micro — —
MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 0.57
Transition risk : 0.43
Score contribution (this trade) -1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score —
Impulse : —
% Positive (universe)
15m —
1h —
4h —
24h —
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m — —
4h — —
24h — —
Dispersion : —
Universe : —
Regime confidence : 0.49
Snapshot évalué : 02/08 15:00 · env range_with_pressure

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1H
Calculé le 02/08/2026 15:00
Score brut
0.5884
Score SMA
0.5959
Rank
#8 / 37
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7394
Rank Norm SMA
0.7502
Calculé le
02/08/2026 15:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6546 r1h: 0.815% · r4h: 1.454% · r1d: 4.71% · r3d: 4.63% · ema21_slope: 0.1218% · dist_ema21: 1.156%
Force Relative 25% 0.6315 rs_1h: 0.520% · rs_4h: 0.761% · rs_1d: 3.21% · rs_3d: 6.46% · beta_24h: 1.008
Volume 20% 0.2060 rvol_20: 0.65× · zscore_50: -0.386 · trend: -44.09%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6195 ADX: 30.5 (trend) · Chop: 54.9 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 0.761% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 1.2h) Initial Risk: -1.782% (0.0015)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.307% 0.2R -0.025% 0.0R 12.5× 12
1.2h ★ +0.307% 0.2R -0.025% 0.0R 12.5× 13
2h +0.307% 0.2R -0.246% 0.1R 1.3× 24
4h +0.602% 0.3R -0.246% 0.1R 2.5× 48
8h +0.602% 0.3R -1.266% 0.7R 0.5× 96
12h +0.602% 0.3R -1.426% 0.8R 0.4× 144

computed 2 months ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 1.26
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↓ down range range moderate grind compression bear_high
52%
noisy_chop 38% mid near 0.4ATR — 0.71 bear_high -5.92% -0.84 01/08 20:00
4h ↔ neutral range range moderate balanced normal bear_high
59%
noisy_chop 41% mid — — 0.67 bear_high -1.13% +0.53 02/08 12:00
1h ↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind normal bull_high
65%
noisy_chop 48% mid — near 0.1ATR 0.59 range_low +0.00% +0.23 02/08 14:00
15m ↑ up range range strong fading normal bull_low
47%
noisy_chop 49% late — near -0.5ATR — range_low +0.52% +0.02 02/08 14:30
5m —

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down mid 21b — 4.735×ATR p61 +0.163×ATR p21
4h ↑ up mid 13b — 4.289×ATR p79 +0.704×ATR p73
1h ↑ up mid 4b — 2.366×ATR p37 +0.797×ATR p71
15m ↓ down late 16b — 0×ATR p0 +2.714×ATR p100

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - BUY

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 0.07990244
  2. tp_price: 0.08338375
  3. atr: 0.00057903
  4. expires_at: 2026-08-03T01:10:04+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 6
  2. total: 38
  3. score: 0.6546
  4. delta_2h: 0.0704
  5. extension_atr: 1
  6. trend_phase:
  7. trend_direction:
  8. rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.7394
  9. confidence: 0.915

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.08135 0.0799 0.08338 1.4 0.1853
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.08135
  • Stop Loss: 0.0799
  • Take Profit: 0.08338

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.0799 - 0.08135 = -0.00145

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.08135 - 0.08338 = -0.00203

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00203 / -0.00145 = 1.4

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
449.5841 100 5526.5412 4.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss -0.00145

Taille de position = 8 / -0.00145 = -5517.24

Taille de position USD = -5517.24 x 0.08135 = -448.83

Donc, tu peux acheter -5517.24 avec un stoploss a 0.0799

Avec un position size USD de -448.83$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -5517.24 x -0.00145 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -5517.24 x -0.00203 = 11.2

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 11.2$

Résumé

  • Taille de position -5517.24
  • Taille de position USD -448.83
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 11.2
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 1.4

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
2.5 % 11.22 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
1.78 % 8.01 $
PNL PNL %
0.55 $ 0.12
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-0.0246 % 1.38 % 3
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.08135 0.0799 0.08338 1.4 0.1853
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.08135
  • Stop Loss: 0.0799
  • Take Profit: 0.08338

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.0799 - 0.08135 = -0.00145

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.08135 - 0.08338 = -0.00203

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00203 / -0.00145 = 1.4

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
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Extra SL data

                              Array
(
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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 1.2h) Initial Risk: -1.782% (0.0015)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.307% 0.2R -0.025% 0.0R 12.5× 12
1.2h ★ +0.307% 0.2R -0.025% 0.0R 12.5× 13
2h +0.307% 0.2R -0.246% 0.1R 1.3× 24
4h +0.602% 0.3R -0.246% 0.1R 2.5× 48
8h +0.602% 0.3R -1.266% 0.7R 0.5× 96
12h +0.602% 0.3R -1.426% 0.8R 0.4× 144

computed 2 months ago

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