Long Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 479328.94 PENGU at 0.00615$ per unit. Take profit: 0.00618 (0.54 %) & Stop Loss: 0.00613 (0.28 %)
Long Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 479328.94 PENGU at 0.00615$ per unit. Take profit: 0.00618 (0.54 %) & Stop Loss: 0.00613 (0.28 %)
Position
Entry 0.006147$
Qty 479328.9395 PENGU
Size 2946.435$ (margin 100$) (leverage 29)
Risk Setup
TP 0.00618 (+0.54%)
TP $ 15.82$
SL 0.00613 (-0.28%)
SL $ 8.15$
RR 1.94
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.7602
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.78×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 0.56×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.75×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : range rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (-1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 02/08 19:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.566528 15m : 0.401327 |
1H_regime : bull_high 15m_regime : range_low 5m_regime : bear_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 01/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 02/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 02/08 18:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | expansion | — | -1 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5833 | r1h: -0.402% · r4h: -0.032% · r1d: 4.51% · r3d: 2.20% · ema21_slope: 0.1527% · dist_ema21: 0.765% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5606 | rs_1h: -0.298% · rs_4h: -0.241% · rs_1d: 3.41% · rs_3d: 4.25% · beta_24h: 0.614 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1713 | rvol_20: 0.09× · zscore_50: -0.431 · trend: -69.68% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7559 | ADX: 37.4 (trend) · Chop: 45.1 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.833% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.244% | 0.9R | -0.488% | 1.8R | 0.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.244% | 0.9R | -0.862% | 3.1R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.244% | 0.9R | -1.318% | 4.8R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.244% | 0.9R | -2.099% | 7.6R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.244% | 0.9R | -2.229% | 8.1R | 0.1× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | pullback | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
63%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | near -0.4ATR | — | 0.75 | bear_high | -5.92% | +0.49 | 01/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | strong | balanced | compression | bull_high |
65%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | — | — | 0.71 | range_high | -0.53% | +0.64 | 02/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | range | bullish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bull_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 32% | early | — | — | 0.54 | range_low | +0.02% | +0.13 | 02/08 18:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bull_low |
47%
|
noisy_chop 37% | mid | near -0.9ATR | near -0.1ATR | — | range_low | +0.40% | -0.04 | 02/08 18:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 29b | — | 2.097×ATR | p0 | +0.467×ATR | p48 |
| 4h | ↑ up | mid | 7b | — | 2.95×ATR | p42 | +0.853×ATR | p75 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 1b | — | 1.733×ATR | p11 | -0.09×ATR | p11 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 5b | — | 3.275×ATR | p52 | -0.617×ATR | p59 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
63363.2
-0.000350885
63341
0.566528
63237.2
0.00164027
63341
0.401327
63370
-0.000473785
63340
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0.006271
197
0.6963
0.4813
0.2895
0.2105
0.3542
1
0.5478
0.4892
0.6279
0.06
0.5141
0.8223
0.1256
0.1116
1
0.3184
1.8411
0.5
0.5
1
2
1
0.5791
0.3636
3.5676
0.5
1.1915
1.8312
1.8411
0.7454
0.3541
0.1
-0.3337
0.3691
0.3959
0.8937
0.8223
-2.4825
11.4871
1
1
0
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (10)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19:15 | 0.00614700 | 0% |
| 2 | 19:21 | 0.00614900 | +0.033% |
| 3 | 19:27 | 0.00614800 | +0.016% |
| 4 | 19:33 | 0.00614600 | -0.016% |
| 5 | 19:38 | 0.00614700 | 0% |
| 6 | 19:44 | 0.00615000 | +0.049% |
| 7 | 19:50 | 0.00614500 | -0.033% |
| 8 | 19:56 | 0.00614600 | -0.016% |
| 9 | 20:04 | 0.00614300 | -0.065% |
| 10 | 20:09 | 0.00612300 | -0.39% |
Market Structure Score: 1
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 18:15:00 | 0.006214 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 18:30:00 | 0.006174 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 19:30:00 | 0.006185 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 20:15:00 | 0.006212 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 20:25:00 | 0.006201 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 20:30:00 | 0.006212 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 20:55:00 | 0.0062 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 21:15:00 | 0.0062 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 21:20:00 | 0.006271 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 23:15:00 | 0.006147 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 10:15:00 | 0.006033 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 12:15:00 | 0.006253 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 14:00:00 | 0.006159 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 15:00:00 | 0.006221 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 16:45:00 | 0.006215 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 17:00:00 | 0.006176 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 18:15:00 | 0.006214 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 18:30:00 | 0.006174 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 21:15:00 | 0.006271 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 23:15:00 | 0.006147 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 13:00:00 | 0.006117 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-31 14:00:00 | 0.005936 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 04:00:00 | 0.006184 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 16:00:00 | 0.005975 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 18:00:00 | 0.005857 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 03:00:00 | 0.006201 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 10:00:00 | 0.006033 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 12:00:00 | 0.006253 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 21:00:00 | 0.006271 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 23:00:00 | 0.006161 | ↓ Low |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006147 | 0.00613 | 0.00618 | 1.94 | 0.008119 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.00613 - 0.006147 = -1.7E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006147 - 0.00618 = -3.3E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -3.3E-5 / -1.7E-5 = 1.9412
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2946.435 | 100 | 479328.9395 | 29.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / -1.7E-5 = -470588.24
Taille de position USD = -470588.24 x 0.006147 = -2892.71
Donc, tu peux acheter -470588.24 avec un stoploss a 0.00613
Avec un position size USD de -2892.71$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -470588.24 x -1.7E-5 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -470588.24 x -3.3E-5 = 15.53
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 15.53$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.54 % | 15.82 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.28 % | 8.15 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.15 $ | -0.28 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.488 % | 176.43 % | 7 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006147 | 0.00613 | 0.00618 | 1.94 | 0.008119 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.00613 - 0.006147 = -1.7E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006147 - 0.00618 = -3.3E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -3.3E-5 / -1.7E-5 = 1.9412
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.244% | 0.9R | -0.488% | 1.8R | 0.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.244% | 0.9R | -0.862% | 3.1R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.244% | 0.9R | -1.318% | 4.8R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.244% | 0.9R | -2.099% | 7.6R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.244% | 0.9R | -2.229% | 8.1R | 0.1× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
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