Long Trade on ARB (CatchTheWave)
With 56485.21 ARB at 0.0812$ per unit. Take profit: 0.08146 (0.34 %) & Stop Loss: 0.08104 (0.17 %)
Long Trade on ARB (CatchTheWave)
With 56485.21 ARB at 0.0812$ per unit. Take profit: 0.08146 (0.34 %) & Stop Loss: 0.08104 (0.17 %)
Position
Entry 0.08118$
Qty 56485.2079 ARB
Size 4585.4692$ (margin 100$) (leverage 46)
Risk Setup
TP 0.08146 (+0.34%)
TP $ 15.82$
SL 0.08104 (-0.17%)
SL $ 7.91$
RR 2
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.7221
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.39×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 5.43×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 27.22×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : range rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (-1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 02/08 16:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.319641 15m : 0.33293 |
1H_regime : bull_medium 15m_regime : range_low 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 01/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (-2) 02/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_medium (+1) 02/08 16:00 Score : -4 / ±6 |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6183 | r1h: 0.074% · r4h: 0.967% · r1d: 3.73% · r3d: 4.25% · ema21_slope: 0.1052% · dist_ema21: 0.902% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5959 | rs_1h: 0.053% · rs_4h: 0.534% · rs_1d: 2.34% · rs_3d: 6.40% · beta_24h: 1.025 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1465 | rvol_20: 0.24× · zscore_50: -0.802 · trend: -50.43% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6210 | ADX: 30.5 (trend) · Chop: 54.7 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.727% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.197% | 1.1R | -0.037% | 0.2R | 5.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.813% | 4.7R | -0.037% | 0.2R | 22.0× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.813% | 4.7R | -0.037% | 0.2R | 22.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.813% | 4.7R | -1.207% | 7.0R | 0.7× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.813% | 4.7R | -1.688% | 9.8R | 0.5× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | near 0.4ATR | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -5.92% | -0.84 | 01/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | — | — | 0.67 | bear_high | -0.92% | +0.55 | 02/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bull_medium |
64%
|
noisy_chop 46% | early | — | near 0.4ATR | 0.59 | range_low | -0.05% | +0.19 | 02/08 16:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | range_low |
43%
|
noisy_chop 51% | early | — | — | — | range_low | +0.34% | +0.07 | 02/08 16:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 21b | — | 4.735×ATR | p61 | +0.163×ATR | p21 |
| 4h | ↑ up | late | 14b | — | 4.736×ATR | p82 | +0.788×ATR | p78 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 6b | — | 2.314×ATR | p32 | +0.463×ATR | p52 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 7b | — | 2.053×ATR | p27 | -0.473×ATR | p44 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
63258.3
0.00219251
63397
0.319641
63123.6
0.0043304
63397
0.33293
63472.9
-0.000377019
63449
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0.2313
0.5518
0.8841
0.0977
0.1175
1
1.1553
3.1078
0.6
0.4
1
15
1
0.4661
0.3026
5.2799
0.55
0.5833
3.0797
3.1078
0.0187
0.282
0.24
-0.169
0.4922
0.5669
0.6605
0.8841
-1.4778
11.2732
1
0
1
Signal Details
Market Structure Score: 1
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 14:00:00 | 0.081 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 14:35:00 | 0.08139 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 14:45:00 | 0.08015 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 16:00:00 | 0.08073 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 16:25:00 | 0.08042 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 16:45:00 | 0.08098 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 18:40:00 | 0.08172 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 19:10:00 | 0.08128 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 19:55:00 | 0.0816 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 20:20:00 | 0.08116 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 23:15:00 | 0.07865 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 02:15:00 | 0.08051 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 05:15:00 | 0.08069 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 05:30:00 | 0.08225 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 09:00:00 | 0.08224 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 11:45:00 | 0.08148 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 12:45:00 | 0.08181 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 14:45:00 | 0.08015 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 18:30:00 | 0.08172 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 20:15:00 | 0.08116 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 16:00:00 | 0.07769 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-30 17:00:00 | 0.07868 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-31 12:00:00 | 0.07552 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-31 17:00:00 | 0.07771 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 00:00:00 | 0.07893 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 06:00:00 | 0.0776 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 13:00:00 | 0.07883 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 18:00:00 | 0.07687 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 05:00:00 | 0.08225 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 14:00:00 | 0.08015 | ↓ Low |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.08118 | 0.08104 | 0.08146 | 2 | 0.1939 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.08104 - 0.08118 = -0.00014
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.08118 - 0.08146 = -0.00028
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00028 / -0.00014 = 2
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4585.4692 | 100 | 56485.2079 | 46.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / -0.00014 = -57142.86
Taille de position USD = -57142.86 x 0.08118 = -4638.86
Donc, tu peux acheter -57142.86 avec un stoploss a 0.08104
Avec un position size USD de -4638.86$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -57142.86 x -0.00014 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -57142.86 x -0.00028 = 16
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 16$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.34 % | 15.82 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.17 % | 7.91 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 15.82 $ | 0.34 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.037 % | 21.45 % | 3 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.08118 | 0.08104 | 0.08146 | 2 | 0.1939 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.08104 - 0.08118 = -0.00014
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.08118 - 0.08146 = -0.00028
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00028 / -0.00014 = 2
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.197% | 1.1R | -0.037% | 0.2R | 5.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.813% | 4.7R | -0.037% | 0.2R | 22.0× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.813% | 4.7R | -0.037% | 0.2R | 22.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.813% | 4.7R | -1.207% | 7.0R | 0.7× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.813% | 4.7R | -1.688% | 9.8R | 0.5× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
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